Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Virginia
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Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsVA The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.
The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.[1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. Senator, former governor, and Democratic nominee for vice president in 2016[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Nick Freitas, state delegate[3]
- E. W. Jackson, pastor, attorney, veteran, candidate for the U.S Senate in 2012 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013[4]
- Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013 and candidate for governor in 2017[5]
Failed to qualify
- Minerva Diaz, veteran, businesswoman, and Christian minister[6][7]
- Bert Mizusawa, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Army, retired U.S. Army Major General and candidate for VA-02 in 2010[8]
- Ivan Raiklin, veteran and businessman[9]
Declined
- Dave Brat, U.S. Representative[10][11][12]
- Eric Cantor, former Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives[10]
- Barbara Comstock, U.S. Representative[10][11][12]
- Ken Cuccinelli, former attorney general and nominee for governor in 2013[10][11]
- Tom Davis, former U.S. Representative[10][11]
- Jim Gilmore, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and candidate for president in 2008 and 2016[13][12][14]
- Jimmie Massie, former state delegate[11][13][12]
- Pete Snyder, technology entrepreneur and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013[10][13][12]
- Scott Taylor, U.S. Representative[12]
- Rob Wittman, U.S. Representative[10][15]
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, nominee for the U.S. Senate from California in 2010 and candidate for president in 2016[16]
- Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014,[11] and nominee for governor in 2017
- Shak Hill, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for VA-10)[17]
- Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator (endorsed Corey Stewart)[18]
- Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia (endorsed Nick Freitas)[19][20]
- John Moore, University of Virginia law professor and former diplomat[21][22]
- Frank Wagner, state senator and candidate for governor in 2017[11]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nick Freitas |
E. W. Jackson |
Corey Stewart |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) | May 14–18, 2018 | 355 | ± 5.2% | 9% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 422 | ± 2.5% | 6% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 16% | 5%[23] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 66% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Brat |
Corey Stewart |
Scott Taylor |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 11% | 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 20% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 38% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | 9% | 12% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 20% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Third party candidates
- Matt Waters, director of development at Students For Liberty,[24] received the Libertarian Party nomination on March 10, 2018.[25][26] On June 28, 2018, he also received the endorsement of the Constitution Party of Virginia.[27]
- Winsome Sears, a Republican former state delegate, ran as a write-in candidate.[28]
General election
The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota.[29] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[33] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 14, 2018 |
Debates/Townhalls
| Host network/sponsors |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kaine (D) |
Corey Stewart (R) |
Matt Waters (L) | |||
| PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association | July 21, 2018 | [1] | Invited | Invited | — |
| Hampton University/Liberty University | September 20, 2018 | [2] | Invited | Invited | — |
| WRC-TV | September 26, 2018 | [3] | Invited | Invited | — |
| Liberty University | October 3, 2018 | [4] | Invited | Invited | — |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Corey Stewart (R) |
Matt Waters (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington/SSRS | September 4–9, 2018 | 512 LV | ± 5.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 4% |
| 704 RV | ± 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 7% | ||
| 801 A | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) | August 22–24, 2018 | 1,119 | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 46% | – | – | 4% |
| Roanoke College | August 12–19, 2018 | 512 | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 34% | 4% | – | 11% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 10–30, 2018 | 757 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 26% | 5% | – | 20% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 21–25, 2018 | 1,082 | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 36% | – | 0% | 9% |
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 32% | – | 1% | 11% |
| University of Mary Washington/PSRAI | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 36% | – | – | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 39% | – | 1% | 4% |
- with Nick Freitas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Nick Freitas (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 33% | 1% | 10% |
- with E. W. Jackson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
E. W. Jackson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 20–30, 2018 | 555 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 30% | – | 25% |
| Christopher Newport University | February 5–28, 2018 | 1,562 | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 32% | 1% | 11% |
- with Dave Brat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Dave Brat (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 36% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 41% | 3% |
- with Barbara Comstock
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Barbara Comstock (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 41% | 6% |
- with Carly Fiorina
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Carly Fiorina (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | 33% | – | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 41% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | 36% | 2% | 5% |
- with Laura Ingraham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Laura Ingraham (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 35% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 36% | 2% | 7% |
- with Scott Taylor
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Scott Taylor (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 37% | 7% |
| 867 RV | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 41% | 4% |
Results
Kaine won the election by a wide margin.[36] Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chesterfield (no municipalities)
- Fluvanna (largest city: Lake Monticello)
- Lynchburg (independent city)
- James City (no municipalities)
- Stafford (no municipalities)
- Waynesboro (independent city)
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Buckingham (largest town: Dillwyn)
See also
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections Шаблон:Tim Kaine
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 10,0 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,4 10,5 10,6 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 11,0 11,1 11,2 11,3 11,4 11,5 11,6 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 12,0 12,1 12,2 12,3 12,4 12,5 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 13,0 13,1 13,2 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Ivan Raiklin* 1%, Other 4%. *Failed to qualify.
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite press release
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