Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates
Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsLA The 2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Under Louisiana's "jungle primary" system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters could vote for any candidate. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election, a runoff election was held December 10[1] between the top two candidates in the primary, Republican John Neely Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell, where Kennedy won with 60.65% of the vote, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican senator in the state since Reconstruction, giving Senate Republicans 52 seats in the 115th Congress. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).
Incumbent Republican Senator David Vitter unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Louisiana in 2015,[2] and in his concession speech he announced that he would not seek re-election to the Senate in 2016.[3]
In addition to Kennedy and Campbell, four other candidates — Republicans Charles Boustany, John Fleming, and David Duke, and Democrat Caroline Fayard — qualified to participate at a debate at Dillard University, a historically black college, on November 2, 2016[4][5] This election is the last United States Senate runoff election in Louisiana.
Candidates
Republican Party
Declared
- Charles Boustany, U.S. Representative[6][7]
- Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford, business appraiser[8]
- Joseph Cao, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Louisiana attorney general in 2011[9][10]
- David Duke, former state representative, former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan and perennial candidate[11][12][13]
- John Fleming, U.S. Representative[14]
- John Neely Kennedy, state treasurer, Democratic candidate for this seat in 2004[15] and nominee for the U.S. Senate Class 2 in 2008
- Rob Maness, retired United States Air Force Colonel, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[16]
- Charles Eugene Marsala, financial advisor and former mayor of Atherton, California[8]
Withdrew
- Abhay Patel, businessman[17][18][19]
Declined
- Scott Angelle, Public Service Commissioner, former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana, and candidate for governor in 2015 (running for LA-03)[20][21][22]
- Jay Dardenne, Louisiana Commissioner of Administration, former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana and candidate for governor in 2015[23][24]
- Melinda Schwegmann, former lieutenant governor of Louisiana, former state representative, and candidate for governor in 1995[17][25]
- Zach Dasher, pharmaceutical representative, cousin of the Robertson family and candidate for LA-05 in 2014[26][27]
- Brett Geymann, former state representative (running for LA-03)[26][28]
- Clay Higgins, former St. Landry Parish Sheriff's captain (running for LA-03)[29][30]
- Paul Hollis, state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[17][25][31]
- Bobby Jindal, former Governor of Louisiana[32]
- Vance McAllister, former U.S. representative and candidate for the state senate in 2015[33]
- Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2002[34][35]
- Eric Skrmetta, Public Service Commissioner[26][36][37]
- David Vitter, incumbent U.S. Senator and nominee for governor in 2015[3]
- John Young, former president of Jefferson Parish and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2015[31][38]
Democratic Party
Declared
- Foster Campbell, Public Service Commissioner, former State Senator, candidate for governor in 2007 and for LA-04 in 1980, 1988 and 1990[39]
- Derrick Edwards, attorney and disability rights activist[17]
- Caroline Fayard, attorney and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010[40]
- Gary Landrieu, building contractor, candidate for the New Orleans City Council in 2012, candidate for LA-02 in 2012 and 2014 and cousin of former U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu[41]
- Vinny Mendoza, USAF Ret. Veteran, organic farmer and 1st CD candidate in 2004, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014,[42]
- Josh Pellerin, businessman[43][44][45]
- Peter Williams, tree farmer, candidate for LA-06 in 2014 and Independent candidate for LA-05 in 2013[8]
Declined
- Jim Bernhard, president of Bernhard Capital Partners, founder and former CEO of The Shaw Group and former chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party[46][47][48]
- Don Cazayoux, former U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Middle District of Louisiana[49][50]
- John Georges, businessman, candidate for governor in 2007 and candidate for Mayor of New Orleans in 2010[47]
- Kip Holden, Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2015 (running for LA-02)[51][52][53]
- Robert Johnson, state representative and candidate for LA-05 in 2013[54][55]
- Eric LaFleur, state senator[21][56][57]
- Mary Landrieu, former U.S. Senator[58]
- Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana[59][60]
- Charlie Melancon, former U.S. Representative and nominee in 2010[61][62]
- Jacques Roy, Mayor of Alexandria[46][54][55][56]
- Gary Smith, Jr., state senator[17][26][49]
Libertarian Party
Declared
- Thomas Clements, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (also ran for President of the United States)[41][63]
- Le Roy Gillam, minister[41]
Independents
Declared
- Beryl Billiot, restaurateur and candidate for governor in 2015[11]
- Troy Hebert, former commissioner of the Louisiana Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control and former state senator[64]
- Bob Lang, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for governor in 2011[8]
- Kaitlin Marone, stand-up comedian[41][65]
- Gregory Taylor, unemployed janitor[8][66]
- Arden Wells, perennial candidate[41]
Jungle primary
Debates
| Dates | Location | Kennedy | Campbell | Boustany | Fayard | Fleming | Duke | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18, 2016 | Ruston, Louisiana | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Not invited | Full debate - C-SPAN |
| November 2, 2016 | New Orleans, Louisiana | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Charles Boustany (R) |
Foster Campbell (D) |
David Duke (R) |
Caroline Fayard (D) |
John Fleming (R) |
John Kennedy (R) |
Rob Maness (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 982 | ± 4.6% | 14% | 13% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 21% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 6% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 840 | ± 4.6% | 15% | 14% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 20% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 6% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 646 | ± 4.6% | 15% | 14% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 19% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 5% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 546 | ± 4.6% | 13% | 13% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 21% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 5% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 470 | ± 4.6% | 13% | 13% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 21% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 23% | 4% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| Southern Media and Opinion Research | October 19–21, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 16% | — | 12% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 27% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 15–21, 2016 | 614 | ± 3.0% | 12% | 17% | 4% | 12% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 18% | 4% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 17% |
| University of New Orleans Шаблон:Webarchive | October 15–21, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 15% | 15% | 2% | 10% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% | 4% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| FOX 8/Mason-Dixon | October 20, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 19% | 5% | 12% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 3% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 13% |
| Market Research Insight | October 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 16% | 14% | — | 12% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center|17% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 34% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | October 11–15, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 25% | 3% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 10% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | September 22–24, 2016 | 905 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 15% | 3% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 4% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 25% |
| Market Research Insight | September 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 12% | 10% | — | 11% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 18% | — | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
| Southern Media and Opinion Research | September 15–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 15% | 9% | 3% | 11% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 17% | 3% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 26% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (D) | August 29 – September 1, 2016 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 18% | 4% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 31% |
| The Hayride/Remington Research | August 29–30, 2016 | 1,017 | ± 3.2% | 13% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 16% | 6% | 12% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 27% | 4% | — | 15% |
| GBA Strategies | June 6–9, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 15% | — | 14% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% | 6% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Шаблон:Webarchive | May 31 – June 2, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 14% | — | 9% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 3% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 33% |
| Southern Media and Opinion Research | May 19–23, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 10% | 9% | — | 4% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 4% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 32% |
| SurveyUSA | March 4–8, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 12% | — | 10% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 6% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 15% |
| Southern Media and Opinion Research | February 2–4, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 10% | 7% | — | 4% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% | 7% | — | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 30% |
| SurveyUSA | December 4–7, 2015 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 23% | — | – | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 9% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Шаблон:Nowrap error |
Scott Шаблон:Nowrap |
Charles Шаблон:Nowrap |
John Шаблон:Nowrap |
John Шаблон:Nowrap |
Mitch Шаблон:Nowrap |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Nowrap | Шаблон:Nowrap | 600 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 15% | 5% | 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 30% | 11% |
| Шаблон:Nowrap | Шаблон:Nowrap | 600 | ± 4% | – | 13% | 7% | 18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 23% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Maps
-
Support for Boustany by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend -
Support for Campbell by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend -
Support for Edwards by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend -
Support for Fayard by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend -
Support for Fleming by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend -
Support for Kennedy by parish:
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
Runoff
Polling
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Шаблон:Nowrap error |
John Neely Kennedy (R) |
Caroline Fayard (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | August 29–September 1, 2016 | 605 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 38% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | March 4–8, 2016 | 600 | Шаблон:Nowrap | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 34% | 12% |
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Шаблон:Nowrap error |
David Duke (R) |
Caroline Fayard (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | August 29–September 1, 2016 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 64% | 21% |
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Шаблон:Nowrap error |
Charles Boustany (R) |
John Neely Kennedy (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | March 4–8, 2016 | 600 | Шаблон:Nowrap | 22% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 27% |
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Шаблон:Nowrap error |
Charles Boustany (R) |
Caroline Fayard (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | August 29–September 1, 2016 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 17% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[67] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[69] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[70] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[71] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Parishes that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- East Baton Rouge (Largest city: Baton Rouge)
- East Carroll (Largest city: Lake Providence)
- Assumption (Largest city: Pierrer Part)
- Madison (Largest town: Tallulah)
Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Pointe Coupee (Largest city: New Roads)
References
- Additional candidates
External links
Шаблон:Louisiana elections Шаблон:2016 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,3 8,4 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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