Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy datesШаблон:Use American English
Шаблон:ForШаблон:DistinguishШаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsTN The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.
Early in the campaign, Bob Corker said that Blackburn's opponent, Democrat Phil Bredesen, was "a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good businessperson", that he had "real appeal" and "crossover appeal", and that the two of them had cooperated well over the years. But Corker said he would vote for Blackburn and donate to her campaign, and questioned whether Bredesen would be able to win a Senate seat in a red state like Tennessee.[1][2] After Corker's praise for Bredesen, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Corker that such comments could cost the Republican Party its Senate majority.[2] Shortly after Corker's comments, President Trump tweeted an endorsement of Blackburn.[2]
In October 2018, singer-songwriter Taylor Swift (an native Tennessean) endorsed Bredesen. The endorsement was notable given that Swift had previously been publicly apolitical, but spoke out because Blackburn's voting record in Congress "appalled" and "terrified" her. Swift shared a link to the nonpartisan voter registration website Vote.org, which saw a significant spike in page views and new registrations. President Donald Trump criticized Swift's endorsement.[3][4][5]
This election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018, with CNN calling it the single most important Senate race in the country. Polls showed the race as close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh started, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. This is believed to have mobilized Republican voters and cost Bredesen any chance of winning.[6] Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe cost him supporters.[7]
On election day, Blackburn defeated Bredesen. This was Tennessee's closest Senate race since 2006, with Blackburn winning by a 10.8% margin. The primaries took place on August 2, 2018, with Blackburn and Bredesen winning their respective party nominations.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[9]
Withdrawn
- Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. Senator[10]
- Rolando Toyos, ophthalmologist and candidate for the Shelby County Commission in 2010[11]
- Larry Crim, perennial candidate[12][13]
- Andy Ogles, former director of the Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity[14][15]
- Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative[16]
Declined
- Mae Beavers, former state senator (formerly ran for Governor)[17]
- Diane Black, U.S. Representative (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)[17]
- Randy Boyd, former commissioner of the Department of Economic and Community Development (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)[17]
- Tim Burchett, Knox County Mayor (running for TN-02)[18][19]
- Joe Carr, former state representative, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for TN-06 in 2016[20][21][22]
- Chuck Fleischmann, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for reelection)[17]
- Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran for TN-07)[21][23]
- Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)[17]
- Bill Haslam, Governor of Tennessee[24]
- David Kustoff, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for reelection)[17]
- Bill Lee, businessman (ran for Governor)[17]
- Peyton Manning, retired football player[25][26]
- Randy McNally, Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee[17]
- Ron Ramsey, former lieutenant governor and candidate for governor in 2010[17]
Speculation surrounding Senator Corker
On September 26, 2017, Republican Senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek another term in 2018.[27] Without Corker running, it was widely believed that the Republican Party would have a much harder time keeping the seat. Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire. Former U.S. Representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. Representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn.[28] Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.[29]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn |
Stephen Fincher |
Rolando Toyos |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | January 14–15, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 66% | 13% | – | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | December 12–18, 2017 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 58% | 11% | 4% | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn |
Bob Corker |
Stephen Fincher |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R-AFFPA) | February 14–19, 2018 | 926 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 29% | – | 23% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | February 13–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 26% | – | 19% |
| Victory Phones (R-SCF) | February 12–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 26% | 9% | 16% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | January 14–15, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 63% | 25% | – | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bob Corker |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton/Tennessee Star | May 31 - June 5, 2018 | 1,007 | ± 3.1% | 41.6% | 41.6% | 17.3% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Phil Bredesen, former Governor of Tennessee and former Mayor of Nashville[30]
Eliminated in primary
- Gary Davis[9]
- John Wolfe Jr.[9] attorney and perennial candidate
Withdrawn
- James Mackler, attorney and veteran[31]
- Bill Bailey, teaching assistant and retired UPS trailer mechanic[32]
Declined
- Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga[33]
- Megan Barry, former Mayor of Nashville[17]
- Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1994[17]
- Karl Dean, former Mayor of Nashville (running for Governor)[34][35][36]
- Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)[37]
- Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015[17][38]
- Lee Harris, Minority Leader of the Tennessee Senate[37]
- Jeff Yarbro, state senator[39][40]
- Raumesh Akbari, state representative[37]
- John Ray Clemmons, state representative[41]
- Tim McGraw, country musician, songwriter and actor[42]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Independents
- Dean Hill, US Army Veteran, Ex-Government, Business Owner, Realtor
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| NYT[46] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[47] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[48] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[49] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[50] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[51] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[52] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 25, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 10, 2018
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements boxШаблон:Endorsements box
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Marsha Blackburn (R) | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$11,568,094 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$9,062,332 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align="right" |$2,505,762 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Phil Bredesen (D) | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$14,868,198 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$11,693,910 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align="right" |$3,174,289 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[53] | |||
Polling
Файл:Polling for the 2018 US Senate election Tennessee.png
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | October 28–31, 2018 | 480 | – | 49% | 49% | – | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 621 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 44% | 2% | 3% |
| FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 718 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 41% | 3% | 5% |
| 850 RV | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 40% | 3% | 8% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 53% | 47% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 764 LV | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 45% | 0% | 3% |
| 871 RV | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 46% | 0% | 4% | ||
| East Tennessee State University Шаблон:Webarchive | October 22–29, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | – | – |
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 497 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| NBC News/Marist | October 23–27, 2018 | 471 LV | ± 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 46% | 1% | 3% |
| 764 RV | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | 46% | 1% | 3% | ||
| Vanderbilt University/SSRS | October 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.9% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 1% | 8% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 9–12, 2018 | 558 LV | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 48% | – | – |
| 801 RV | – | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 11% | ||
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 54% | 40% | – | 6% |
| Ipsos | October 4–11, 2018 | 1,108 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
| YouGov | October 2–5, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 50% | 42% | 2% | 6% |
| FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 666 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 41% | 3% | 8% | ||
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) | September 23–25, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 1,609 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 42% | – | 15% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 567 | ± 4.1% | 49% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 723 LV | ± 4.3% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 0% | 3% |
| 852 RV | ± 3.9% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 0% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | September 10–12, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 686 LV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 44% | 1% | 8% |
| 809 RV | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% | 43% | 2% | 9% | ||
| NBC News/Marist | August 25–28, 2018 | 538 LV | ± 5.1% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | <1% | 5% |
| 730 RV | ± 4.5% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | <1% | 7% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | August 9–11, 2018 | 620 | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 37% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 5% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Duty and Country PAC) | July 10–11, 2018 | 583 | ± 4.1% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | – | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | July 9–11, 2018 | 551 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 38% | 35% | – | 11% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,010 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 55% | 41% | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) | April 30 – May 1, 2018 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,638 | ± 4.0% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | – | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon | April 17–19, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 11% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) | April 9–11, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | – | 8% |
| Middle Tennessee State University | March 22–29, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,014 | ± 3.1% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 13% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | February 13–15, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 39% | – | 17% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | January 26–29, 2018 | – | – | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | – | 8% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 40% | – | 10% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | December 13–14 & 17, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | – | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) | October 20–22, 2017 | 601 | ± 4.1% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | – | 13% |
- with generic Republican and generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | September 10–12, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 52% | 41% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 1,014 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 41% | – | 8% |
- with Bob Corker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bob Corker (R) |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | February 13–15, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 21% |
- with Stephen Fincher
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Stephen Fincher (R) |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 20% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) | December 13–14 and 17, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 28% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 20% |
- with Clay Travis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
Clay Travis (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 48% | 37% | 6% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Stephen Fincher (R) |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
Clay Travis (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 39% | 10% | 16% |
- with Bob Corker and generic Democrat
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 21,0 21,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 37,0 37,1 37,2 Шаблон:Cite web
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- Английская Википедия
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- United States Senate elections in Tennessee
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