Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Montana
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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMT The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Although Montana went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 percent in 2016, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[1] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Matt Rosendale, Auditor of Montana and candidate for Congress in 2014[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Troy Downing, veteran and businessman[4]
- Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County District Judge[5]
- Albert Olszewski, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012[6]
Withdrew
Declined
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[9][10]
- Robert J. O'Neill, former Navy SEAL (endorsed Troy Downing)[11][12]
- Marc Racicot, former governor and former chairman of the Republican National Committee (endorsed Russell Fagg)[13][14]
- Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2012 and candidate for Congress in 2014[15][16]
- Ryan Zinke, former Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Representative[17][18]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Troy Downing |
Russell Fagg |
Al Olszewski |
Matt Rosendale |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | April 15–16, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 17% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | – | 23% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) | February 5–7, 2018 | 401 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 11% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28% | 1%[19] | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no changeШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Rick Breckenridge, 2016 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives[20]
In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[21] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[21] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[22][23][24]
Green Party
Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[25]
Candidates
Nominee (removed from ballot)
- Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[26]
Eliminated in primary
- Timothy Adams
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no changeШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 29, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[30] | Шаблон:Sort | November 1, 2018 |
| Fox News[31] | Шаблон:Sort | November 1, 2018 |
| CNN[32] | Шаблон:Sort | November 1, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[33] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[34] | Шаблон:Sort | November 6, 2018 |
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jon Tester (D) | $19,499,290 | $17,946,600 | $1,612,530 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Matt Rosendale (R) | $5,034,075 | $4,515,910 | $524,379 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian|Rick Breckenridge (L) | - | - | - |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[35] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Rick Шаблон:Nowrap |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 953 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% |
| HarrisX | November 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 879 | – | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 3% | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 4, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29 – November 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 27–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 40% | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2018 | 782 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| University of Montana | October 10–18, 2018 | 533 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 39% | 2% | – | 10% |
| Montana State University Billings | October 8–13, 2018 | 471 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 38% | 3% | – | 12% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | September 15 – October 6, 2018 | 2,079 | ± 2.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | September 28, 2018 | 594 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing | September 19–22, 2018 | 710 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
| Axis Research (R-NRSC) | September 17–19, 2018 | – | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% |
| AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) | September 6–16, 2018 | 950 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 43% | – | 2% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 453 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 45% | – | 3% | 5% |
| University of Montana | August 13–31, 2018 | 466 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 32% | 2% | – | 9% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) | August 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | – | – | 5% |
| Remington Research (R) | July 8–10, 2018 | 2,581 | ± 2.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 974 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 43% | – | – | 3% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 11–13, 2018 | 469 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 44% | – | – | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12–March 5, 2018 | 1,484 | ± 3.4% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 3% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
By county
From Secretary of State of Montana[36]
| County | Jon Tester Democratic |
Matt Rosendale Republican |
Rick Breckenridge Libertarian |
Total
Votes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Beaverhead | 1,876 | 38.31% | 2,866 | 58.53% | 155 | 3.17% | 4,897 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Big Horn | 3,027 | 64.73% | 1,558 | 33.32% | 91 | 1.95% | 4,676 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Blaine | 1,961 | 64.96% | 982 | 32.53% | 76 | 2.52% | 3,019 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Broadwater | 1,071 | 32.84% | 2,086 | 63.97% | 104 | 3.19% | 3,261 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Carbon | 2,680 | 44.17% | 3,209 | 52.89% | 178 | 2.93% | 6,067 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Carter | 128 | 17.02% | 602 | 80.05% | 22 | 2.93% | 752 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Cascade | 17,435 | 51.27% | 15,566 | 45.77% | 1,008 | 2.96% | 34,009 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Chouteau | 1,275 | 47.99% | 1,312 | 49.38% | 70 | 2.63% | 2,657 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Custer | 1,942 | 39.77% | 2,762 | 56.56% | 179 | 3.67% | 4,883 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Daniels | 281 | 29.86% | 631 | 67.06% | 29 | 3.08% | 941 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Dawson | 1,233 | 30.27% | 2,700 | 66.29% | 140 | 3.44% | 4,073 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Deer Lodge | 2,892 | 68.27% | 1,208 | 28.52% | 136 | 3.21% | 4,236 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Fallon | 281 | 21.80% | 951 | 73.78% | 57 | 4.42% | 1,289 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Fergus | 1,964 | 33.90% | 3,640 | 62.83% | 189 | 3.26% | 5,793 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Flathead | 19,652 | 41.15% | 26,759 | 56.03% | 1,349 | 2.82% | 47,760 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Gallatin | 33,251 | 59.45% | 21,248 | 37.99% | 1,434 | 2.56% | 55,933 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Garfield | 81 | 11.88% | 571 | 83.72% | 30 | 4.40% | 682 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Glacier | 3,754 | 75.14% | 1,153 | 23.08% | 89 | 1.78% | 4,996 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Golden Valley | 130 | 28.63% | 303 | 66.74% | 21 | 4.63% | 454 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Granite | 695 | 38.76% | 1,046 | 58.34% | 52 | 2.90% | 1,793 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Hill | 3,729 | 58.36% | 2,434 | 38.09% | 227 | 3.55% | 6,390 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Jefferson | 2,954 | 43.23% | 3,653 | 53.46% | 226 | 3.31% | 6,833 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Judith Basin | 388 | 32.58% | 752 | 63.14% | 51 | 4.28% | 1,191 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Lake | 6,916 | 50.22% | 6,491 | 47.13% | 365 | 2.65% | 13,772 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Lewis and Clark | 20,506 | 57.70% | 14,106 | 39.69% | 927 | 2.61% | 35,539 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Liberty | 365 | 37.21% | 586 | 59.73% | 30 | 3.06% | 981 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Lincoln | 2,902 | 31.08% | 6,137 | 65.73% | 298 | 3.19% | 9,337 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Madison | 1,890 | 38.11% | 2,898 | 58.44% | 171 | 3.45% | 4,959 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |McCone | 227 | 22.06% | 773 | 75.12% | 29 | 2.82% | 1,029 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Meagher | 319 | 32.68% | 629 | 64.45% | 28 | 2.87% | 976 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Mineral | 785 | 38.14% | 1,181 | 57.39% | 92 | 4.47% | 2,058 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Missoula | 41,688 | 67.62% | 18,631 | 30.22% | 1,332 | 2.16% | 61,651 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Musselshell | 573 | 23.56% | 1,743 | 71.67% | 116 | 4.77% | 2,432 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Park | 5,114 | 52.59% | 4,357 | 44.81% | 253 | 2.60% | 9,724 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Petroleum | 58 | 18.59% | 248 | 79.49% | 6 | 1.92% | 312 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Phillips | 577 | 27.71% | 1,426 | 68.49% | 79 | 3.79% | 2,082 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Pondera | 1,176 | 43.80% | 1,413 | 52.63% | 96 | 3.58% | 2,685 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Powder River | 203 | 20.86% | 748 | 76.88% | 22 | 2.26% | 973 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Powell | 1,026 | 37.17% | 1,641 | 59.46% | 93 | 3.37% | 2,760 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Prairie | 177 | 27.11% | 450 | 68.91% | 26 | 3.98% | 653 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Ravalli | 9,156 | 39.13% | 13,622 | 58.21% | 623 | 2.66% | 23,401 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Richland | 1,136 | 26.22% | 3,017 | 69.64% | 179 | 4.13% | 4,332 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Roosevelt | 2,013 | 58.40% | 1,346 | 39.05% | 88 | 2.55% | 3,447 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Rosebud | 1,511 | 44.88% | 1,765 | 52.42% | 91 | 2.70% | 3,367 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Sanders | 2,071 | 33.65% | 3,856 | 62.66% | 227 | 3.69% | 6,154 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Sheridan | 712 | 39.29% | 1,017 | 56.13% | 83 | 4.58% | 1,812 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Silver Bow | 11,672 | 71.55% | 4,246 | 26.03% | 394 | 2.42% | 16,312 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Stillwater | 1,501 | 30.86% | 3,206 | 65.91% | 157 | 3.23% | 4,864 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Sweet Grass | 652 | 31.08% | 1,372 | 65.40% | 74 | 3.53% | 2,098 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Teton | 1,290 | 40.86% | 1,784 | 56.51% | 83 | 2.63% | 3,157 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Toole | 626 | 32.90% | 1,208 | 63.48% | 69 | 3.63% | 1,903 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Treasure | 129 | 31.16% | 279 | 67.39% | 6 | 1.45% | 414 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Valley | 1,545 | 39.80% | 2,137 | 55.05% | 200 | 5.15% | 3,882 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Wheatland | 315 | 33.76% | 586 | 62.81% | 32 | 3.43% | 933 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Wibaux | 140 | 25.83% | 390 | 71.96% | 12 | 2.21% | 542 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Yellowstone | 32,225 | 46.53% | 34,682 | 50.08% | 2,351 | 3.39% | 69,258 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Rosebud (largest municipality: Colstrip)
- Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections
- ↑ Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Ron Murray 1%
- ↑ Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- ↑ 21,0 21,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
- ↑ Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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