Английская Википедия:2016 United States Senate election in Ohio

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Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election

Шаблон:ElectionsOH The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.

Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.

Republican primary

Republican Senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3][4][5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3][6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2][7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8][9]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures)[11][12]

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Don Elijah
Eckhart
Rob
Portman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 638 ± 3.9% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 60% 33%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Шаблон:Small Ken
Blackwell
Rob
Portman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 411 ± 4.8% 24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 57% 20%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:Ohio Senate Republican primary results map by county, 2016.svg
Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelli
Prather
P.G.
Sittenfeld
Ted
Strickland
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 6% 16% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 28%
Public Policy Polling January 12–14, 2016 1,138 ± ? 10% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 61% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 360 ± 5.2% 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 65% 22%

Results

Файл:Ohio Senate Democratic primary, 2016.svg
Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[29]

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Candidates

  • Rob Portman (R), incumbent senator
  • Ted Strickland (D), former governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative
  • Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
  • Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[30]
  • Tom Connors (I)
  • James Stahl (Write-in)

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Debates

Dates Location Portman Strickland Link
October 14, 2016 Youngstown, Ohio Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 17, 2016 Columbus, Ohio Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 20, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[33] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[34] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[35] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,860 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 2,530 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 39% 4%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 900 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 28% 11% 12%
The Columbus Dispatch Oct 27–Nov 5, 2016 1,151 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% 37% 5%
CBS News/YouGov November 2–4, 2016 1,189 ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 39% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 2,004 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% 39% 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 1,728 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 40% 3%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016 589 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 38% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 1,586 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 40% 5%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 35% 4% 12%
Suffolk University October 17–19, 2016 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 31% 6% 14%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive October 10–16, 2016 624 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 41% 1% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Шаблон:Webarchive October 8–16, 2016 1,307 ± 0.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 39% 5%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 774 LV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 40% 2%
890 RV Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 40% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 724 LV ± 3.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 37% 3% 5%
1,007 RV ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 36% 3% 6%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2016 600 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 30% 6% 16%
Baldwin Wallace University October 9–11, 2016 1,152 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 36% 16%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Шаблон:Webarchive October 7–10, 2016 1,304 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 37% 12%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 38% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling October 5–6, 2016 782 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 36% 12%
Monmouth University October 1–4, 2016 405 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 39% 2% 5%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 497 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% 38% 7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 800 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 39% 5% 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing September 22–23, 2016 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 36% 20%
TargetSmart/William & Mary September 15–22, 2016 652 LV ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 32% 4% 17%
821 RV Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 34% 4% 18%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016 737 LV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 37% 1% 10%
806 RV Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 37% 1% 10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Шаблон:Webarchive September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 34% 4% 11%
Suffolk University September 12–14, 2016 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% 31% 5% 23%
CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016 769 LV ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% 37% 5%
895 RV Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 38% 5%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 9–12, 2016 802 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% 36% 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016 775 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 40% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,134 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 39% 13%
Emerson College August 25–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% 25% 10% 25%
Monmouth University August 18–21, 2016 402 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 40% 4% 8%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 997 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 39% 4% 11%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive July 30–August 7, 2016 812 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 40% 1% 10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 889 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 43% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 22–24, 2016 1,334 ± 2.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 38% 19%
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive July 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37% 33% 6% 23%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 1,104 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% 40% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive June 30–July 11, 2016 955 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 40% 1% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 848 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling Шаблон:Webarchive June 22–23, 2016 708 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% 39% 21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 17%
Quinnipiac UniversityШаблон:Dead link June 8–19, 2016 971 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 781 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 42% 12%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive April 27–May 8, 2016 1,042 ± 3.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–27, 2016 799 ± 3.2% 38% 38% 1% 23%
Hart Research Associates April 5–7, 2016 500 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 19%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 14%
Baldwin Wallace University February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 40% 16%
Democracy Corps Шаблон:Webarchive October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 47% 47% 6%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive Sept 25–Oct 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 1% 8%
Harstad Strategic Research Шаблон:Webarchive September 10–16, 2015 813 ± 3.4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 11%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 41% 15%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
P.G.
Sittenfeld (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 30% 27%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 29% 1% 22%
Baldwin Wallace University February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% 26% 23%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive September 25 – October 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 27% 1% 18%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 25% 1% 22%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 24% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 28% 26%
Quinnipiac University Шаблон:Webarchive March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 24% 1% 28%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 31% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Blackwell (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 18%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including the 13th, held by Democrat Tim Ryan and which Hillary Clinton also won in the presidential race.[36]

District Portman Strickland Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 60% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Steve Chabot
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 65% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Brad Wenstrup
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 36% 59% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Joyce Beatty
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 69% 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jim Jordan
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 66% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bob Latta
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 66% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bill Johnson
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 66% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Bob Gibbs
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 72% 24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Warren Davidson
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 43% 51% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Marcy Kaptur
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 60% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mike Turner
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 22% 73% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Marcia Fudge
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 62% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Pat Tiberi
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 48% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tim Ryan
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 61% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|David Joyce
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 61% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Steve Stivers
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 62% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jim Renacci

Analysis

Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run. Шаблон:Cn Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Шаблон:2016 United States elections