Английская Википедия:2018 Texas gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Texas sidebar The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term in office[1] defeating Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County, and Libertarian nominee Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.
The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season.[2] Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.[3] Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and faced Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.[4]
Valdez's nomination made her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.[5]
Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13–15, 2018. He defeated three challengers, as well as the None Of The Above option, on the first ballot and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.
Despite considerably closer contests in other Texas state elections, Abbott handily won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994.[6] Tippetts' showing exceeded the previous record for most votes for a Libertarian nominee for Texas governor; that record had been set in 1990.
The election also took place alongside a closer, higher-profile Senate race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, which may have played a factor in making the Democratic gubernatorial candidate considerably more competitive than in 2014. Abbott won a majority among white Americans (72% to 26%), while Valdez won majorities among African Americans (80% to 16%) and Latinos (63% to 35%).[7]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas Attorney General[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Larry Kilgore, secession activist[9][10]
- Barbara Krueger, retired teacher[11]
Declined
- Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas (running for re-election)[12]
- Joe Straus, Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives[13][14]
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Barbara Krueger |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 84% | 2% | 1%[15] | 13% |
University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 612 | ± 5.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 95% | 5% | 0%[16] | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box turnout Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Lupe Valdez, former Dallas County Sheriff[17]
Eliminated in primary
- James Jolly Clark, businessman[18]
- Cedric Davis, former mayor of Balch Springs[19]
- Joe Mumbach, businessman[20]
- Adrian Ocegueda, financial analyst[21][22]
- Jeffrey Payne, businessman and 2009 International Mr. Leather[23][24][25]
- Demetria Smith, mortgage broker[18][26]
- Tom Wakely, hospice chaplain and nominee for TX-21 in 2016[27][22]
- Andrew White, entrepreneur and son of Governor Mark White[28]
- Grady Yarbrough, retired educator[21][22][29]
Withdrew
- Garry Brown, candidate for Travis County Commission in 2014[30][31]
- Lee Weaver[32][33]
Declined
- Rafael Anchia, state representative[34]
- Dwight Boykins, Houston City Councilman[35][36]
- Joaquín Castro, U.S. Representative[37][38]
- Julian Castro, former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and Mayor of San Antonio[39]
- Mike Collier, businessman and nominee for Comptroller in 2014 (running for Lieutenant Governor)[40][41]
- Wendy Davis, former state senator and nominee in 2014[42][43]
- Pete Gallego, former U.S. Representative[44][45]
- Eva Longoria, actress and political activist[46]
- Jack Martin, CEO of Hill+Knowlton Strategies[47]
- Trey Martinez Fischer, former state representative[48][49][47]
- William McRaven, Chancellor of the University of Texas System, retired Navy Admiral and former Commander of the United States Special Operations Command[50][51]
- Michael Sorrell, president of Paul Quinn College[52][46][47][53]
- Allen Vaught, former state representative[48]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
First round
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Adrian Ocegueda |
Jeffrey Payne |
Lupe Valdez |
Tom Wakely |
Andrew White |
Grady Yarbrough |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 5.7% | 6% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 12% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 17% | 1% | 6%[54] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 54% |
University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 453 | ± 7.4% | 5% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 24% | 7% | 8%[55] | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box turnout Шаблон:Election box end
Runoff
Lupe Valdez and Andrew White proceeded to a run-off on May 22 since neither received 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary.[3] Lupe Valdez won the runoff.[56]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box end
Libertarian nomination
Candidates
Nominated
- Mark Tippetts, former Lago Vista City Councilman[57]
Defeated at Convention
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 28, 2018
Endorsements
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[60] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[61] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[62] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[63] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[65] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[66] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[67]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[68] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[69] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Lupe Valdez (D) |
Mark Tippetts (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 781 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 43% | 2% | – | 4% |
Quinnipiac University | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,078 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 40% | – | 1% | 6% |
University of Texas Tyler | October 15–28, 2018 | 1,033 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 32% | – | 5% | 10% |
Dixie Strategies | October 25–26, 2018 | 588 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 59% | 33% | – | – | 7% |
University of Texas/YouGov | October 15–21, 2018 | 927 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 37% | 3% | 4% | – |
Ipsos | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,298 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 38% | – | 3% | 6% |
CNN/SSRS | October 9–13, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 39% | – | 0% | 3% |
862 RV | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 4% | ||
NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 35% | – | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | October 3–9, 2018 | 730 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 38% | – | 0% | 4% |
Emerson College | October 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 33% | – | 3% | 11% |
Epstein Group Шаблон:Webarchive | September 15–24, 2018 | 1,200 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 29% | 3% | – | 10% |
Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 508 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | September 11–17, 2018 | 807 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 39% | – | 0% | 3% |
Ipsos Шаблон:Webarchive | September 6–14, 2018 | 992 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 41% | – | 2% | 6% |
Crosswind Media & Public Relations | September 6–9, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 39% | – | – | – |
Dixie Strategies | September 6–7, 2018 | 519 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 34% | 1% | – | 12% |
Emerson College | August 22–25, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 28% | – | 3% | 20% |
Marist College | August 12–16, 2018 | 759 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | 37% | – | <1% | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | July 26–31, 2018 | 1,118 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 38% | – | 1% | 9% |
Texas Lyceum | July 9–26, 2018 | 441 LV | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 31% | 1% | – | 22% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 25% | 3% | – | 28% | ||
Gravis Marketing | July 3–7, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% |
University of Texas/YouGov | June 8–17, 2018 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 32% | 4% | 4% | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | May 23–29, 2018 | 961 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 34% | – | 1% | 9% |
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) | May 19–21, 2018 | 575 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 36% | – | – | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | April 12–17, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 40% | – | 0% | 9% |
- with Andrew White
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Andrew White (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) | May 19–21, 2018 | 575 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
Quinnipiac University | April 12–17, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 41% | 0% | 9% |
- with Julian Castro
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Julian Castro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 12–14, 2016 | 944 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 28% | – | 15% |
- with Wendy Davis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Wendy Davis (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 12–14, 2016 | 944 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 57% | 32% | – | 11% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Bexar (largest municipality: San Antonio)
- Culberson (largest municipality: Van Horn)
- Harris (largest municipality: Houston)
- Hays (largest municipality: San Marcos)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Frio (largest municipality: Pearsall)
- Jim Wells (largest municipality: Alice)
- Val Verde (largest municipality: Del Rio)
By congressional district
Abbott won 25 of 36 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[70]
References
External links
- Debates
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:Elections in Texas footer
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Svitek, Patrick. "Valdez, White headed to runoff in Democratic gubernatorial primary." Texas Tribune. Mar. 6, 2018.
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- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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- ↑ Larry Kilgore 1%
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