Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsND The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as other federal, state and local elections in North Dakota.
Incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for reelection to a second term.[1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[2] U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to win this seat since 1958. This marked the first time since 1960 that Republicans held both of North Dakota's Senate seats.
Background
Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points.[3] The race was expected to be extremely competitive and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.[4]
Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement
On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States refused to overturn North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address, and doesn't allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations don't use a conventional address system and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans. The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud, but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic.
A group of seven Native American voters led by Richard Brakebill, a U.S. Navy veteran enrolled in the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, challenged HB 1369 as violating the Equal Protection Clause. In the case of Brakebill v. Jaeger, judge Daniel L. Hovland of the District Court of North Dakota ruled in April 2018 that large parts of HB 1369 were unconstitutional, including the prohibition on IDs with PO box addresses.
North Dakota secretary of state Alvin Jaeger appealed the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and requested a stay on Hovland's ruling. The Eighth Circuit initially rejected Jaeger's stay request, with the primary elections in June 2018 not being affected by HB 1369, but revised its opinion in September 2018 and stayed Hovland's ruling. The plaintiffs filed a motion to the Supreme Court, requesting that they take up the case, but this motion was denied. Consequently, Hovland's ruling remained inoperative and HB 1369 was effective for the November 2018 general elections, with many people without the right ID being unable to vote.[5][6][7][8] Activists reacted to these suppression measures by educating voters, helping them get their identification cards updated, and giving them rides to the polls on election day. This backlash resulted in a Native American turnout that reached an unprecedented level in the election.[9]
Democratic-NPL primary
The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary.[10]
Candidates
Declared
- Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Withdrew
- Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016[10]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Representative[11]
- Thomas O'Neill, former mayor of Niagara[12]
Withdrew
- Tom Campbell, state senator[13][14] (endorsed Kevin Cramer)[15]
- Gary Emineth, businessman and former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party[16]
- Paul Schaffner[17]
Declined
- Rick Becker, state representative and candidate for governor in 2016[18]
- Rick Berg, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[19][20]
- Tammy Miller, businesswoman[21][20]
- Kathy Neset, member of the North Dakota State Board of Higher Education[22][20]
- Ed Schafer, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of North Dakota[23]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer[24][20]
- Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota Attorney General and candidate for governor in 2016[23]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rick Becker |
Rick Berg |
Tom Campbell |
Tammy Miller |
Kathy Neset |
Kelly Schmidt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | October 11–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 3% | 24% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 1% | 4% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 35% |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | May 30 – June 1, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 39% | 7% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[29]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[30] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[31] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Heidi Heitkamp (D) | $27,353,798 | $16,356,442 | $11,142,250 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Kevin Cramer (R) | $5,584,357 | $5,003,819 | $976,045 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32] | |||
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Kevin Cramer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 789 LV | ± 3.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 2% | 4% |
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 3% | 6% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R) | October 23–24, 2018 | 1,498 | ± 2.1% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | – | – |
| Strategic Research Associates Шаблон:Webarchive | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 56% | – | 4% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 2% | 3% |
| 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 3% | 5% | ||
| Strategic Research Associates Шаблон:Webarchive | September 17–27, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | – | 8% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 701 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 2% | 6% |
| 804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 2% | 7% | ||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 457 | ± 7.5% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | – | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 13–15, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | – | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing | February 21–24, 2018 | 385 | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | – | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 821 | ± 3.2% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) | February 18–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 18% |
- with Tom Campbell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Tom Campbell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | October 11–12, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.9% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 15% |
| 1892 Polling (R-Campbell) | May 30 – June 1, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 37% | 20% |
- with Kelly Schmidt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Kelly Schmidt (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | September 10–11, 2017 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 9% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no change Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Eddy (largest city: New Rockford)
- Cavalier (largest city: Langdon)
- Divide (largest city: Crosby)
- Foster (largest city: Carrington)
- Griggs (largest city: Cooperstown)
- McHenry (largest city: Velva)
- Pembina (largest city: Cavalier)
- Name (Largest city: Stanley)
- Ramsey (Largest city: Devils Lake)
- Stutsman (largest city: Jamestown)
- Towner (Largest city: Cando)
- Walsh (largest city: Grafton)
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:North Dakota elections
- ↑ 1,0 1,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news Шаблон:Dead link
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Many Native IDs Won't Be Accepted At North Dakota Polling Places from NPR
- ↑ Has North Dakota Law Made It Harder for Native Americans to Vote? (True) from Snopes
- ↑ Supreme Court ruling does not mean Native Americans can't vote in North Dakota from Politifact
- ↑ Republicans wanted to suppress the Native American vote. It's working from The Guardian
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 10,0 10,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 20,0 20,1 20,2 20,3 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 23,0 23,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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