Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

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Шаблон:Short description

Шаблон:Use mdy dates

Шаблон:For

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Arizona

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[1] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[2] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[3] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[4]

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[5] and McSally conceded that day.[6] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[7]Шаблон:Better source

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[8] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[9][10][11]

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Файл:Martha McSally (39626251902).jpg
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018.
Файл:Kelli Ward (30392756898).jpg
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018.

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio 		Martha
McSally 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 27% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 35% 27% – 23%
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% 27% – 14%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 19% 7%[43] 23%
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% 25% – 22%
Remington (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 23% – 10%
Magellan Strategies (R) April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% – 15%
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% 19% – 27%
OH Predictive Insights January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 31% 25% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 36% – 26%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% – 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% – 24%
Revily (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% – 21% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% 15%[44] Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 34%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Jay Heiler
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Heiler 		Martha
McSally 		Matt
Salmon 		David
Schweikert 		John
Shadegg 		Kelli
Ward 		Undecided
Data Orbital October 26–28, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 1% 19% 10% 5% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 28%
with Jeff Flake
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake 		Jeff
DeWit 		Nicholas
Tutora 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 31% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% – 11%
JMC Analytics (R) August 26–27, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 21% – 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% – 29%
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive August 18–19, 2017 273 ± 5.9% 28% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 5% 24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward) February 7, 2017 921 ± 5.0% 23% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% – Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47%
Remington Research Group November 15–16, 2016 1,122 ± 2.9% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% – 15% – 17%
33% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% – – – 25%
35% 35% – – – 30%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2018 AZ US Senate GOP primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Файл:Kyrsten Sinema (30603638257).jpg
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018.
Файл:Deedra Abboud (33963983436).jpg
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017.

Failed to file

Withdrew

  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[52][53]

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Deedra
Abboud 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% 12%[61] 30%

Results

Файл:2018 AZ US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Results

Файл:2018 AZ US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

General election

Debates

Файл:Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally in a debate for Senate's election of 2018.png
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[66] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
CNN[68] Шаблон:Sort October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[69] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[70] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[71] Шаблон:Sort October 26, 2018
Fox News[72] Шаблон:Sort October 30, 2018

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martha
McSally (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Angela
Green (G) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% – 2% 6%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – – –
OH Predictive Insights November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 48% 0% – 1%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 2% – 2%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 46% – – –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% – 1% 10%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 44% – – –
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 46% – – 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 42% – – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% – 2% 1%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 42% – – –
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% – – –
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 43% – – –
FOX News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% – 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% – 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% 4% – 5%
NBC News/Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% – 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% – 2% 6%
CBS News/YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – 3% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 46% – 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 45% 1% – 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 46% 1% – 6%
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D) October 9–10, 2018 783 – 44% 44% – – 11%
CBS News/YouGov October 2–5, 2018 898 – 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 41% 4% – 8%
FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% – 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 49% – – –
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – – 11%
610 RV – 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% – – 17%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% – 4% 13%
NBC News/Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% – 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – 1% 6%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D) Шаблон:Webarchive September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% – 1% 3%
FOX News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% – 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 48% – – 3%
OH Predictive Insights September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 46% – – 6%
Data Orbital Шаблон:Webarchive September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – 2%[74] 9%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – – 8%
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% – – 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – – 7%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 40% – 9% 20%
CBS News/YouGov June 19–22, 2018 869 LV – 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% – 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% – 8% 14%
NBC News/Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% – 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% – – 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – – 13%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – – 9%
Revily (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 33% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 37%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Kelli Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kelli
Ward (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% – 8%
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 37% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – 17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% – 7%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 26% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 8% 23%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 867 LV ± 3.7% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 6% 9%
996 RV 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 7% 14%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 2% 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% – 6%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% – 11%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 34% 33% – 33%
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive October 23–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 34% – Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39%
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 32% – Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38%
with Joe Arpaio
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% – 10%
Gravis Marketing Шаблон:Webarchive June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 34% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% – 9%
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% 8% 9%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 868 LV ± 3.7% 29% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 13% 8%
996 RV 28% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 13% 11%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% 2% 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 61% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 59% – 8%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Morning Consult Шаблон:Webarchive June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 35% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 45% 8%
with Jeff Flake
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 13%
HighGround Public Affairs Шаблон:Webarchive August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 33% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 27%
Public Policy Polling May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% 36% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Шаблон:Webarchive July 31 – August 1, 2017 704 ± 2.0% 31% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 22%
with Matt Salmon
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Salmon (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 30% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 32% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

The race was too close to call on Election Day.[75] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[76] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[77] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[78] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[79] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[80]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[79] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[81]

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Шаблон:Collapse top

County[82] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Angela Green
Green 		Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Apache Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |16,298 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |64.97 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |7,810 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |31.13 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |961 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.83 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |18 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.07 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |8,488 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |33.83 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |25,087
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Cochise Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,383 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |38.16 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |26,929 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59.12 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |1,212 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.66 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |25 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.05 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-9,546 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-20.96 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45,549
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Coconino Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |34,240 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |61.94 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |19,249 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |34.82 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |1,757 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.18 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |34 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.06 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |14,991 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |27.12 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |55,280
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Gila Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7,643 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |37.28 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |12,180 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59.42 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |674 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.29 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |2 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.01 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-4,537 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-22.13 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |20,499
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Graham Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3,368 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |31.76 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |6,870 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |64.77 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |363 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.42 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |5 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.05 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-3,502 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-33.02 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |10,606
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Greenlee Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,042 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.59 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |1,416 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55.16 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |108 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |4.21 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |1 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.04 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-374 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-14.57 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |2,567
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |La Paz Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,609 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |31.72 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |3,265 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |64.36 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |199 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.92 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-1,656 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-32.64 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |5,073
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Maricopa Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |732,761 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |50.96 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |672,505 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46.77 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |32,371 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.25 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |315 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.02 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |60,256 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |4.19 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,437,952
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Mohave Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |19,214 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |26.88 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50,209 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |70.25 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2,027 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.84 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |19 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.03 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-30,995 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-43.37 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |71,469
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Navajo Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |16,624 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.37 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |18,767 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.22 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |1,238 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.38 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |11 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.03 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-2,143 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-5.85 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |36,640
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Pima Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |221,242 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |56.65 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |160,550 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41.11 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |8,710 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.23 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |66 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.02 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |60,692 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |15.54 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |390,568
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Pinal Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |50,395 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |42.93 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |63,782 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54.33 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3,183 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.71 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |35 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.03 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-13,387 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-11.40 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |117,395
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Santa Cruz Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |9,241 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |68.51 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |3,828 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |28.38 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |418 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.10 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |1 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.01 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |5,413 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.13 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |13,488
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Yavapai Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40,160 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |37.06 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |65,308 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60.26 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2,870 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |2.65 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |30 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.03 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-25,148 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-23.21 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |108,368
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Yuma Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |19,880 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.42 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |22,532 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.48 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |1,351 Шаблон:Party shading/Green |3.09 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |4 Шаблон:Party shading/Vacant |0.01 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-2,652 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |-6.06 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |43,767
Totals 1,191,100 49.96 1,135,200 47.61 57,442 2.41 566 0.02 55,900 2.34 2,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Шаблон:Collapse bottom

Results by congressional districts

Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[83]

District Sinema McSally Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 50.64% 46.47% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tom O'Halleran
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 52.63% 45.23% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ann Kirkpatrick
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 63.9% 32.93% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Raúl Grijalva
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 32.85% 64.49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Paul Gosar
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 42.35% 55.54% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Andy Biggs
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 47.4% 50.81% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|David Schweikert
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 75.43% 21.19% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ruben Gallego
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr 42.88% 54.89% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Debbie Lesko
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr 61.37% 36.41% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | Sinema Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | McSally No
Answer 		% of
Voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 47
Women 51 47 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 57 39 4 17
40–49 years old 50 48 2 17
50–64 years old 44 55 1 29
65 and older 51 48 1 29
Race
White 45 53 2 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 68 30 2 18
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race and Gender
White men 42 55 3 34
White women 47 52 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 66 32 2 9
Latina women 70 28 2 9
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 50 46 4 25
Some college education 45 54 1 28
Associate Degree 43 53 4 10
Bachelor's Degree 52 47 3 23
Advanced degree 62 37 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 55 45 N/A 27
White no college degree 39 58 3 48
Non-white college graduates 72 27 1 9
Non-white no college degree 65 33 2 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 56 44 N/A 15
White women without college degrees 42 56 2 26
White men with college degrees 53 47 N/A 12
White men without college degrees 35 61 4 22
Non-whites 68 31 1 25
Military service
Veteran 38 59 3 14
Non-veteran 54 45 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 62 34 4 15
$30,000-$49,999 63 36 1 18
$50,000-$99,999 48 49 3 33
$100,000-$199,999 41 58 1 24
Over $200,000 44 56 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 32
Republicans 12 86 2 38
Independents 50 47 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 6 N/A 14
Democratic women 99 1 N/A 17
Republican men 6 91 3 15
Republican women 16 83 1 23
Independent men 50 47 3 18
Independent women 50 47 3 13
Ideology
Liberals 94 6 N/A 22
Moderates 63 35 2 38
Conservatives 14 84 2 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 44 3 15
No 48 50 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 77 20 3 42
Immigration 16 83 1 31
Economy 39 60 1 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 60 39 1 43
Suburban 44 54 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 6
Source: CNN[84]

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[85] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[86] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties.Шаблон:Cn Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year;Шаблон:Cn the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.[87] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.Шаблон:Cn

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th CongressШаблон:Cn and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[88][89]

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:Arizona elections

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
Хостинг
Разное

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