Английская Википедия:2018 Maine gubernatorial election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsME The 2018 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018 to elect the governor of Maine. It occurred along with elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Paul LePage was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term; he later unsuccessfully sought a third term in 2022.[1]

The primaries for this election were the first in Maine to be conducted with ranked choice voting (RCV), as opposed to a simple plurality, after voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016.[2] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court held that RCV would be unconstitutional for general elections for governor and the state legislature. This led state legislators to vote to delay its implementation pending approval of a state constitutional amendment.[3][4] Backers of a "people's veto" turned in enough signatures to suspend this law until a June referendum vote, which restored RCV for future primary and congressional elections.[5]

Governor Paul LePage threatened not to certify the results of the primary elections, saying he would "leave it up to the courts to decide."[6] He also called the use of ranked-choice voting the "most horrific thing in the world."[7] Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the results would be binding regardless of whether LePage certified them.[8]

The Republican nominee was businessman and 2010 independent candidate for governor Shawn Moody. The Democratic candidate was Attorney General Janet Mills. State Treasurer Terry Hayes and businessman Alan Caron had qualified for the ballot as independents, though Caron dropped out on October 29 and endorsed Mills. Former state senator and former mayor of Lewiston and Auburn John Jenkins and perennial candidate Kenneth Capron ran write-in campaigns.

Mills defeated Moody and Hayes with a majority to become the first female governor of Maine. This was the first election since 2006 that Maine elected a Democratic governor. Mills was also the first gubernatorial candidate to win at least 50% of the vote since Angus King in 1998, and the first non-incumbent to do so since Kenneth M. Curtis in 1966. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to earn 300,000 votes and received more votes for governor than any other candidate in state history. This also marks the first gubernatorial election since 1982 that a Democrat would win a majority of the popular vote.[9]

Background

Incumbent Republican Paul LePage was term-limited, having been elected twice consecutively in 2010 and 2014. LePage did not win a majority of the vote either time (receiving 37.6% in a crowded four-way race in 2010 and 48.2% in a three-way race in 2014), with Democrats accusing independent candidate Eliot Cutler of splitting the anti-LePage vote in both instances, though Cutler finished closer to LePage than Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell in the 2010 election.[10]

Maine's history of governors elected without majorities, including LePage, was one impetus for the citizen's referendum to implement ranked choice voting.[11][12] Indeed, the last time a gubernatorial candidate received a majority of the vote was in 1998, when incumbent governor (and current United States Senator) Angus King, an independent, won reelection with 58.6% of the vote. The last time a non-incumbent candidate received more than 50% of the vote was the 1966 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Kenneth M. Curtis won over incumbent Republican John H. Reed with 53.1% of the vote.

Though ranked-choice voting was approved by voters in a 2016 referendum, the Maine Legislature voted to delay and potentially repeal RCV for all elections after an advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled it unconstitutional for general elections for state offices. RCV supporters succeeded in a people's veto effort to prevent the delay, which suspends it until a June 2018 referendum vote.[13] RCV supporters were victorious in the June referendum, and ranked-choice voting will remain in place for state and federal primaries and federal general elections.[14]

Republican primary

Speculation that U.S. Senator Susan Collins was considering running for governor arose during the 2015 Maine Legislative session when Representative Matt Moonen (D-Portland) introduced a bill to strip the governor (LePage at the time) of the power to appoint replacement U.S. Senators in the event of a vacancy and to instead have a special primary and general election. Moonen denied that he was motivated by Collins's possible candidacy, saying he was interested only in counterbalancing Republican-sponsored bills to change how the Maine Attorney General and Maine Secretary of State are chosen. Moonen said Collins had told him speculation about her running for governor was "silly."[15] Collins, who was the 1994 Republican nominee for Governor, told MPBN News on January 4, 2016, that though she was "baffled" by the rumors about her being interested in running for governor, many had encouraged her to run, and she would not rule it out.[16] In October 2017, Collins said she would not run for governor in 2018.[17]

No Republican candidate ruled out challenging the results of a ranked-choice primary in court. Mary Mayhew called for the immediate repeal of RCV, calling it a "scam" and "probably illegal".[18]

The Maine Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Bangor on May 4, 2018, seeking to bar the use of RCV for its own primary on the grounds that requiring the party to use it violates its First Amendment rights to choose its nominee as it sees fit.[19] U.S. District Court Judge Jon Levy rejected the suit on May 29.[20]

Candidates

Nominated

  • Shawn Moody, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010[21]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		RCV
round 		Ken
Fredette 		Garrett
Mason 		Mary
Mayhew 		Shawn
Moody 		Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018 546 ± 4.8% Round 1 10% 15% 19% 34% 22%
Round 2 – 25% 26% 49% –
Round 3 – – 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 65%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Susan
Collins 		Mary
Mayhew 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 1–2, 2017 672 – 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% – 23%
28% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 62% 10%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2018MEgovGOP.svg
Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic primary

Файл:Maine Democratic Signs.jpg
Campaign signs for Democratic candidates for Governor Betsy Sweet, Mark Eves and Adam Cote at the 2018 Maine Democratic convention at the Androscoggin Bank Colisée in Lewiston.

Almost all Democratic candidates said that they would abide by the results of the ranked-choice primary, with only Janet Mills refusing to comment on the issue because it was being heard by the courts.[18]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Failed to make ballot

  • Dominic A. Crocitto[40]
  • Steve DeAngelis, schoolteacher[41]
  • J. Martin Vachon[42]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

All endorsers are Democrats unless otherwise specified Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		RCV
round 		Adam
Cote 		Donna
Dion 		Mark
Dion 		Mark
Eves 		Janet
Mills 		Diane
Russell 		Betsy
Sweet 		Undecided
SurveyUSA April 26 – May 1, 2018 649 ± 4.2% Round 1 9% 2% 10% 16% 32% 4% 5% 24%
Round 2 13% – 13% 20% 42% 5% 6%
Round 3 13% – 13% 22% 43% – 8%
Round 4 14% – 15% 24% 48% – –
Round 5 – – 19% 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% – –

Results

Файл:Maine Governor Democratic Primary Election Results by County, 2018.svg
Results by county Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list
Democratic primary results[53]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Janet Mills 41,735 33.1% + 2,307 44,042 35.5% + 5,903 49,945 40.8% + 13,439 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|63,384 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54.1%
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Adam Cote 35,478 28.1% + 2,065 37,543 30.2% + 5,080 42,623 34.8% + 11,243 53,866 45.9%
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Betsy Sweet 20,767 16.5% + 2,220 22,987 18.5% + 6,957 29,944 24.4% - 29,944 Eliminated
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Mark Eves 17,887 14.2% + 1,634 19,521 15.7% - 19,521 Eliminated
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Mark Dion 5,200 4.1% - 5,200 Eliminated
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Diane Russell 2,728 2.2% - 2,728 Eliminated
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Donna Dion 1,596 1.3% - 1,596 Eliminated
style="background-color:Шаблон:Party color" | Democratic Write-ins 748 0.6% - 748 Eliminated
Total votes 132,250 100.0%

Green Independent primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Шаблон:Note labelCapron and Jenkins failed to qualify for the ballot, but continued their campaigns as write-in candidates

Withdrawn

  • Ethan Alcorn, businessman (did not qualify)[62]
  • Alan Caron, president and CEO of Envision Maine (endorsed Mills)[63]
  • Aaron D. Chadbourne, writer and activist[64] (write-in candidate, endorsed Moody)[65]

Failed to make ballot

  • Karmo Sanders, actress[66]

Declined

General election

After the primaries, most prediction models had the race as a tossup, noting Paul LePage's two victories and Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Others considered it to be a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.[70] Both Moody and Mills received the backing of outside money, with one PAC spending in excess of $1 million on television advertising in the state to support Mills's candidacy.[71]

On October 12, Jonathan Martin of The New York Times published an article detailing a sex discrimination complaint filed against Moody and his business in 2006, which Moody settled for $20,000, resulting in the complaint being withdrawn. The complaint alleged that Moody went to the residence of a female employee and fired her for having a child just days after delivering the child via an emergency caesarean section.[72] Moody denied the allegation through a spokesperson and later on Twitter.[73]

Though the first poll of the race saw Mills and Moody tied for first place with Hayes and Caron lagging behind, by the end of October, four different polls were released, each showing Mills with an eight-point lead over Moody. FiveThirtyEight declared the race "Likely D" when its gubernatorial projections were released in October, though other prediction models maintained the race as a tossup.

On October 29, in a press conference at the main branch of the Portland Public Library, Caron dropped out of the race and endorsed Mills. His name remained on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were regarded as blank.[74]

Shortly before 10 pm on election night, Hayes conceded the race.[75] At 12:15 am on November 7, Moody conceded the race to Mills, and shortly thereafter Mills declared victory at Democratic headquarters in Portland.[75] Mills became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to receive more than 300,000 votes in a single election. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to win a majority of the vote since Angus King won nearly 59% of the vote in his re-election bid in 1998, and became the first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote for a first term since Kenneth M. Curtis defeated incumbent governor John H. Reed in 1966, though Curtis and Reed were the only candidates in that race.

The general election used plurality voting, not ranked-choice voting.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[77] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[78] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[79] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[81] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[82] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Fox News[83]Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Politico[84] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
Governing[85] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018

Шаблон:Smalldiv

Endorsements

  • Endorsements in bold were made after the primaries on June 12, 2018

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Debates

Dates Location Mills Moody Hayes Caron Link
October 10, 2018 Portland, Maine Participant Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 25, 2018 Augusta, Maine Participant Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Shawn
Moody (R) 		Janet
Mills (D) 		Terry
Hayes (I) 		Alan
Caron (I) 		Other Undecided
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) November 1, 2018 518 – 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% 7% – – –
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 ± 3.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% – – 5% 4%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 8% 2% – 10%
Change Research September 30 – October 1, 2018 801 – 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% – – – –
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) September 26–30, 2018 600 – 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 10% 2% 0% 13%
Suffolk University August 2–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 39% 39% 4% 3% – 16%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

if ranked-choice voting were used
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Shawn
Moody (R) 		Janet
Mills (D) 		Terry
Hayes (I) 		Alan
Caron (I) 		Undecided
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) November 1, 2018 518 – 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 11% – 3%
Slingshot Strategies (I-Hayes) Шаблон:Webarchive September 26–30, 2018 600 – 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 9% 4% –

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Results by county

Janet Mills
Шаблон:Small 		Shawn Moody
Шаблон:Small 		Terry Hayes
Шаблон:Small 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Androscoggin 19,801 43.96% 21,903 48.63% 3,337 7.41% -2,102 -4.67% 45,041
Aroostook 10,360 38.23% 14,498 53.51% 2,238 8.26% -4,138 -15.28% 27,096
Cumberland 95,346 61.19% 53,088 34.07% 7,373 4.73% 42,258 27.12% 155,807
Franklin 7,083 50.32% 6,254 44.43% 738 5.24% 829 5.89% 14,075
Hancock 15,228 54.13% 11,356 40.37% 1,549 5.51% 3,872 13.76% 28,133
Kennebec 26,777 47.86% 25,752 46.03% 3,422 6.12% 1,025 1.83% 55,951
Knox 11,691 57.39% 7,694 37.77% 985 4.84% 3,997 19.62% 20,370
Lincoln 9,676 50.88% 8,324 43.77% 1,019 5.36% 1,352 7.11% 19,019
Oxford 10,510 41.06% 12,342 48.22% 2,742 10.71% -1,832 -7.16% 25,594
Penobscot 29,004 45.17% 31,572 49.17% 3,640 5.67% -2,568 -4.00% 64,216
Piscataquis 2,887 38.70% 4,109 55.08% 464 6.22% -1,222 -16.38% 7,460
Sagadahoc 10,152 53.22% 7,714 40.44% 1,210 6.34% 2,438 12.78% 19,076
Somerset 8,524 41.03% 11,048 53.18% 1,204 5.80% -2,524 -12.15% 20,776
Waldo 10,109 51.61% 8,397 42.87% 1,083 5.53% 1,712 8.74% 19,589
Washington 5,736 43.99% 6,533 50.10% 770 5.91% -797 -6.11% 13,039
York 48,078 50.45% 41,727 43.79% 5,494 5.77% 6,351 6.66% 95,299

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Mills won 1 of the 2 congressional districts. Moody won the other, which elected a Democrat.[86]

District Mills Moody Hayes Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 55.89% 38.85% 5.26% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chellie Pingree
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 44.99% 48.34% 6.68% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jared Golden

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:US Third Party Election Шаблон:Maine elections

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
Хостинг
Разное

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