Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

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Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsIA The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]

Background

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap
Patty
Judge
Rob
Hogg
Bob
Krause
Tom
Fiegen
None/Other Undecided
Des Moines Register May 30 – June 2, 2016 542 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 42% 25% 6% 5% 6% 15%
KBUR-AM 1490 May 31 – June 1, 2016 1,361 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 37% 31% 3% 6% 23%

Results

Файл:Iowa Democratic Senate primary, 2016.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[25] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[26] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[27] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016

Debates

Dates Location Grassley Judge Link
October 19, 2016 Sioux City, Iowa Шаблон:Yes Шаблон:Yes Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Patty
Judge (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,781 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,598 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 39% 5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer November 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 33% 2% 4%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2016 700 ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% 32% 4% 5%
Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 1,469 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 1,226 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 40% 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 867 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 41% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 984 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 41% 3%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive October 20–26, 2016 791 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 38% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Шаблон:Webarchive October 8–16, 2016 1,135 ± 0.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 40% 5%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 523 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 41% 3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 917 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 39% 11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer October 3–6, 2016 642 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 36% 2% 6%
Loras College September 20–22, 2016 491 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 37% 9%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive September 13–21, 2016 612 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 43% 2%
Monmouth University September 12–14, 2016 404 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 39% 2% 3%
RABA Research Шаблон:Webarchive September 6–8, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 37% 13%
Emerson College Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 600 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 40% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Webarchive August 30–31, 2016 827 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 43% 8%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 987 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 38% 1% 15%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive August 9–16, 2016 846 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 42% 6%
Suffolk University August 8–10, 2016 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 899 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 42% 1% 5%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 998 ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 37% 2% 16%
Monmouth University July 8–11, 2016 401 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 822 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 42% 1% 5%
Loras College Шаблон:Webarchive June 24–28, 2016 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 45% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 897 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 9–13, 2016 630 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 41% 11%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Rob Hogg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Rob
Hogg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 28% 19%
Public Policy Polling December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 29% 17%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 29% 18%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 28% 20%

Шаблон:External links

with Tom Fiegen
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Tom
Fiegen (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 29% 18%
Public Policy Polling December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 29% 16%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 30% 16%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 30% 17%
with Bob Krause
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Bob
Krause (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 8–10, 2016 1,901 ± 2.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 28% 20%
Public Policy Polling December 10–13, 2015 1,426 ± 2.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 28% 19%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2015 1,668 ± 2.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 28% 21%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 1,500 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 29% 20%
with Tom Vilsack
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Tom
Vilsack (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,192 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 15–19, 2014 914 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling February 20–23, 2014 869 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 41% 11%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:2016 United States elections