Английская Википедия:2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election
Шаблон:ForШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use American EnglishШаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsTN The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee. Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.
The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[1]
After the general election, the results marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.
As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
Eliminated in primary
- Diane Black, U.S. Representative[4]
- Randy Boyd, former Tennessee cabinet official[5]
- Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives[6]
- Basil Marceaux, perennial candidate[7]
- Kay White, realtor and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 1st congressional district in 1996 and 1998[8]
Withdrawn
- Mae Beavers, former state senator[9][10] (unsuccessfully ran for Wilson County Mayor)[11]
- Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran in Tennessee's 7th congressional district)[12]
Declined
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for the U.S. Senate)[13][14]
- Tim Burchett, Mayor of Knox County (successfully ran in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district)[15][16][17]
- Joe Carr, former state representative, perennial candidate[18][19]
- Bob Corker, U.S. Senator[20][21][22]
- Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative[20][23]
- Alberto Gonzales, dean of the Belmont University School of Law and former U.S. Attorney General
- Bill Hagerty, United States Ambassador to Japan and former Tennessee cabinet official[19]
- Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State[24]
- Rob Mitchell, Rutherford County, Rutherford County Property Assessor[25][26]
- Mark Norris, Majority Leader of the Tennessee Senate, appointed as judge to the United States District Court for the Western District of Tennessee[27][19][28]
- Andy Ogles, director of Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity[19] (successfully ran for Mayor of Maury County)[29]
- Ron Ramsey, former Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee and candidate for Governor of Tennessee in 2010[20][30]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black |
Randy Boyd |
Beth Harwell |
Bill Lee |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | July 18–21, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 19% | 20% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% | 1%[31] | 17% |
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 11–14, 2018 | 266 | ± 6.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 27% | 22% | 14% | 19% | 3% | 14% |
| Data Orbital | June 27–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 23% | 10% | 19% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 24% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | June 25–28, 2018 | 1,040 | ± 3.1% | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 7% | 20% | – | 13% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | May 14–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% | 28% | 8% | 9% | – | 15% |
| Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) | May 4–6, 2018 | 800 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 41% | 26% | 6% | 11% | – | 15% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | April 2018 | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 30% | 5% | 13% | – | – |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | March 2018 | – | – | 31% | 31% | 10% | 10% | – | – |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 7–14, 2018 | 390 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 2%[32] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 37% |
| North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) | February 5–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 22% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | 4% | 18% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 30% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | December 12–18, 2017 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 22% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 4%[33] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 53% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
Eliminated in primary
- Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives[35]
- Mezianne Vale Payne, retiree[36]
Declined
- Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator[19]
- Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015[37][38]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Karl Dean |
Craig Fitzhugh |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 11–14, 2018 | 206 | ± 7.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 14% | 9% | 33% |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 7–14, 2018 | 288 | ± 5.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 11% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 44% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
Candidates
- Mark CoonRippy Brown (Independent)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Sherry L. Clark (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Justin Cornett (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Gabriel Fancher (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Sean Bruce Fleming (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- William Andrew Helmstetter (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Cory King (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Matthew Koch (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Yvonne Neubert (Green)Шаблон:Efn
- Alfred Shawn Rapoza (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Chad Riden, comedian (Independent)[39]
- Heather Scott (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- George Blackwell Smith IV (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Mike Toews (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Rick Tyler, candidate for TN-03 in 2016[7]
- Vinnie Vineyard (Funkmaster V from Wrestling With Ghosts) [39] (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn
- Jaron D. Weidner (Libertarian)Шаблон:Efn[39]
- Joe B. Wilmoth (Independent)[39]
- Patrick Whitlock (Independent)
Notes
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[46] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[47]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[48] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[49] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Lee (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | October 28–31, 2018 | 480 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 44% | – | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 621 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 41% | 2% | 3% |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 718 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 37% | 2% | 7% |
| 850 RV | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 36% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 44% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 764 LV | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 42% | 0% | 4% |
| 871 RV | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 41% | 0% | 5% | ||
| East Tennessee State University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 22–29, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 36% | 5% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 497 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 59% | 36% | 3% | 2% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 471 LV | ± 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 40% | 1% | 3% |
| 764 RV | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Vanderbilt University/SSRS | October 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 37% | 0% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 9–12, 2018 | 558 LV | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 44% | – | – |
| 801 RV | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 59% | 33% | – | 8% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 666 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 36% | 1% | 10% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 35% | 1% | 10% | ||
| SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 1,609 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 35% | – | 19% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 567 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 45% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 723 LV | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 43% | 0% | 3% |
| 852 RV | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 43% | 0% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | September 10–12, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 37% | – | 9% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 686 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 35% | 1% | 10% |
| 809 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 34% | 2% | 12% | ||
| Marist College | August 25–28, 2018 | 538 LV | ± 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 40% | 1% | 7% |
| 730 RV | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | August 9–11, 2018 | 620 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 40% | – | 9% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
- with Karl Dean
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% | 27% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 35% | 19% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | 31% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Boyd (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 36% | 30% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 35% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Beth Harwell (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 33% | 25% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 33% | 29% |
- with Craig Fitzhugh
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Boyd (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Beth Harwell (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mae Beavers (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 36% | 28% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 37% | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mae Beavers (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | 29% | 34% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Шаблон:Hidden begin Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no change |} Шаблон:Hidden end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Davidson (largest city: Nashville)
- Haywood (largest city: Brownsville)
- Shelby (largest city: Memphis)
See also
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Karl Dean (D) for Governor
- Bill Lee (R) for Governor
- Chad Riden (I) for Governor
- Vinnie Vineyard (L) for Governor
Шаблон:2018 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 7,0 7,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 19,0 19,1 19,2 19,3 19,4 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 20,0 20,1 20,2 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1%
- ↑ Kay White 2%
- ↑ Mae Beavers 4%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 39,00 39,01 39,02 39,03 39,04 39,05 39,06 39,07 39,08 39,09 39,10 39,11 39,12 39,13 39,14 39,15 39,16 39,17 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite webШаблон:Dead link
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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