Английская Википедия:2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election

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Шаблон:For Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsCT The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This race's Democratic margin of victory was the closest to the national average of 3.1 points. (It was 0.1 point more Democratic.)

As Connecticut does not have gubernatorial term limits, incumbent Democratic Governor Dannel Malloy was eligible to run for a third term, but declined to do so.[1][2][3] After the resignation of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback in January 2018, Malloy became the most unpopular governor in the United States.[4][5] The general election was between 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee and businessman Ned Lamont, and Republican businessman Bob Stefanowski. Independent candidate and former Republican Oz Griebel has been called a spoiler candidate for Stefanowski, earning 3.89% of the vote.[6]

Democratic primary

Governor

Democratic nominee

Lost the Democratic primary

Withdrew prior to the Democratic primary

Declined

Primary endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Шаблон:Multiple image

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Lieutenant governor

Democratic nominee

Lost the Democratic primary

  • Eva Bermúdez Zimmerman, activist[39]

Withdrew

Results

Шаблон:Multiple image

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Governor

Republican nominee

Endorsed by the state party; lost the Republican primary

Lost the Republican primary

  • Tim Herbst, former First Selectman of Trumbull and nominee for state treasurer in 2014[47]
  • Stephen A. Obsitnik, businessman and nominee for CT-04 in 2012[48]
  • David Stemerman, businessman[49]

Eliminated at Convention

Withdrew prior to the Convention

Declined

Convention

The Republican statewide nominating convention was held May 11–12, 2018 at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut.

Under the rules established by the convention, any candidate not receiving at least eight percent of the vote would be eliminated in the first round of voting. In the second round of voting, candidates not receiving 15 percent of the vote would be eliminated. In all subsequent rounds of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated, regardless of percentage. Voting would continue until one candidate receives 50 percent plus one of all votes cast.[74]

Results at the Convention

Round Mark Boughton Tim Herbst Steve Obsitnik Peter Lumaj Mark Lauretti David M. Walker Prasad Srinivasan Mike Handler
1 277 24.4% 213 18.8% 117 10.3% 167 14.7% 119 10.5% 104 9.2% 90 7.9% 46 4.1%
2 408 36.3% 319 28.4% 198 17.6% 161 14.3% 26 2.3% 13 1.2%
3 557 50.1% 454 40.9% 100 9.0%

Primary endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

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Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Boughton
Tim
Herbst
Steve
Obsitnik
Bob
Stefanowski
David
Stemerman
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors August 7–9, 2018 1,151 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 16% 11% 22% 17% 3%
Tremont Public Advisors July 18–20, 2018 1,006 ± 3.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% 15% 12% 20% 15% 5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) Шаблон:Webarchive July 21–23, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 18% 11% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% 17% 21%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Boughton
Mike
Handler
Tim
Herbst
Mark
Lauretti
Peter
Lumaj
Steve
Obsitnik
Prasad
Srinivasan
Bob
Stefanowski
David
Stemerman
Erin
Stewart
Dave
Walker
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) May 4–6, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 7% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% 2% 11% 3% 30%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Multiple image

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Lieutenant governor

Republican nominee

Lost the Republican primary

Withdrew

  • Ann Brookes, attorney[78]
  • Peter Tesei, Greenwich First Selectman[79]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Independent

Candidates

Declared

Declined

  • Joe Scarborough, television personality and former Republican U.S. Representative from Florida[81]

Withdrew

  • Micah Welintukonis, former Coventry town councilman and army veteran[82]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

General election

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Debates

Dates Location Lamont Stefanowski Griebel Link
October 18, 2018 Hartford, Connecticut Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 30, 2018 New Haven, Connecticut Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[83] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[84] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[85] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[86] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[87] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[88] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[89] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Fox News[90]Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Politico[91] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Governing[92] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018

Шаблон:Smalldiv

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ned
Lamont (D)
Bob
Шаблон:Nowrap
Oz
Griebel (I)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing October 30 – November 1, 2018 681 ± 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 37% 9% 8%
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive October 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.3% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% 9% 1% 12%
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 39% 10% 0%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Quinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,201 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 43% 7% 0% 4%
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive October 13–17, 2018 501 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% 36% 8% 1% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Change Course CT PAC) October 8–9, 2018 828 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 38% 19%
Quinnipiac University October 3–8, 2018 767 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 39% 11% 0% 3%
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive September 12–17, 2018 501 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 37% 4% 16%
Gravis Marketing August 24–27, 2018 606 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 40% 12%
Quinnipiac University August 16–21, 2018 1,029 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 33% 4% 2%Шаблон:Efn 14%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% 37% 6%
Sacred Heart University Шаблон:Webarchive August 16–21, 2018 502 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 37% 6% 17%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Ned Lamont and Mark Boughton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ned
Lamont (D)
Mark
Boughton (R)
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors May 3–5, 2018 550 ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 40% 11%
with Ned Lamont and Erin Stewart
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ned
Lamont (D)
Erin
Stewart (R)
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors May 3–5, 2018 550 ± 4.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 10%
with Susan Bysiewicz and Erin Stewart
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Erin
Stewart (R)
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors May 3–5, 2018 550 ± 4.5% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 10%
with Susan Bysiewicz and Mark Boughton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Mark
Boughton (R)
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors May 3–5, 2018 550 ± 4.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 11%
with generic Democrat and Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Tremont Public Advisors May 3–5, 2018 550 ± 4.5% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 7%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box winning candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate minor party Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate minor party Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Results by congressional district

Lamont won 3 of the 5 congressional districts, while Stefanowski won the other 2, which both elected Democrats.[93]

District Lamont Stefanowski Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 52% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|John B. Larson
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 45% 49% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Joe Courtney
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 52% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Rosa DeLauro
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 54% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jim Himes
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 45% 51% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Elizabeth Esty (115th Congress)
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jahana Hayes (116th Congress)

Шаблон:Collapse top

County Ned Lamont

Democratic

Bob Stefanowski

Republican

Various candidates

Other parties

Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % #
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Fairfield Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |188,334 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |53.01% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |160,641 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45.22% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6,283 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |1.77% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |27,693 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7.80% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |355,258
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Hartford Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |179,182 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |51.74% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |144,218 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41.64% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |22,930 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.62% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |34,964 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |10.10% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |346,330
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Litchfield Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |32,125 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |37.61% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49,280 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57.69% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4,015 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4.70% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -17,155 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -20.08% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |85,420
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Middlesex Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |36,483 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.78% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |38,678 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48.54% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4,524 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |5.68% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -2,195 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -2.75% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |79,685
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |New Haven Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |160,406 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |49.39% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |153,865 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47.38% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |10,485 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |3.23% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |6,541 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |2.01% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |324,756
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |New London Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |50,417 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49,364 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46.39% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6,625 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.23% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,053 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |0.99% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |106,406
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Tolland Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |29,992 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |31,882 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47.98% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |4,576 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -1,890 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -2.84% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |66,450
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Windham Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,571 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |41.42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |22,210 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52.35% Шаблон:Party shading/Others |2,643 Шаблон:Party shading/Others |6.23% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -4,639 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | -10.93% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |42,424
Total 694,510 49.37% 650,138 46.22% 62,081 4.41% 44,372 3.15% 1,406,729

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Шаблон:Collapse bottom

See also

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Debates
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

Шаблон:Connecticut elections Шаблон:2018 United States elections

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