Английская Википедия:2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

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The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

On Election Day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa Governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became Governor of Iowa.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Kim Reynolds, incumbent Governor of Iowa.

Withdrew

• Ron Corbett, Mayor of Cedar Rapids
• Steven Ray, Mayor pro tempore of Boone

Declined

• Terry Branstad, United States Ambassador to China and former Governor
• Steve King, U.S. Representative
• Bill Northey, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services and former Secretary of Agriculture of Iowa
• Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2006

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Fred Hubbell, businessman

Eliminated in primary

• Cathy Glasson, president of SEIU Local 199
• Andy McGuire, former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2006
• John Norris, former chief of staff to Governor Tom Vilsack, former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member and nominee for IA-04 in 2002
• Ross Wilburn, former mayor of Iowa City

Withdrew

• Nate Boulton, state senator
• Rich Leopold, director of the Polk County Conservation Board and former Director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources
• Mike Matson, Davenport alderman
• Jon Neiderbach, attorney, former member of the Des Moines School Board and nominee for State Auditor in 2014
• Todd Prichard, state representative

Declined

• Chaz Allen, state senator
• Joe Bolkcom, state senator
• Bill Brauch, former director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General's Office
• Mike Carberry, Johnson County Supervisor
• Jeff Danielson, state senator
• Michael Gronstal, former Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate
• Chris Hall, state representative
• Rita Hart, state senator (nominee for Lieutenant Governor)
• Jack Hatch, former state senator and nominee for Governor of Iowa in 2014
• Rob Hogg, Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
• Pam Jochum, state senator
• Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative
• Liz Mathis, state senator
• Jim Mowrer, nominee for IA-04 in 2014 and IA-03 in 2016 (ran for the nomination for Secretary of State)
• Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2014
• Janet Petersen, state senator
• Steve Sodders, former state senator
• Tom Vilsack, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of Iowa

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nate Boulton	Cathy Glasson	Fred Hubbell	Andrea McGuire	Jon Neiderbach	John Norris	Ross Wilburn	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	May 13–15, 2018	501	± 4.4%	20%	13%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 31%	5%	–	5%	3%	10%	14%
Remington	May 5–6, 2018	2,315	± 2.0%	20%	7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46%	3%	–	5%	1%	–	18%
20-20 Insight Шаблон:Webarchive	November 8–10, 2017	762	± 3.6%	13%	6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 22%	3%	2%	5%	1%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47%

Results

Файл:Iowa gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Libertarian primary

Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status. As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.

Candidates

Nominated

• Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared

• Marco Battaglia, musician
• Jake Porter, nominee for Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014

Independents

Candidates

• Gary Siegwarth, Fisheries Biologist

Withdrew

• Brent Roske, director and candidate for CA-33 in 2014

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Reynolds	Hubbell	Link
October 17, 2018	Sioux City, Iowa	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN
October 21, 2018	Davenport, Iowa	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
Fox NewsШаблон:Efn	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018
Governing	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Fred Hubbell (D)	Jake Porter (L)	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 2–4, 2018	961	–	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49%	3%	1%	–
Selzer & Company	October 30 – November 2, 2018	801	± 3.5%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46%	2%	1%	7%
Emerson College	October 29 – November 1, 2018	1,462	± 2.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49%	45%	–	2%	5%
University of Iowa	October 8–22, 2018	452	–	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48%	–	5%	6%
Selzer & Company	September 17–20, 2018	555	± 4.2%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43%	7%	0%	9%
Emerson College	September 6–8, 2018	1,000	± 3.2%	31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 36%	–	7%	26%
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42%	37%	–	12%	10%

with Nate Boulton

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Nate Boulton (D)	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41%	37%	11%	11%

with Cathy Glasson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Cathy Glasson (D)	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44%	31%	14%	12%

with generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)	June 19–21, 2017	526	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44%	39%	17%

with John Norris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	John Norris (D)	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41%	30%	14%	15%

with Andy McGuire

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Andy McGuire (D)	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42%	30%	15%	13%

Results

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on Election Day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three). Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Black Hawk (largest city: Waterloo)
• Clinton (largest city: Clinton)
• Des Moines (largest city: Burlington)
• Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque)
• Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
• Lee (largest city: Fort Madison)
• Linn (Largest city: Cedar Rapids)
• Polk (Largest city: Des Moines)
• Scott (largest city: Davenport)
• Story (Largest city: Ames)

By congressional district

Despite losing, Hubbell won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

District	Reynolds	Hubbell	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr	48.05%	49.31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Abby Finkenauer
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr	47.29%	50.72%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Dave Loebsack
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr	47.03%	50.94%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cindy Axne
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr	59.33%	38.63%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Steve King

See also

• Iowa elections, 2018

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Gary Siegwarth (I) for Governor
• Fred Hubbell (D) for Governor
• Jake Porter (L) for Governor
• Kim Reynolds (R) for Governor