Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsKY The 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul filed for re-election in December 2015, and Mayor Jim Gray of Lexington filed to run against Paul for the Senate in late January 2016. In the general election, Paul defeated Gray by 14.5 points.

Background

If Paul had become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law would have prohibited him from simultaneously running for re-election. In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up. Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic governor Steve Beshear's veto could have been overridden with a simple majority). However, the Democrats retained their 54–46 majority in the State House.

Paul was running for both president and re-election, and considered several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, but he dropped his presidential bid to focus on re-election to the Senate on February 3, 2016. His supporters said the law does not apply to federal offices and suggested changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination. However, this option would have only worked until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have had to appear on the ballot twice in November if he had won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options that were open to him included running for both offices and leaving it to Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican secretary of state who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he could have run for re-election and hoped to win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.

In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as vice president on Mitt Romney's ticket. David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.

In August 2015, the central committee of the Kentucky Republican Party voted to hold a caucus in 2016, allowing Paul to simultaneously run for re-nomination for his seat and the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. State law would still bar Paul from appearing twice on the ballot in the general election. However, on February 3, 2016, Rand Paul dropped out of the 2016 presidential campaign, allowing him to focus on his reelection bid.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• James Gould, financial analyst and Navy veteran
• Rand Paul, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Stephen Slaughter, engineer

Declined

• Andy Barr, U.S. Representative
• James Comer, former Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2015 (running for KY-01)
• Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative
• Hal Heiner, Kentucky Secretary of Education and Workforce Development, former Louisville Metro Council member and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2015
• Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative
• Hal Rogers, U.S. Representative
• Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative
• Catherine Todd Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia
• Mike Duncan, former chairman of the Republican National Committee
• Trey Grayson, former director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Results

Файл:2016 Kentucky Senate Republican primary election results map by county.svg

Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jim Gray, Mayor of Lexington
• Rory Houlihan
• Jeff Kender, steelworker
• Ron Leach, physician assistant, U.S. Army veteran, and nominee for KY-02 in 2014
• Tom Recktenwald, retired technology teacher and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014
• Grant Short, pilot and businessman
• Sellus Wilder, former Frankfort City Commissioner

Declined

• Rocky Adkins, Majority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives (running for reelection)
• Adam Edelen, former state auditor of Kentucky
• Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008
• Andrew Horne, attorney, retired United States Marine Corps lieutenant colonel and candidate for KY-03 in 2006
• Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former Attorney General of Kentucky (running for reelection)
• Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996
• Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative
• Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015
• Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014
• Heather French Henry, former Commissioner of the Kentucky Department of Veterans Affairs and former Miss America
• Ashley Judd, actress and political activist
• Crit Luallen, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts
• Jennifer Moore, former Chairwoman of the Kentucky Democratic Party
• David Tandy, President of the Louisville Metro Council

Results

Файл:2016 Kentucky Senate Democratic primary election results map by county.svg

Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Paul	Gray	Link
October 31, 2016	Lexington, Kentucky	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rand Paul (R)	Jim Gray (D)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,315	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	46%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–November 6, 2016	1,155	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	46%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–November 3, 2016	843	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	45%	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 27–November 2, 2016	635	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	46%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 26–November 1, 2016	499	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	44%	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	424	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	46%	2%
Western Kentucky University	October 25–30, 2016	602	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55%	39%	6%
RunSwitch Public Relations (R) Шаблон:Webarchive	October 26–28, 2016	811	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%	42%	6%
Cofounder Pulse Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	October 26–28, 2016	1,016	± 3.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35%	28%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38%
Cofounder Pulse Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	October 12–15, 2016	816	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33%	27%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 40%
Cofounder Pulse Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	September 14–16, 2016	834	± 3.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33%	25%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 42%
Cofounder Pulse Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	August 2–4, 2016	508	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 59%	41%	0%
Harper Polling	July 31–August 1, 2016	500	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	38%	13%
Cofounder Pulse Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	March 30–April 1, 2016	758	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28%	26%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47%

with Thomas Massie

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Thomas Massie (R)	Steve Beshear (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 18–21, 2015	1,108	± 2.9%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–10, 2014	991	± 3.1%	30%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45%	—	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Thomas Massie (R)	Crit Luallen (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 18–21, 2015	1,108	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37%	35%	—	28%

with Rand Paul

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rand Paul (R)	Steve Beshear (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 18–21, 2015	1,108	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49%	39%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–10, 2014	991	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50%	41%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rand Paul (R)	Crit Luallen (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 18–21, 2015	1,108	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%	37%	—	12%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton)
• Breathitt (Largest city: Jackson)
• Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
• Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville)
• Magoffin (Largest city: Salyersville)
• Powell (Largest city: Stanton)
• McLean (Largest city: Livermore)
• Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty)
• Knott (largest municipality: Hindman)
• Henderson (Largest city: Henderson)
• Muhlenberg (Largest city: Central City)
• Floyd (largest municipality: Prestonburg)
• Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
• Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
• Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville)
• Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg)
• Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton)
• Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet) (previously tied)

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Rand Paul (R) for Senate
• Jim Gray (D) for Senate