Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates

Шаблон:For

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMO The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election to a third term. McCaskill easily won her party's nomination, defeating several minor candidates in the primary, while Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley comfortably won the Republican primary.[1]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[2] Pollsters predicted a tight race, however Hawley defeated McCaskill on election day by 5.8%, taking 51.4% of the vote to McCaskill's 45.6%, a somewhat larger margin than expected. This resulted in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time and continued to be until the inauguration of Jon Ossoff in 2021.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist[6]
  • David Faust[7]
  • Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate[7]
  • John Hogan, perennial candidate[7]
  • Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[7]
  • Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Файл:2018 MO US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Tony
Monetti
Peter
Pfeifer
Kirsti
Nichols
America First Missouri May 11, 2018 [27] Absent Present Present Present Present Present

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Other Undecided
Emerson CollegeШаблон:Dead link April 26–29, 2018 283 ± 6.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37% 8% 6% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
David
Steelman
Ann
Wagner
David
Wasinger
Undecided
Remington Research Group April 28–29, 2017 915 ± 3.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 30% 7% 14% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47%
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 37% 16% Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 47%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Файл:2018 MO US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[28]

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Файл:2018 MO US Senate Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Green primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary

  • Jerome Bauer

Results

Файл:2018 MO US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list

Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Craig O'Dear, attorney[32]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[33] Шаблон:USRaceRating October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[34] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] Шаблон:USRaceRating November 5, 2018
CNN[36] Шаблон:Sort November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[37] Шаблон:Sort November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[38] Шаблон:Sort November 5, 2018
Fox News[39] Шаблон:Sort November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[40] Шаблон:Sort November 5, 2018

Debates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| Claire McCaskill (D) $35,361,401 $33,594,412 $1,789,381
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| Josh Hawley (R) $10,221,143 $7,376,209 $2,844,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[41]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill
(D)
Josh
Hawley
(R)
Japheth
Campbell
(L)
Craig
O'Dear
(I)
Jo
Crain
(G)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47%
Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 4, 2018 1,791 ± 2.3% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 4% 3%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 732 ± 3.8% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 3% 3%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) November 1–2, 2018 1,424 ± 2.6% 47% 47% 1% 1% 1% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46%
NBC News/Marist October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 LV ± 5.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 44% 3% 2% <1% 4%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 47% <1% 3%
920 RV ± 4.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 43% 3% 2% 1% 6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% 46% 1% 4%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 43%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 44%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 741 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 0% 3% 1% 0% 9%
45% 45% 2% 8%
851 RV ± 3.0% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10%
43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 3% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 1% 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 24–25, 2018 1,376 ± 2.6% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 17–18, 2018 1,215 ± 2.7% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 2% 1% 1% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) October 16–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 4% 5%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 0% 3%
Ipsos September 27 – October 7, 2018 1,111 ± 3.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% 1% 2% 0% 2% 6%
1st Tuesday CampaignsШаблон:Dead link October 5–6, 2018 1,052 ± 3.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% 1% 1% 1% 11%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 683 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 2% 4% 1% 1% 6%
46% 46% 3% 5%
805 RV ± 3.5% 41% 41% 2% 4% 2% 1% 9%
44% 44% 3% 8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) September 29 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 869 ± 3.3% 49% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 756 LV ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 44% 3% 1% 0% 4%
906 RV ± 3.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 42% 4% 2% 0% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) September 26–27, 2018 1,555 ± 2.5% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 6%
YouGov September 10–14, 2018 917 45% 45% 4% 6%
Trafalgar Group (R) September 11–13, 2018 1,724 ± 2.4% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 675 LV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 41% 1% 3% 1% 1% 8%
45% 45% 3% 7%
808 RV ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% 39% 1% 4% 1% 1% 11%
42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 3% 10%
NBC News/Marist August 25–28, 2018 568 LV ± 4.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% 40% 5% 3% <1% 8%
47% 47% 1% 5%
774 RV ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% 39% 6% 3% <1% 8%
46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 1% 5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) August 12–14, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 41% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 3% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 8–9, 2018 1,785 ± 2.3% 47% 47% 6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) July 10–12, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% 4% 11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2018 1,034 ± 3.2% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,038 ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% 47% 4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) June 2018 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 42%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) June 11–13, 2018 804 ± 3.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% 41%
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) May 9–10, 2018 898 ± 3.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 44% 8%
Emerson CollegeШаблон:Dead link April 26–29, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 45% 45% 11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) April 19–20, 2018 1,542 ± 2.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% 44% 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) April 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) April 9–12, 2018 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% 44%
Mason-Dixon April 4–6, 2018 625 ± 4.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 44% 11%
Gravis Marketing March 5–7, 2018 931 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% 40% 18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,938 ± 3.6% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) January 8–9, 2018 965 ± 3.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% 44% 11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) January 3–4, 2018 1,122 ± 2.9% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 11–12, 2017 965 ± 3.1% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 16–18, 2017 922 ± 3.0% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 5%
Fabrizio Lee (R) July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 42% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% 12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 6%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Austin Petersen
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Austin
Petersen (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 40% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% 4%
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R) July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% 8%
with Vicky Hartzler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Vicky
Hartzler (R)
Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 8%
with Blaine Luetkemeyer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Blaine
Luetkemeyer (R)
Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% 7%
with Todd Richardson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Todd
Richardson (R)
Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 43% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 9%
with Eric Schmitt
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Eric
Schmitt (R)
Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% 6%
with Jason Smith
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Jason
Smith (R)
Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) June 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 45% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% 7%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election Day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.[42] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent state auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.[43]

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | McCaskill Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | Hawley % of
Voters
Gender
Men 42 57 49
Women 51 47 51
Age
18–24 years old 55 42 6
25–29 years old 57 42 7
30–39 years old 52 45 15
40–49 years old 44 54 16
50–64 years old 43 56 31
65 and older 45 54 25
Race
White 42 57 84
Black 91 8 8
Latino 53 44 4
Race by gender
White men 37 62 41
White women 46 52 43
Black men 91 7 4
Black women 90 9 5
Education
High school or less 34 64 22
Some college education 48 51 27
Associate degree 46 53 14
Bachelor's degree 51 48 22
Advanced degree 58 41 15
Party ID
Democrats 93 6 31
Republicans 7 92 37
Independents 46 51 32
Ideology
Liberals 90 9 23
Moderates 60 37 38
Conservatives 8 91 39
Marital status
Married 43 55 63
Unmarried 57 41 37
Gender by marital status
Married men 39 61 34
Married women 49 49 28
Unmarried men 47 50 11
Unmarried women 64 33 21
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 59 38 13
No 44 56 87
Most important issue facing the country
Immigration 13 86 20
Healthcare 71 27 47
Gun policy 52 47 8
Economy 33 65 23
Area type
Urban 67 32 35
Suburban 42 57 37
Rural 27 71 28
Source: CNN[44]

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2018 United States elections