Английская Википедия:2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Alaska sidebar The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018, and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.Шаблон:Clarify In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.[2]
Governor
Declared
- Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator[3][4]
- William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010[5]
Polling
- with Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich |
Les Gara |
Chris Tuck |
Bill Wielechowski |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 205 | ± 2.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 15% | 3% | 8% | 32% |
| – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 25% | 5% | 19% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 51% | ||||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | – | 5% | 12% | 34% | ||||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 15% | – | 8% | 34% | ||||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 19% | 4% | – | 32% |
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Lieutenant governor
Declared
Withdrawn
- Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), former mayor of Seward[6][7]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Governor
Nominated
- Mike Dunleavy, educator and former state senator[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Dorian Colbry
- Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon[5]
- Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
- Merica Hlatcu
- Michael Sheldon
- Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor[9]
Withdrawn
- Mike Chenault, state representative and former Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives[6]
- Scott Hawkins, businessman[11][12]
Declined
- Bill Walker, incumbent Independent Governor (running for re-election as an Independent)[13][4]
- Robert Gillam, businessman[13][4]
- Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor[14]
- Anna MacKinnon, state senator[13] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
- Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and perennial candidate[13]
- Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska[13] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
- Frank Murkowski, former governor of Alaska and U.S. Senator[15]
- Peter Micciche, state senator (running for re-election to state senate)[16]
- Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014[17][13] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
- Ben Stevens, former president of the Alaska State Senate, son of former president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, Solicitor of the Interior Department & U.S. Attorney Ted Stevens[18]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Dunleavy |
Scott Hawkins |
Mead Treadwell |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) | June 5–7, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 7% | 19% | 3% | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Binkley |
Mike Dunleavy |
Peter Miccici |
Joe Miller |
Bill Walker |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harstad Strategic Research | March 22 – April 2, 2017 | 281 | ± 2.2% | 7% | 6% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | 19% | 3%[19] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 36% |
| 9% | 8% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% | – | 4%[20] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 46% | ||||
| 8% | 10% | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | 4%[20] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 48% | ||||
| – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 21% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 46% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Lieutenant governor
Declared
- Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016[21]
- Edie Grunwald, retired air force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard[22]
- Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer[23]
- Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate[24]
- Gary Stevens, state senator[25][26]
- Stephen Wright, air force veteran[27]
Declined
- David Wilson, state senator[28][29][30]
- Glen Thompson, Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assemblyman[31]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
Governor
Withdrew
- Bill Walker (Independent), incumbent governor[32][33][34][35]
Lieutenant governor
Withdrew
- Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent lieutenant governor until October 16[36][32][37]
- Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent lieutenant governor since October 16[38]
General election
Campaign
Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).[39][40] However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.[41]
Debates
| Dates | Location | Dunleavy | Begich | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25, 2018 | Anchorage, Alaska | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[47] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[48] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[49]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[50] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[51] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements boxШаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Walker (I) |
Mike Dunleavy (R) |
Mark Begich (D) |
Billy Toien (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 26–29, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 42% | 3% | – | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 44% | – | – | 3% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 26% | – | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 11–12, 2018 | 645 | – | 24% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 23% | – | – | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 23% | – | – | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 23% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 29% | – | – | 4% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | 24% | – | 2% | 12% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) | June 22–28, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | 22% | – | – | 15% |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 28% | – | – | 12% |
| Alaska Survey Research | June 15–21, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | 23% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 33% | – | – | 6% |
- with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Mike Dunleavy (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 5% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 3% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 44% | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 25–29, 2018 | 761 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 42% | 5% |
- with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Walker (I) |
Mike Dunleavy (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 2% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 4% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 5% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 13–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 47% | 43% | – |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D) | June 21–26, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 25–29, 2018 | 761 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) | February 26 – March 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 12% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) | February 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 36% | 33% | 31% |
- with Bill Walker and Mark Begich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Walker (I) |
Mark Begich (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | October 12–14, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 1–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent (United States) align=center| 42% | 41% | 18% |
| Alaska Survey Research | September 21–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 15% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total
Шаблон:Election box turnout
Шаблон:Election box registered electors Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican
- Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
- Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
- Petersburg
- Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic
- Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
- Anchorage
- Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
- Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
- Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
- Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
- Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
- Juneau
- Sitka
- Skagway
- Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
- Petersburg
- Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
- Yakutat
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
Notes
References
External links
- Official gubernatorial campaign websites
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
- Alaska Division of Elections
Шаблон:Alaska gubernatorial elections Шаблон:2018 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 4,0 4,1 4,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 5,0 5,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 6,0 6,1 6,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 7,0 7,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 13,0 13,1 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Mike Chennault 3%
- ↑ 20,0 20,1 Mike Chennault 4%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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