Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Nevada The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Dean Heller.
Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018.
The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.[3]
Background
Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]
At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]
Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.[9]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Sherry Brooks
- Sarah Gazala, teacher[10]
- Vic Harrell
- Tom Heck
- Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator[11]
Withdrew
- Danny Tarkanian, businessman, former attorney and perennial candidate (ran for NV-03 and lost)[12][13]
Declined
- Mark Amodei, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election and won)[14][15]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- with Danny Tarkanian
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller |
Danny Tarkanian |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics | October 24–26, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 17% |
JMC Analytics | August 24–25, 2017 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 31% |
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller) | August 14–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 33% | 12% |
Results
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Danny Burleigh
- David Drew Knight
- Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[16]
- Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative for NV-03[17]
- Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016[18]
Declined
- Stephen Cloobeck, businessman (endorsed Heller)[19][20][21]
- Aaron Ford, Majority Leader of the Nevada Senate (ran for Attorney General and won)[20][22]
- Steven Horsford, former U.S. Representative (ran for NV-04 and won)[20]
- Ruben Kihuen, U.S. Representative (endorsed Rosen)[20][23]
- Kate Marshall, former state treasurer, nominee for Secretary of State in 2014 and nominee for NV-02 in 2011 (ran for Lieutenant Governor and won)[24][25]
- Rory Reid, former chairman of the Clark County Commission, nominee for governor in 2010 and son of former U.S. Senator Harry Reid[26][27]
- Dina Titus, U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2006 (ran for re-election and won)[20][28][29]
- Steve Wolfson, Clark County District Attorney (ran for re-election and won)[30][31]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no changeШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Independents
Candidates
Declared
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 19, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[37] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[38] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
Fox News[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 6, 2018 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Dean Heller (R) Incumbent | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$14,525,094 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$12,538,859 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$2,211,457 |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jacky Rosen (D) | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$21,571,221 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$20,817,629 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$768,851 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[42] |
Polling
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