Английская Википедия:2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsCO The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]
The major party nominees were U.S. Congressman Jared Polis for the Democratic Party and State Treasurer Walker Stapleton for the Republican Party. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.
Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.
Democratic primary
With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.[4]
Candidates
Nominated
- Jared Polis, U.S. Representative[5][6]
Eliminated in the primary
- Mike Johnston, former state senator[7]
- Cary Kennedy, former Colorado State Treasurer and former CFO and Deputy Mayor of Denver[8][9][10]
- Donna Lynne, Lieutenant Governor of Colorado[11]
Eliminated at the convention
- Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
Withdrawn
- Ed Perlmutter, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[12]
- Noel Ginsburg, businessman[13]
Declined
- Joseph Garcia, former lieutenant governor[4]
- Steve Lebsock, State Representative (was running for State Treasurer before switching to the Republican Party, thus disqualifying him from the Democratic Primary)[14][15][16][17]
- Michael Merrifield, State Senator[18][19][20]
- Joe Neguse, former executive director of the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies and nominee for secretary of state in 2014 (running for CO-02)[21][22]
- Joe Salazar, State Representative (running for Attorney General)[23]
- Ken Salazar, former U.S. Senator and former United States Secretary of the Interior[24]
Caucus results
On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many Delegates each candidate that was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. 96.83% of precincts reported and added up below results.[25]
- Cary Kennedy (11,700; 49.2%)
- Jared Polis (7,784; 32.7%)
- Mike Johnston (2,086; 8.8%)
- Noel Ginsburg (433; 1.8%), dropped out of race
- Erik Underwood (100; 0.4%)
- Uncommitted (1,668; 7%)
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Johnston |
Cary Kennedy |
Donna Lynne |
Jared Polis |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360 | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 387 | ± 5.0% | 12% | 23% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% | – | 29% |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | May 30–31, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 9% | 18% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 31% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 2018 | – | – | – | 18% | – | 18% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 52% |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | March 20–23, 2018 | 410 | ± 4.8% | 8% | 23% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 27% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 36% |
| University of Colorado Boulder | November 9–15, 2017 | 357 | ± 3.5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 24% | 2%[26] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 58% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
Eliminated in the primary
- Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker[28]
- Victor Mitchell, former state representative[29]
- Doug Robinson, businessman[30]
Eliminated at the convention
- Steve Barlock, Trump Co-chair & Coalitions, Colorado Republican National Alternate Delegate and Elector[31]
- Cynthia Coffman, Colorado Attorney General[31]
- Barry Farah, businessman[31]
- Lew Gaiter, Larimer County Commissioner[31]
Withdrawn
- George Brauchler, District Attorney for Colorado's 18th Judicial District (running for Attorney General)[32][33][34]
- JoAnne Silva, retired banker[35]
- Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative, candidate for governor in 2014, Constitution Party nominee for governor in 2010, and candidate for President of the United States in 2008[36][37]
- Jim Rundberg, businessman[38]
Declined
- John Elway, general manager of the Denver Broncos and retired NFL player[39][40]
- Owen Hill, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for CO-05)[41][42]
- Steve House, Chairman of the Colorado Republican Party and candidate for governor in 2014[43][44]
- Kent Thiry, Chairman & CEO of DaVita Inc.[45]
- Brian Watson, businessman and candidate for the State House in 2012 (running for State Treasurer)[46][47]
Caucus results
Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from Key Counties.[48]
- Steve Barlock – 3.14%
- Cynthia Coffman – 7.55%
- Greg Lopez – 16.35%
- Victor Mitchell – 23.90%
- Doug Robinson – 3.15%
- Walker Stapleton – 45.91%
- Steve Barlock – 32.5%
- Cynthia Coffman – 4.6%
- Lew Gaiter III – 2.2%
- Greg Lopez – 18.8%
- Victor Mitchell – 7.7%
- Doug Robinson – 2.2%
- Walker Stapleton – 23.2%
- Tom Tancredo (dropped out of the race) – 1.6%
- Uncommitted – 7.2%
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cynthia Coffman |
Greg Lopez |
Victor Mitchell |
Doug Robinson |
Walker Stapleton |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies (R) | June 6–7, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.0% | – | 10% | 23% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | – | 27% |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 2018 | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 15% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 62% |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | February 26–27, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 13% | – | 5% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George Brauchler |
Cynthia Coffman |
Victor Mitchell |
Doug Robinson |
Walker Stapleton |
Tom Tancredo |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Colorado Boulder | November 9–15, 2017 | 250 | ± 3.5% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 54% |
| Braynard Group (R) | September 26–28, 2017 | 400 | ± 3.2% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 0.3% | 8.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% | Шаблон:Party shading/Nonpartisan align=center| 54% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Third party and independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
- Paul Noel Fiorino (Independent), perennial candidate[49]
- Scott Helker (Libertarian)[50][51]
- Bill Hammons (Unity Party of America), insurance agent, chairman and founder of the Unity Party of America, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016[52]
- Marcus Giavanni (Independent), radio host[53]
General election
Debates
| Dates | Location | Polis | Stapleton | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 6, 2018 | Grand Junction, Colorado | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[54] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[55] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[56] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[57] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[59] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[60] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[61]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[62] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[63] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements boxШаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Walker Stapleton (R) |
Scott Helker (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies | October 29–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 40% | 3% | 1%[64] | 11% |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns | October 25–30, 2018 | 517 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | 4% | 1%[64] | 4% |
| University of Colorado/YouGov | October 12–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 42% | 3% | – | 2% |
| Magellan Strategies | October 8–10, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 40% | 4% | 0%[65] | 9% |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | September 18–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 40% | 1% | 0%[65] | 11% |
| Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS | August 15 – September 19, 2018 | 1,585 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 33% | – | – | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party) | June 27–28, 2018 | 608 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 40% | – | – | 13% |
| Strategies 360 | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 37% | – | 3% | 18% |
- with Cary Kennedy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cary Kennedy (D) |
Walker Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360 | May 23 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 38% | 4% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA)Шаблон:Dead link | May 8–10, 2018 | 883 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 37% | 11% |
- with Tom Tancredo
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
| Braynard Group (R) | September 26–28, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.2% | 25% | 25% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cary Kennedy (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
| Keating Research (D) | November 9–13, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 34% | 3% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Johnston (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Donna Lynne (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 38% | 19% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box majority Шаблон:Election box turnout Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chaffee (largest city: Salida)
- Garfield (largest municipality: Glenwood Springs)
By congressional district
Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.[66]
| District | Stapleton | Polis | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 23.7% | 73.05% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Diana DeGette |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 34.48% | 66.42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Joe Neguse |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 49.96% | 46.26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Scott Tipton |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 57.67% | 38.11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Ken Buck |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 56.64% | 38.97% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Doug Lamborn |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 42.36% | 54.29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jason Crow |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 38.38% | 57.03% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ed Perlmutter |
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Paul Fiorino (U) for Governor
- Marcus Giavanni (I) for Governor
- Bill Hammons (U) for Governor
- Scott Helker (L) for Governor
- Jared Polis (D) for Governor
- Walker Stapleton (R) for Governor
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:Colorado elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Noel Ginsburg* 2%. *Withdrawn.
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- ↑ Bunch, Joey. Republican Victor Mitchell is officially in the race for Colorado governor. ColoradoPolitics.com, February 14, 2017. Retrieved: 2017-02-14.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 31,0 31,1 31,2 31,3 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 64,0 64,1 Bill Hammons (U) with 1%
- ↑ 65,0 65,1 Bill Hammons (U) with 0%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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