Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Maryland
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Maryland sidebar The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate.[1] Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.
Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.
As of 2023, this is the most recent statewide election in Maryland that a Democrat won without carrying Anne Arundel or Frederick counties. This election was the first time since 1980 that a man won the Class 3 Senate seat in Maryland.
Background
Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history,[2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960.[3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1]
In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices."[4] Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Donna Edwards, U.S. Representative[5]
- Freddy Donald Dickson Jr.[6]
- Ralph Jaffe, perennial candidate[6]
- Theresa Scaldaferri[6]
- Charles U. Smith, perennial candidate[6]
- Violet Staley[6]
- Blaine Taylor[6]
- Ed Tinus, perennial candidate
- Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Representative[7]
- Lih Young, perennial candidate[6]
Declined
- Rushern Baker, Prince George's County Executive (endorsed Chris Van Hollen)[8]
- Anthony Brown, former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland and nominee for Governor of Maryland in 2014 (ran for MD-04)[9]
- Susan L. Burke, attorney[10]
- Elijah Cummings, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[11][12][13]
- John Delaney, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[14]
- Peter Franchot, Comptroller of Maryland[15][16]
- Doug Gansler, former Attorney General of Maryland and candidate for Governor of Maryland in 2014[4][17]
- Steny Hoyer, U.S. Representative and House Minority Whip (ran for re-election)[18]
- Kevin Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive[19]
- Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, nominee for governor in 2002 and nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district in 1986[20][21]
- Barbara Mikulski, incumbent senator[1]
- Heather Mizeur, former state delegate and candidate for governor in 2014[22][23][24]
- Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland (ran for President)[25][26]
- Thomas Perez, United States Secretary of Labor and former secretary of the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation[11][25][27]
- Jamie Raskin, state senator (ran for MD-08)[28]
- Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Mayor of Baltimore[29][30][31][32]
- Dutch Ruppersberger, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[33]
- John Sarbanes, U.S. Representative and son of former U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes (ran for re-election)[34]
- Kenneth Ulman, former Howard County Executive and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014[17][35]
- Benjamin Jealous, former president and CEO of the NAACP[22][36]
- Frank Kratovil, former U.S. Representative[37]
- Kweisi Mfume, former U.S. Representative, former president and CEO of the NAACP and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006[29][38]
Debates
| Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Edwards | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 25, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Donna Edwards |
Chris Van Hollen |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Шаблон:Webarchive | April 18–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | — | 25% |
| Marist College Шаблон:Webarchive | April 5–9, 2016 | 775 | ± 3.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | — | 18% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland Шаблон:Webarchive | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 539 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research | March 28–30, 2016 | 604 | ± 4.9% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | — | 15% |
| University of Baltimore | March 4–9, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | 28% | — | 31% |
| Gonzales Research | February 29 – March 4, 2016 | 411 | ± 5.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | — | 17% |
| Goucher College Шаблон:Webarchive | February 13–18, 2016 | 307 | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
| Gonzales Research | January 11–16, 2016 | 402 | ± 5% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 38% | — | 24% |
| University of Baltimore | November 13–17, 2015 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 19% | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40%[13] | 13% |
| 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | — | 24% | ||||
| Washington Post/University of Maryland | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,006 | ± 3.5% | 20% | 20% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 33%[13] | 27% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) | August 3–9, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 37% | — | 21% |
| Mellman Group (D-Cummings) | March 19–22, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 23% | 22% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 29%[13] | 27% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chris Chaffee, candidate for MD-05 in 2010 and nominee for MD-05 in 2014[6]
- Sean P. Connor[6]
- Richard Douglas, attorney, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[39]
- John Graziani, candidate for MD-04 in 2014[40]
- Greg Holmes, candidate for MD-04 in 2012 and 2014 and Democratic state senate candidate in 2006[40]
- Joseph Hooe, small business owner[41]
- Chrys Kefalas, vice president of executive communications for the National Association of Manufacturers and deputy legal counsel under Governor Bob Ehrlich[42][43][44][45]
- Mark McNicholas[6]
- Lynn Richardson[40]
- Anthony Seda[46]
- Richard Shawver, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006[40]
- Kathy Szeliga, state delegate and House Minority Whip[47]
- Dave Wallace, businessman and nominee for MD-08 in 2014[40][48]
- Garry Thomas Yarrington[6]
Declined
- Kendel Ehrlich, former First Lady of Maryland[11]
- Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, former state delegate and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[49]
- Mary Kane, former Secretary of State of Maryland and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010[48][49]
- Allan Kittleman, Howard County Executive[11]
- Connie Morella, former U.S. Representative and former United States Ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development[50]
- Laura Neuman, former Anne Arundel County Executive[38][51]
- Boyd Rutherford, Lieutenant Governor of Maryland[11]
- Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006[16][52]
- Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for Maryland's 6th congressional district in 2014 (moved to Florida)[11][53][54]
- Ben Carson, author and retired director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital (running for President)[55]
- Robert Ehrlich, former governor of Maryland[25][56]
- Barry Glassman, Harford County Executive[57]
- Andy Harris, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[58][59]
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland[16]
- Steve Schuh, Anne Arundel County Executive[11][60]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kathy Szeliga |
Richard Douglas |
Barry Glassman |
Chrys Kefalas |
Anthony Seda |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College Шаблон:Webarchive | April 5–9, 2016 | 368 | ± 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 20% | 13% | – | 9% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 57% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland Шаблон:Webarchive | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 283 | ± 7.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 15% | 9% | – | 11% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 46% |
| University of Baltimore | March 4–8, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 6% | 1% | – | 2% | <1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 79% |
| University of Baltimore | November 13–17, 2015 | 307 | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 15% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 59% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.[61]
Third party and independent candidates
Green Party
- Margaret Flowers, former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host[62][63][64][65]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
Libertarian Party
General election
Candidates
- Margaret Flowers, (G) former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host[65]
- Kathy Szeliga, (R) state delegate and House Minority Whip
- Chris Van Hollen, (D) U.S. Representative
- Arvin Vohra, (L) nominee for MD-05 in 2012 and for MD-04 in 2014
Debates
| Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Szeliga | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[67] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[69] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[70] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[71] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Van Hollen (D) |
Kathy Szeliga (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,216 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 851 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 66% | 32% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 772 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 67% | 31% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 695 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 740 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
| University of Maryland/Washington Post | September 27–30, 2016 | 706 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 58% | 29% | 5% | 6% |
| Goucher College Шаблон:Webarchive | September 17–20, 2016 | 514 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 24% | 2% | 19% |
| OpinionWorks | August 18–30, 2016 | 754 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 26% | 1% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 25% | — | 22% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
| County | colspan="2" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Chris Van Hollen
Democratic |
colspan="2" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Kathy Szeliga
Republican |
colspan="2" Шаблон:Party shading/Green |Margaret Flowers
Green |
colspan="2" Шаблон:Party shading/Independent |Write-In
Write-In |
Margin | Total
Votes Cast | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |# | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |# | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |% | Шаблон:Party shading/Green |# | Шаблон:Party shading/Green |% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent |# | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent |% | # | % | ||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Allegany | 9761 | 33.52% | 18072 | 62.06% | 1253 | 4.30% | 32 | 0.11% | -8311 | -28.54% | 29118 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Anne Arundel | 127961 | 48.30% | 128268 | 48.42% | 8389 | 3.17% | 305 | 0.12% | -307 | -0.12% | 264923 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Baltimore (City) | 193819 | 82.59% | 29306 | 12.49% | 11053 | 4.71% | 511 | 0.22% | 164513 | 70.10% | 234689 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Baltimore (County) | 217151 | 56.41% | 155079 | 40.29% | 12251 | 3.18% | 463 | 0.12% | 62072 | 16.12% | 384944 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Calvert | 18534 | 40.38% | 25431 | 55.41% | 1855 | 4.04% | 76 | 0.17% | -6897 | -15.03% | 45896 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Caroline | 4596 | 33.16% | 8903 | 64.24% | 349 | 2.52% | 11 | 0.08% | -4307 | -31.08% | 13859 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Carroll | 27649 | 30.62% | 60195 | 66.67% | 2370 | 2.62% | 80 | 0.09% | -32546 | -36.04% | 90294 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Cecil | 14846 | 33.79% | 27372 | 62.31% | 1654 | 3.77% | 58 | 0.13% | -12526 | -28.51% | 43930 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Charles | 48994 | 63.66% | 25507 | 33.14% | 2362 | 3.07% | 105 | 0.14% | 23487 | 30.52% | 76968 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Dorchester | 6697 | 45.14% | 7763 | 52.33% | 360 | 2.43% | 15 | 0.10% | -1066 | -7.19% | 14835 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Frederick | 57084 | 46.57% | 60516 | 49.37% | 4809 | 3.92% | 163 | 0.13% | -3432 | -2.80% | 122572 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Garrett | 2696 | 20.22% | 10210 | 76.58% | 409 | 3.07% | 18 | 0.14% | -7514 | -56.36% | 13333 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Harford | 47858 | 36.22% | 80355 | 60.81% | 3772 | 2.85% | 148 | 0.11% | -32497 | -24.59% | 132133 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Howard | 97622 | 61.32% | 55888 | 35.11% | 5459 | 3.43% | 224 | 0.14% | 41734 | 26.22% | 159193 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Kent | 4709 | 47.63% | 4936 | 49.93% | 237 | 2.40% | 4 | 0.04% | -227 | -2.30% | 9886 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Montgomery | 354149 | 75.13% | 103401 | 21.94% | 13269 | 2.81% | 570 | 0.12% | 250748 | 53.19% | 471389 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Prince George's | 334265 | 87.67% | 34067 | 8.93% | 12305 | 3.23% | 652 | 0.17% | 300198 | 78.73% | 381289 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Queen Anne's | 8472 | 32.41% | 17006 | 65.06% | 640 | 2.45% | 19 | 0.07% | -8534 | -32.65% | 26137 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | St. Mary's | 17980 | 37.31% | 28207 | 58.53% | 1937 | 4.02% | 65 | 0.13% | -10227 | -21.22% | 48189 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Somerset | 4277 | 44.27% | 5178 | 53.60% | 196 | 2.03% | 10 | 0.10% | -901 | -9.33% | 9661 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Talbot | 8967 | 44.21% | 10861 | 53.55% | 435 | 2.14% | 18 | 0.09% | -1894 | -9.34% | 20281 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Washington | 23313 | 36.87% | 37278 | 58.96% | 2545 | 4.03% | 87 | 0.14% | -13965 | -22.09% | 63223 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Wicomico | 18382 | 44.00% | 22027 | 52.73% | 1305 | 3.12% | 61 | 0.15% | -3645 | -8.73% | 41775 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Worcester | 10125 | 36.61% | 16731 | 60.50% | 756 | 2.73% | 41 | 0.15% | -6606 | -23.89% | 27653 |
| Total | 1659907 | 60.89% | 972557 | 35.67% | 89970 | 3.30% | 3736 | 0.14% | 687350 | 25.21% | 2726170 |
Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican
- Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
- Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)
- Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)
- Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Glen Burnie)
- Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
- Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)
See also
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Chris Van Hollen (D) for Senate
- Kathy Szeliga (R) for Senate
- Margaret Flowers (G) for Senate
- Arvin Vohra (L) for Senate
Шаблон:2016 United States elections Шаблон:United States Senate elections Шаблон:Elections in Maryland footer
- ↑ 1,0 1,1 1,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Marbella, Jean "Mikulski's milestone: the Senate's longest-serving woman" The Baltimore Sun January 5, 2011
- ↑ CNN.com: Mikulski makes history while creating 'zone of civility' for Senate women
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 6,00 6,01 6,02 6,03 6,04 6,05 6,06 6,07 6,08 6,09 6,10 6,11 6,12 6,13 6,14 6,15 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокSun endorsementне указан текст - ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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