Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Ohio
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election
Шаблон:ElectionsOH The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.
Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.
Republican primary
Republican Senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3][4][5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3][6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2][7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8][9]
Candidates
Declared
- Rob Portman, incumbent senator.[2]
- Don Elijah Eckhart, independent candidate for OH-15 in 2008[10]
Disqualified
Declined
- Josh Mandel, Ohio State Treasurer and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[3][13]
- Steve Stivers, U.S. Representative[3][13]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Don Elijah Eckhart |
Rob Portman |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% | 33% |
Poll source | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Шаблон:Small | Ken Blackwell |
Rob Portman |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 411 | ± 4.8% | 24% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 57% | 20% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kelli Prather, occupational therapist and community organizer[11]
- P.G. Sittenfeld, Cincinnati City Councilman[14][15][16]
- Ted Strickland, former governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative[17]
Withdrawn
- Bob Hagan, former member of the Ohio State Board of Education and former state representative[3][18][19]
Declined
- Joyce Beatty, U.S. Representative[14][20]
- John Boccieri, former U.S. Representative[14][21]
- Jennifer Brunner, judge on the Ohio Tenth District Court of Appeals, former Ohio Secretary of State and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[14][18][22]
- Michael B. Coleman, Mayor of Columbus[14][23][24]
- Richard Cordray, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, former Ohio Attorney General and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000[14]
- Connie Pillich, former state representative and nominee for Ohio State Treasurer in 2014[3][25]
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative[26]
- Betty Sutton, Administrator of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation and former U.S. Representative[14][18]
- Nina Turner, former state senator and nominee for Ohio Secretary of State in 2014[3][27]
- Nan Whaley, Mayor of Dayton[14][28]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelli Prather |
P.G. Sittenfeld |
Ted Strickland |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 6% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 28% |
Public Policy Polling | January 12–14, 2016 | 1,138 | ± ? | 10% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 61% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 360 | ± 5.2% | — | 13% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 65% | 22% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[29]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Candidates
- Rob Portman (R), incumbent senator
- Ted Strickland (D), former governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative
- Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
- Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[30]
- Tom Connors (I)
- James Stahl (Write-in)
Endorsements
Debates
Dates | Location | Portman | Strickland | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 14, 2016 | Youngstown, Ohio | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 17, 2016 | Columbus, Ohio | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 20, 2016 | Cleveland, Ohio | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[31] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report[33] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rob Portman (R) |
Ted Strickland (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,860 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 2,530 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
Emerson College | November 4–5, 2016 | 900 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 28% | 11% | 12% |
The Columbus Dispatch | Oct 27–Nov 5, 2016 | 1,151 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 37% | — | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | November 2–4, 2016 | 1,189 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 39% | 3% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 2,004 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 39% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,728 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016 | 589 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 38% | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 1,586 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,823 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 40% | — | 5% |
Emerson College | October 26–27, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 35% | 4% | 12% |
Suffolk University | October 17–19, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 31% | 6% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 10–16, 2016 | 624 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 41% | 1% | 4% |
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Шаблон:Webarchive | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,307 | ± 0.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
CNN/ORC | October 10–15, 2016 | 774 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 40% | — | 2% |
890 RV | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 40% | — | 2% | |||
NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 10–12, 2016 | 724 LV | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 37% | 3% | 5% |
1,007 RV | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 36% | 3% | 6% | ||
Emerson College | October 10–12, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 30% | 6% | 16% |
Baldwin Wallace University | October 9–11, 2016 | 1,152 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Шаблон:Webarchive | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,304 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 37% | — | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 5–7, 2016 | 997 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 38% | 2% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling | October 5–6, 2016 | 782 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 36% | — | 12% |
Monmouth University | October 1–4, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 39% | 2% | 5% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 497 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 38% | — | 7% |
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 800 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 39% | 5% | 5% |
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | September 22–23, 2016 | 850 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
TargetSmart/William & Mary | September 15–22, 2016 | 652 LV | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 32% | 4% | 17% |
821 RV | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 34% | 4% | 18% | |||
FOX News | September 18–20, 2016 | 737 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
806 RV | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 37% | 1% | 10% | |||
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Шаблон:Webarchive | September 10–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 34% | 4% | 11% |
Suffolk University | September 12–14, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 31% | 5% | 23% |
CNN/ORC | September 7–12, 2016 | 769 LV | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 37% | — | 5% |
895 RV | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 38% | — | 5% | |||
Bloomberg/Selzer | September 9–12, 2016 | 802 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 36% | 3% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016 | 775 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,134 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
Emerson College | August 25–27, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | 25% | 10% | 25% |
Monmouth University | August 18–21, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
CBS News/YouGov | August 17–19, 2016 | 997 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 39% | 4% | 11% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 812 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 40% | 1% | 10% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 3–7, 2016 | 889 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | July 22–24, 2016 | 1,334 | ± 2.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | July 18–20, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37% | 33% | 6% | 23% |
CBS News/YouGov | July 13–15, 2016 | 1,104 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% | 40% | 4% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 955 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–10, 2016 | 848 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 2% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Webarchive | June 22–23, 2016 | 708 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | 39% | — | 21% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | — | 17% |
Quinnipiac UniversityШаблон:Dead link | June 8–19, 2016 | 971 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 1% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 781 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,042 | ± 3.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 1% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | April 26–27, 2016 | 799 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 1% | 23% |
Hart Research Associates | April 5–7, 2016 | 500 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 1,248 | ± 2.8% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | — | 19% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | February 16–20, 2016 | 1,539 | ± 2.5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | — | 14% |
Baldwin Wallace University | February 11–20, 2016 | 825 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
Democracy Corps Шаблон:Webarchive | October 24–28, 2015 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | Sept 25–Oct 5, 2015 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 1% | 8% |
Harstad Strategic Research Шаблон:Webarchive | September 10–16, 2015 | 813 | ± 3.4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 11% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,096 | ± 3.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 1% | 10% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,191 | ± 2.8% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 1% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 41% | — | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | March 2–3, 2015 | 946 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rob Portman (R) |
P.G. Sittenfeld (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 1,248 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 30% | — | 27% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | February 16–20, 2016 | 1,539 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 29% | 1% | 22% |
Baldwin Wallace University | February 11–20, 2016 | 825 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 26% | — | 23% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | September 25 – October 5, 2015 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 27% | 1% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,096 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 25% | 1% | 22% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,191 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 24% | 1% | 25% |
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 28% | — | 26% |
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 24% | 1% | 28% |
Public Policy Polling↑ | March 2–3, 2015 | 946 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 31% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ken Blackwell (R) |
Ted Strickland (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | — | 18% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Mahoning (Largest city: Youngstown)
- Trumbull (Largest city: Warren)
- Monroe (Largest city: Woodsfield)
By congressional district
Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including the 13th, held by Democrat Tim Ryan and which Hillary Clinton also won in the presidential race.[36]
Analysis
Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run. Шаблон:Cn Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Rob Portman (R) for Senate
- Ted Strickland (D) for Senate
- Joe DeMare (G) for Senate
- Scott Rupert (I) for Senate
- Tom Connors (I) for Senate
Шаблон:2016 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Bernstein, Jonathan (August 26, 2014) "Everybody's Running (Rob Portman Edition)", Bloomberg View. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- ↑ Torry, Jack (August 26, 2014) "2016 preview?: Ohio Sen. Portman visits New Hampshire" Шаблон:Webarchive, Dayton Daily News. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- ↑ Conroy, Scott (August 26, 2014) "Portman Won't Run for Two Offices Simultaneously in 2016", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 11,0 11,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 13,0 13,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 14,0 14,1 14,2 14,3 14,4 14,5 14,6 14,7 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 18,0 18,1 18,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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