Английская Википедия:2016 Washington gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Washington State The 2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.
Under Washington's top-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent governor Jay Inslee (Democratic)[1] and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won. Шаблон:As of, this was the last gubernatorial election in Washington in which the margin of victory was within single digits.Шаблон:Original research inline
Background
Democratic governor Christine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. Representative Jay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating Republican Rob McKenna, the outgoing Attorney General of Washington, by 51.4% to 48.3%. The last Republican to hold the office of governor was John Spellman in 1985, meaning that Washington has the second longest period (South Dakota has not had a Democratic governor since 1979) of one-party statehouse rule in America.[2]
Primary election
Democratic Party
Declared
- James Robert Deal[3]
- Johnathan Dodds[3]
- Jay Inslee, incumbent governor
- Patrick O'Rourke[3]
Republican Party
Declared
- Bill Bryant, former Seattle Port Commissioner[4]
- Goodspaceguy, perennial candidate[3]
- Bill Hirt[3]
Declined
- Andy Hill, state senator[5]
- Steve Litzow, state senator (running for reelection)[5]
- Rob McKenna, former Attorney General of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[6][7]
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative for Washington's 8th congressional district (running for reelection)[8]
Third Party and independent candidates
Declared
- David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic)[3]
- Christian Joubert (Holistic)[3]
- Mary Martin (Socialist Workers)[3]
- Steve Rubenstein (Independent)
Declined
Polling
- with Inslee, Bryant, and Dorn
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Randy Dorn (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Poll | April 14–17, 2016 | 503 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 26% | 7% | 25% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 19, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[11] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[12] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2016 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Other/Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 6 – November 2, 2016 | November 2, 2016 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50.7% | 42.3% | 7.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Inslee +8.4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Bill Bryant (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,451 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Insights West Шаблон:Webarchive | November 4–6, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 40% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,292 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 42% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 944 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 41% | 3% |
| SurveyUSA | October 31 – November 2, 2016 | 667 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 43% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 807 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 41% | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 698 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 41% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 745 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Elway Poll | October 20–22, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 39% | 10% |
| KCTS 9/YouGov | October 6–13, 2016 | 750 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 45% | 4% |
| Strategies 360/KOMO News | September 29 – October 3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 40% | 8% |
| Elway Poll | August 9–13, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 36% | 18% |
| Elway Poll | April 14–17, 2016 | 503 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Elway Poll | December 28–30, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 34% | 21% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Andy Hill (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 31% | 24% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 38% | 19% |
- Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 34% | 22% |
- Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Poll | December 28–30, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 30% | 25% | 45% |
- Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Inslee (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent align=center| 47% | 15% |
| Moore Information | May 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent align=center| 44% | 18% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information | May 16–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 34% | 5% | 20% |
| Moore Information | May 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | 30% | 16% | 20% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
- Pacific (largest city: Raymond)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Inslee won 6 of 10 congressional districts.[17]
Notes
References
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- David Blomstrom (FR) for Governor
- Patrick O'Rourke (D) for Governor
- Jay Inslee (D) for Governor
- Bill Bryant (R) for Governor
- James Robert Deal (D) for Governor
Шаблон:2016 United States elections Шаблон:Washington elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 5,0 5,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite webШаблон:Dead link
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
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