Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMI The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. Senator[5][6][7]
Declined
- Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit
Withdrew
- Craig Allen Smith
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John James, businessman and Iraq veteran[8][9]
Defeated in primary
Failed to qualify
Declined
- John Engler, former governor[12]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist (endorsed James)[13]
- Robert Ritchie, better known as musician Kid Rock (endorsed James)[14]
- Bill Schuette, Michigan Attorney General, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (ran for Governor)[15]
- Fred Upton, U.S. Representative[16]
Withdrew
- Lena Epstein, businesswoman (running for MI-11)[17]
- Robert P. Young Jr., former chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court (endorsed John James)[18][19]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Debates
A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[20]
Polling
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John James |
Sandy Pensler |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research | July 30, 2018 | 413 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA | July 21–22, 2018 | 1,045 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 19–21, 2018 | 202 | ± 7.3% | 28% | 28% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 44% |
| Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 337 | ± 6.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% | 23% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 46% |
| National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) | July 11–14, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 21% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28% | 10% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 41% |
| Target-Insyght | June 24–26, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
| Strategic National (R) | June 16–21, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 49% |
| Strategic National (R) | June 9–10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 54% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) | May 28–29, 2018 | 627 | ± 3.8% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 36% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38% |
| Strategic National (R) | April 21, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 13% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 61% |
| Strategic National (R) | April 4–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 20% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 68% |
| Denno Research | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 16% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 72% |
| Strategic National (R) | March 19–20, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 17% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 62% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John James |
Sandy Pensler |
Fred Upton |
Robert Young |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National (R) | December 16–17, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 9% | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 75% |
| Target-Insyght | November 1–6, 2017 | 1,000 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | – | 19% | 7% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lena Epstein |
Bob Young |
John James |
Robert Ritchie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | September, 2017 | –Шаблон:Efn | – | 7% | 3% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center|29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center|56% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 9% | 6% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 28% |
| Target-Insyght | July 25–27, 2017 | 344 | ± 5.35 | 8% | 14% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 29% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Green Party Convention
The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.
Declared
Withdrew
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Debbie Stabenow (D) | $17,449,325.17 | $15,720,981.25 | $2,842,613.58 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John James (R) | $9,838,137.84 | $7,953,403.16 | $1,884,735.02 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[24] | |||
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[30]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
John James (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research | November 5, 2018 | 827 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 1,817 | ± 2.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 44% | 1% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research | November 4, 2018 | 701 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 46% | 0% | 1% |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 880 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 47% | 3%[31] | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 36% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 29–30, 2018 | 764 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group | October 25–27, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 36% | 3%[32] | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 43% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research | October 25, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 46% | 0% | 2% |
| Target-Insyght Шаблон:Webarchive | October 22–24, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 43% | 4%[33] | 1% |
| EPIC-MRA | October 18–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | 5% | 4% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 20–22, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| Michigan State University | October 13–22, 2018 | 169 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | – | – |
| Marketing Resource Group Шаблон:Webarchive | October 14–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Mitchell Research | September 30 – October 7, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Glengariff Group | September 30 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 35% | 3% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA Шаблон:Webarchive | September 21–25, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 33% | 5% | 6% |
| Ipsos | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,150 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 35% | 4% | 6% |
| Target-InsyghtШаблон:Dead link | September 10–14, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 40% | – | – |
| Mitchell Research | September 12–13, 2018 | 1,009 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Strategic National (R) | September 8–9, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 35% | – | 11% |
| Glengariff Group | September 5–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 14–16, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Strategic National (R) | August 13–14, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 35% | 2% | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 11–14, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 29% | 8% | 17% |
| Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Glengariff Group | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
- with Sandy Pensler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Sandy Pensler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 32% | 7% | 13% |
| Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Glengariff Group | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
- with generic Democrat and Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 2,012 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 45% | 6% |
- with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Robert Ritchie (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell/Rosetta Stone | October 1, 2017 | 558 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 38% | 16% |
| Zogby Analytics | September 19, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Marketing Resource Group | September 13–18, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Target-Insyght | July 25–27, 2017 | 822 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | July 25–27, 2017 | 1,078 | ± 3.1% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 5% |
Results
Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[34] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Alger (largest city: Munising)
- Alpena (largest city: Alpena)
- Arenac (largest city: Standish)
- Benzie (largest city: Frankfort)
- Clare (largest city: Clare)
- Delta (largest city: Escanaba)
- Gladwin (largest city: Gladwin)
- Gratiot (largest city: Alma)
- Iosco (largest city: East Tawas)
- Iron (largest city: Iron River)
- Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
- Leelanau (largest settlement: Greilickville)
- Lenawee (largest city: Adrian)
- Mason (largest city: Ludington)
- Menominee (largest city: Menominee)
- Ogemaw (largest city: West Branch)
- Ontonagon (largest village: Ontonagon)
- Presque Isle (largest city: Rogers City)
- Roscommon (largest settlement: Houghton Lake)
- Schoolcraft (largest city: Manistique)
- St. Clair (largest city: Port Huron)
- Bay (largest city: Bay City)
- Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
- Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
- Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
- Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
- Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)
- Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
- Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)
- Keweenaw (largest city: Ahmeek)
- Houghton (largest city: Houghton)
- Mackinac (largest city: St. Ignace)
- Dickinson (largest city: Iron Mountain)
- Baraga (largest city: Baraga)
- Luce (largest city: Newberry)
- Chippewa (largest city: Sault Ste. Marie)
- Montmorency (largest city: Lewiston)
- Cheboygan (largest city: Cheboygan)
- Crawford (largest city: Grayling)
- Oscoda (largest city: Mio)
- Alcona (largest city: Harrisville)
- Wexford (largest city: Cadillac)
- Huron (largest city: Bad Axe)
- Sanilac (largest city: Sandusky)
- Tuscola (largest city: Caro)
- Lapeer (largest city: Lapeer)
- Ionia (largest city: Ionia)
- Montcalm (largest city: Greenville)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Kent (largest city: Grand Rapids)
By congressional district
Stabenow won 7 of 14 congressional districts.[35]
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
- John James (R) for Senate
- Debbie Stabenow (D) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Marcia Squier (G) for Senate
Шаблон:2018 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 9,0 9,1 9,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
- ↑ George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
- ↑ Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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