Английская Википедия:2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election
Шаблон:For Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsCT The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This race's Democratic margin of victory was the closest to the national average of 3.1 points. (It was 0.1 point more Democratic.)
As Connecticut does not have gubernatorial term limits, incumbent Democratic Governor Dannel Malloy was eligible to run for a third term, but declined to do so.[1][2][3] After the resignation of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback in January 2018, Malloy became the most unpopular governor in the United States.[4][5] The general election was between 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee and businessman Ned Lamont, and Republican businessman Bob Stefanowski. Independent candidate and former Republican Oz Griebel has been called a spoiler candidate for Stefanowski, earning 3.89% of the vote.[6]
Democratic primary
Governor
Democratic nominee
- Ned Lamont, businessman, former Greenwich Selectman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006 and candidate for Governor of Connecticut in 2010[7][8] (endorsed by the state party)
Lost the Democratic primary
- Joe Ganim, mayor of Bridgeport and nominee for lieutenant governor in 1994[9][10]
Withdrew prior to the Democratic primary
- Dan Drew, Mayor of Middletown[11]
- Jonathan Harris, former mayor of West Hartford and former Connecticut State Senator (endorsed Lamont)[12][13][14]
- Susan Bysiewicz, Secretary of the State of Connecticut from 1999 to 2011 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Lieutenant Governor of Connecticut; endorsed Lamont)[15][16]
- Sean Connolly, former state commissioner for Veterans' Affairs (endorsed Lamont)[17]
- Guy L. Smith, businessman[18]
Declined
- Dita Bhargava, former hedge fund manager and former vice chair of the Democratic Party of Connecticut (ran for Treasurer of Connecticut)[19][20]
- Luke Bronin, Mayor of Hartford since 2015[21][22]
- Joe Courtney, U.S. Representative since 2007 (ran for reelection)[23]
- Elizabeth Esty, U.S. Representative since 2013 (retiring)[24]
- Toni Harp, Mayor of New Haven since 2013 (endorsed Lamont)[25][26][27]
- Jim Himes, U.S. Representative since 2009 (ran for reelection)[28]
- George Jepsen, Attorney General of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[29]
- Edward M. Kennedy Jr., state senator and member of the Kennedy family (retired)[30]
- Kevin Lembo, State Comptroller of Connecticut since 2011 (ran for reelection)[31][32][33][34]
- Martin Looney, state senator, president pro tempore of the Connecticut Senate[35]
- Dan Malloy, Governor of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[1][2][3]
- Rudy Marconi, Ridgefield First Selectman[36]
- Chris Mattei, attorney and former federal prosecutor (ran for attorney general)[37]
- Nancy Wyman, Lieutenant Governor of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[38]
- John Larson, U.S. Representative since 1999 (ran for reelection; endorsed Lamont)
Primary endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Lieutenant governor
Democratic nominee
- Susan Bysiewicz, former Secretary of the State of Connecticut and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (endorsed by the state party)
Lost the Democratic primary
- Eva Bermúdez Zimmerman, activist[39]
Withdrew
- Liz Linehan, state representative[40]
- Drew Marzullo, Greenwich Selectman[41]
- Charlie Stallworth, state representative[42]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Governor
Republican nominee
- Bob Stefanowski, businessman[43][44][45]
Endorsed by the state party; lost the Republican primary
- Mark Boughton, Mayor of Danbury, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and candidate for governor in 2014 (endorsed by the state party)[46]
Lost the Republican primary
- Tim Herbst, former First Selectman of Trumbull and nominee for state treasurer in 2014[47]
- Stephen A. Obsitnik, businessman and nominee for CT-04 in 2012[48]
- David Stemerman, businessman[49]
Eliminated at Convention
- Mike Handler, Stamford Director of Administration[50]
- Mark Lauretti, Mayor of Shelton and candidate for governor and lieutenant governor in 2014[51][52][53] (endorsed Stefanowski)
- Peter Lumaj, attorney and nominee for secretary of state in 2014[54][55][52] (endorsed Stefanowski)
- Prasad Srinivasan, state representative[56] (endorsed Herbst)
- David M. Walker, former United States Comptroller General and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[57][58][52] (endorsed Stefanowski)
Withdrew prior to the Convention
- Erin Stewart, Mayor of New Britain (ran for lieutenant governor)[59]
- Joe Visconti, former West Hartford Councilman and independent candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for U.S. Senate)[60]
- Peter Thalheim, attorney and builder[61]
Declined
- Toni Boucher, state senator[62][63]
- Len Fasano, state senator, president pro tempore of the Connecticut Senate[64]
- Rob Kane, Auditor of Public Accounts and former state senator[65][66]
- Themis Klarides, Minority Leader of the Connecticut House of Representatives[67][68]
- Joe Markley, state senator (running for lieutenant governor)[69]
- Tom Foley, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland and nominee for governor in 2010 and 2014[70][71]
- Tony Hwang, state senator[72]
- John P. McKinney, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[73]
Convention
The Republican statewide nominating convention was held May 11–12, 2018 at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut.
Under the rules established by the convention, any candidate not receiving at least eight percent of the vote would be eliminated in the first round of voting. In the second round of voting, candidates not receiving 15 percent of the vote would be eliminated. In all subsequent rounds of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated, regardless of percentage. Voting would continue until one candidate receives 50 percent plus one of all votes cast.[74]
Results at the Convention
Round | Mark Boughton | Tim Herbst | Steve Obsitnik | Peter Lumaj | Mark Lauretti | David M. Walker | Prasad Srinivasan | Mike Handler | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 277 | 24.4% | 213 | 18.8% | 117 | 10.3% | 167 | 14.7% | 119 | 10.5% | 104 | 9.2% | 90 | 7.9% | 46 | 4.1% |
2 | 408 | 36.3% | 319 | 28.4% | 198 | 17.6% | 161 | 14.3% | 26 | 2.3% | 13 | 1.2% | ||||
3 | 557 | 50.1% | 454 | 40.9% | 100 | 9.0% |
Primary endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Boughton |
Tim Herbst |
Steve Obsitnik |
Bob Stefanowski |
David Stemerman |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | August 7–9, 2018 | 1,151 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 17% | 3% |
Tremont Public Advisors | July 18–20, 2018 | 1,006 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 15% | 5% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) Шаблон:Webarchive | July 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 18% | 11% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% | 17% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Boughton |
Mike Handler |
Tim Herbst |
Mark Lauretti |
Peter Lumaj |
Steve Obsitnik |
Prasad Srinivasan |
Bob Stefanowski |
David Stemerman |
Erin Stewart |
Dave Walker |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) | May 4–6, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 30% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Lieutenant governor
Republican nominee
- Joe Markley, state senator[75]
Lost the Republican primary
- Jayme Stevenson, Darien First Selectman[76]
- Erin Stewart, Mayor of New Britain[77]
Withdrew
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- Oz Griebel, businessman and Republican candidate for governor in 2010[80]
- Running mate: Monte Frank, former president of the Connecticut Bar Association.
Declined
- Joe Scarborough, television personality and former Republican U.S. Representative from Florida[81]
Withdrew
Endorsements
General election
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Debates
Dates | Location | Lamont | Stefanowski | Griebel | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 18, 2018 | Hartford, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 30, 2018 | New Haven, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[83] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[84] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[85] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[86] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[87] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[88] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[89] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[90]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[91] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[92] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Bob Шаблон:Nowrap |
Oz Griebel (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 681 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 37% | 9% | – | 8% |
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | 9% | 1% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 39% | 10% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
Quinnipiac University | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,201 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 13–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Change Course CT PAC) | October 8–9, 2018 | 828 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 38% | – | – | 19% |
Quinnipiac University | October 3–8, 2018 | 767 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 39% | 11% | 0% | 3% |
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive | September 12–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 37% | – | 4% | 16% |
Gravis Marketing | August 24–27, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 40% | – | – | 12% |
Quinnipiac University | August 16–21, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 33% | 4% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 37% | – | – | 6% | ||||
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive | August 16–21, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 37% | – | 6% | 17% |
- with Ned Lamont and Mark Boughton
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 40% | 11% |
- with Ned Lamont and Erin Stewart
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Erin Stewart (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 10% |
- with Susan Bysiewicz and Erin Stewart
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Erin Stewart (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 10% |
- with Susan Bysiewicz and Mark Boughton
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 11% |
- with generic Democrat and Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 7% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box winning candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate minor party Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate minor party Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Results by congressional district
Lamont won 3 of the 5 congressional districts, while Stefanowski won the other 2, which both elected Democrats.[93]
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Middlesex (largest town: Middletown)
See also
Notes
References
External links
- Debates
- GOP Primary Debate, December 6, 2017
- GOP Primary Debate, January 10, 2018
- GOP Primary Debate, February 21, 2018
- Official gubernatorial campaign websites
- Oz Griebel (I) for Governor
- Rod Hanscomb (L) for Governor
- Ned Lamont (D) for Governor
- Bob Stefanowski (R) for Governor
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
Шаблон:Connecticut elections Шаблон:2018 United States elections
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- Английская Википедия
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