Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNH The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.^[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.^[2] Governor Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%.^[3] This made the election the closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, and also the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election. Hassan became the first Democratic senator elected in this seat since the latter election and only the second since 1932.

The Democratic Party also flipped New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation. As of 2023, this remains the last time that a Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire has failed to win a majority of the vote or lost any county other than Belknap and Coös. This was the first time since 1932 that a Democrat won a full term to this Senate seat in New Hampshire.

Republican primary

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".^[4] Ultimately, she faced only token opposition.

Candidates

Declared

Tom Alciere
Kelly Ayotte, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
Gerald Beloin, perennial candidate
Stanley Emanuel
Jim Rubens, former state senator, candidate for governor in 1998 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014^[5]

Declined

Ovide Lamontagne, attorney, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for governor in 1996 and 2012^[6]^[7]^[8]
Andrew Hemingway, businessman and candidate for governor in 2014^[7]
Bill O'Brien, state representative and former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives^[7]^[9]^[10]

Polling

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Шаблон:Small	Kelly Ayotte	Ovide Lamontagne	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 9–13, 2015	358	± ?	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \| 57%	32%	—	12%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Maggie Hassan, Governor of New Hampshire^[11]

Declined

Paul Hodes, former U.S. Representative and 2010 nominee^[4]^[12]
Mark Connolly, former deputy secretary of state and director of securities regulation (running for governor)^[13]
John Lynch, former governor of New Hampshire^[14]
Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[15]
Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01)^[16]^[17]
Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. Representative (running for NH-01)^[4]^[18]^[19]
Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor (running for governor)^[20]

Libertarian convention

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.^[21]^[22]

General election

Candidates

Kelly Ayotte (R), incumbent senator
Maggie Hassan (D), Governor of New Hampshire
Brian Chabot (L)
Aaron Day (I), former chairman of the Free State Project and conservative activist^[23]

Debates

Dates	Location	Ayotte	Hassan	Link
September 30, 2016	North Conway, New Hampshire	Participant	Participant	Full debate - YouTube
October 14, 2016	Manchester, New Hampshire	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN
October 27, 2016	Concord, New Hampshire	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN
November 2, 2016	Manchester, New Hampshire	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[24]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[25]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[26]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[27]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[28]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2016

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Ayotte (R)	Maggie Hassan (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	696	± 4.6%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 51%	6%	1%
WMUR/UNH	November 3–6, 2016	707	± 3.7%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 49%	1%	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	672	± 4.6%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	7%	2%
Emerson College	November 4–5, 2016	1,000	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 49%	46%	5%	1%
WMUR/UNH	November 2–5, 2016	645	± 3.7%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	2%	6%
WMUR/UNH	November 1–4, 2016	588	± 3.7%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	2%	6%
WMUR/UNH	October 31 – November 3, 2016	515	± 3.7%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	3%	7%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	672	± 4.6%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	9%	3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	November 1–2, 2016	1,001	± 2.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	44%	—	10%
Suffolk University	October 31 – November 2, 2016	500	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 44%	42%	5%	8%
American Research Group	October 31 – November 2, 2016	600	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 49%	46%	2%	3%
WMUR/UNH	October 30 – November 2, 2016	466	± 3.7%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	3%	8%
UMass Lowell/7News	October 28 – November 2, 2016	695 LV	± 4.3%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	5%	3%
UMass Lowell/7News	October 28 – November 2, 2016	901 RV	± 3.8%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	5%	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	658	± 4.6%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	10%	3%
Public Policy Polling	October 31 – November 1, 2016	781	± 3.5%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	—	7%
WMUR/UNH	October 29 – November 1, 2016	468	± 3.7%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	2%	8%
WBUR/MassINC	October 29 – November 1, 2016	500	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 51%	45%	1%	3%
WBUR/MassINC	October 29 – November 1, 2016	500	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	43%	—	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	635	± 4.6%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	9%	3%
WMUR/UNH	October 28–31, 2016	513	± 3.7%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	2%	8%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	659	± 4.6%	38%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	8%	4%
WMUR/UNH	October 27–30, 2016	463	± 3.7%	45%	45%	2%	8%
WMUR/UNH Шаблон:Webarchive	October 26–30, 2016	641	± 3.9%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	3%	8%
WMUR/UNH	October 26–29, 2016	516	± 3.7%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	3%	8%
InsideSources/NH Journal	October 26–28, 2016	408	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 49%	47%	—	4%
Emerson College	October 23–25, 2016	600	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 50%	44%	6%	1%
Monmouth University	October 22–25, 2016	401	± 4.9%	46%	46%	6%	2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	October 20–24, 2016	768 LV	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	47%	2%	2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	October 20–24, 2016	1,020 RV	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	47%	2%	3%
UMass Amherst/WBZ	October 17–21, 2016	772	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	44%	4%	4%
UMass Amherst/WBZ	October 17–21, 2016	772	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	43%	4%	8%
Emerson College	October 17–19, 2016	900	± 3.2%	45%	45%	10%	1%
WMUR/UNH	October 11–17, 2016	770	± 3.5%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	4%	9%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Шаблон:Webarchive	October 8–16, 2016	569	± 0.5%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	10%	1%
WBUR/MassINC	October 10–12, 2016	501	± 4.4%	47%	47%	2%	5%
WBUR/MassINC	October 10–12, 2016	501	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	45%	2%	6%
7News/UMass Lowell	October 7–11, 2016	517	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	44%	4%	5%
Public Policy Polling	October 7–9, 2016	600	± 4.0%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 44%	—	13%
Suffolk University	October 3–5, 2016	500	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 47%	41%	4%	6%
WBUR/MassINC	September 27–29, 2016	502	± 4.4%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	3%	4%
WBUR/MassINC	September 27–29, 2016	502	± 4.4%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	3%	3%
GBA Strategies	September 25–27, 2016	600	± 4.0%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	7%	2%
GBA Strategies	September 25–27, 2016	600	± 4.0%	47%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 49%	—	4%
American Research Group	September 20–25, 2016	522	± 4.2%	47%	47%	—	6%
Monmouth University	September 17–20, 2016	400	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 47%	45%	2%	5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	September 6–8, 2016	737	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 52%	44%	—	4%
Emerson College	September 3–5, 2016	600	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	46%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Webarchive	August 30–31, 2016	585	± 4.1%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	August 26–28, 2016	977	± 3.0%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	—	8%
WMUR/UNH	August 20–28, 2016	433	± 4.7%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 44%	3%	12%
CBS News/YouGov	August 10–12, 2016	990	± 4.3%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 42%	—	17%
Vox Populi Polling (R)	August 7–8, 2016	820	± 3.4%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	August 5–7, 2016	802	± 3.5%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	—	11%
WBUR/MassINC	July 29 – August 1, 2016	609	± 4.0%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 50%	2%	7%
WBUR/MassINC	July 29 – August 1, 2016	609	± 4.0%	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	2%	11%
GBA Strategies	July 25–27, 2016	600	± 4.0%	47%	47%	2%	4%
InsideSources/NH Journal	July 19–21, 2016	1,166	± 5.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 49%	41%	—	10%
WMUR/UNH	July 9–18, 2016	469	± 4.5%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	3%	11%
American Research Group	June 24–28, 2016	533	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 51%	42%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	June 22–23, 2016	578	± 4.1%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 44%	—	15%
Global Strategy Group Шаблон:Webarchive	June 15–16, 2016	400	± 4.9%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 49%	—	6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Шаблон:Webarchive	June 11–20, 2016	300	± 5.7%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	June 8–9, 2016	649	± 3.9%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 47%	—	8%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University	May 25–28, 2016	405	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	47%	—	5%
Global Strategy Group Шаблон:Webarchive	May 25–26, 2016	400	± 4.9%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 45%	—	12%
WBUR/MassINC	May 12–15, 2016	501	± 4.4%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	2%	4%
Dartmouth College Шаблон:Webarchive	April 11–16, 2016	362	± 5.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 37%	35%	—	28%
WMUR/UNH	April 7–17, 2016	553	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 43%	42%	—	15%
WMUR/UNH	February 20–28, 2016	628	± 3.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	41%	4%	10%
Marist Poll	January 28, 2016	2,258	± 2.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	40%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	January 4–6, 2016	1,036	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 44%	42%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	November 30 – December 2, 2015	990	± 3.1%	42%	42%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	October 16–18, 2015	880	± 3.3%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 44%	—	13%
Gravis Marketing	October 5–6, 2015	1,035	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 52%	42%	—	6%
WMUR/UNH	September 21 – October 2, 2015	519	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	43%	1%	11%
Public Policy Polling	August 21–24, 2015	841	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 44%	43%	—	13%
NBC News/Marist Poll Шаблон:Webarchive	July, 2015	910	± 3.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 50%	42%	—	8%
WMUR/UNH	July 7–20, 2015	472	± 4.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 47%	41%	1%	12%
The Tarrance Group	July 5–6, 2015	600	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 51%	44%	—	5%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates	June 25–28, 2015	500	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 52%	41%	—	7%
WMUR/UNH	May 6–22, 2015	524	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	43%	2%	9%
Gravis Marketing	April 21–22, 2015	1,117	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 51%	43%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	April 9–13, 2015	747	± 3.6%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	—	9%
Gravis Marketing	March 18–19, 2015	1,110	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 47%	45%	—	8%
Public Opinion Strategies	February 17–18, 2015	424	± 4.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	45%	—	9%
NBC News/Marist	February 3–10, 2015	887	± 3.3%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	—	7%
New England College	December 1, 2014	541	± 4.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 48%	43%	4%	5%
Public Policy Polling	January 9–12, 2014	1,354	± 2.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 46%	40%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	September 13–16, 2013	1,038	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	44%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	April 19–21, 2013	933	± 3.2%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	—	10%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Kelly Ayotte

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Ayotte (R)	Ann McLane Kuster (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 9–13, 2015	747	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 49%	38%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kelly Ayotte (R)	Chris Pappas (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 21–24, 2015	841	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center\| 45%	31%	24%

with Jim Rubens

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Rubens (R)	Maggie Hassan (D)	Other	Undecided
WMUR/UNH	August 20–28, 2016	433	± 4.7%	27%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 51%	8%	14%
WMUR/UNH	July 9–18, 2016	469	± 4.2%	30%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 48%	6%	16%
WMUR/UNH	April 7–17, 2016	553	± 4.2%	30%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 46%	—	24%

with Ovide Lamontagne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ovide Lamontagne (R)	Maggie Hassan (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 9–13, 2015	747	± 3.6%	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 54%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ovide Lamontagne (R)	Ann McLane Kuster (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 9–13, 2015	747	± 3.6%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center\| 43%	18%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \| Maggie Hassan (D)	$18,698,223.00	$18,564,772.00	$133,450.00	$0
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \| Kelly Ayotte (R)	$16,409,753.89	$16,197,583.64	$134,182.99	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[29]

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Cheshire (largest city: Keene)
Grafton (largest city: Lebanon)
Merrimack (largest city: Concord)
Strafford (largest city: Dover)
Sullivan (largest city: Claremont)

By congressional district

Hassan won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, and Ayotte won the other that also elected a Democrat.

District	Ayotte	Hassan	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Шаблон:Ushr	49%	47%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Carol Shea-Porter
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	47%	49%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Annie Kuster

Allegations of voting irregularities

In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire.^[30] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on Election Day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire drivers license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact 3 such voters who said that they were college students and kept the drivers license from their home state.^[31]

Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only 4 instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections.^[32] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.^[32]

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:New Hampshire elections Шаблон:2016 United States elections

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[1] Шаблон:Cite web

[seekre-2] 2,0 ^2,1 Шаблон:Cite news

[NHGeneral-3] Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег <ref>; для сносок NHGeneral не указан текст

[pain-4] 4,0 ^4,1 ^4,2 Шаблон:Cite news

[5] Шаблон:Cite web

[6] Шаблон:Cite web

[secretmeeting-7] 7,0 ^7,1 ^7,2 Шаблон:Cite web

[8] Шаблон:Cite web

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[11] Шаблон:Cite news

[prep-12] Шаблон:Cite web

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[29] Шаблон:Cite web

[30] Шаблон:Cite news

[31] Шаблон:Cite news

[New_Hampshire_Public_Radio-32] 32,0 ^32,1 Шаблон:Cite news

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Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

Содержание

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Libertarian convention

General election

Candidates

Debates

Endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Fundraising

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Allegations of voting irregularities

See also

References

External links

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Действия на странице

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