Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in West Virginia The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic senator Joe Manchin sought a second full term. He and Republican state attorney general Patrick Morrisey won their respective parties’ primaries on May 8, 2018. Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's partisan lean and his declining popularity
Manchin defeated Morrisey to win a second full term, albeit by a margin much narrower than that of his landslide 2012 victory. As of 2023, this is the last time Democrats won a federal and/or statewide election in West Virginia.
Background
West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but has been rapidly shifting towards the Republican Party since 2000. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 55–42%. From 1959 to 2015, Democrats held both of West Virginia’s U.S. Senate seats.
In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama 62–35% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.
Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.
Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections.[1] Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.
Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle. Manchin ultimately won re-election, though by a much narrower margin of victory than his 2012 landslide.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Paula Jean Swearengin, social and environmental activist[3]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Joe Manchin |
Paula Jean Swearengin |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) | September 2017 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 8% | 38% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in the primary
- Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy[8]
- Bo Copley, coal miner[9]
- Evan Jenkins, U.S. Representative[10]
- Jack Newbrough, truck driver and navy veteran[11]
- Tom Willis, army veteran[12]
Declined
- Ryan Ferns, Majority Leader of the West Virginia Senate (running for reelection)[13][14]
- David McKinley, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[15][16]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)
Endorsements
Debates
| Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Jenkins |
Patrick Morrisey |
Don Blankenship |
Bo Copley |
Jack Newbrough |
Tom Willis | |||
| Fox News | May 1, 2018 | [17] | Invited | Invited | Invited | – | – | – |
| WVPB | April 23, 2018 | [18] | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Don Blankenship |
Evan Jenkins |
Patrick Morrisey |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) | April 22–23, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 15% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28% | – | 18% |
| Fox News | April 18–22, 2018 | 985 | ± 3.0% | 16% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 25% | 21% | 8%[19] | 24% |
| National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Шаблон:Webarchive | April 17–19, 2018 | 411 | ± 4.9% | 12% | 20% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 5%[20] | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 39% |
| Osage Research (R-Morrisey) | March 13, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 23% | 17% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 4%[21] | – |
| Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) | March 5–6, 2018 | 400 | – | 27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 29% | 19% | 10%[22] | 15% |
| Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) | February 5–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 18% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 33% | 25% | 12% | 12% |
| – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 42% | 36% | – | 22% | ||||
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) | October 19–22, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 40% | – | 26% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Nominated
- Rusty Hollen[23]
Constitution Party
Candidates
Denied ballot access
- Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election.[24] Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate.[25] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.[26]
Endorsements
General election
Candidates
- Mark Brazaitis (Independent, write-in), author and deputy mayor of Morgantown, West Virginia[27]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[31] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[32] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[33] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[34] | Шаблон:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[35] | Шаблон:Sort | November 6, 2018 |
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Joe Manchin (D) | $8,872,162 | $6,459,930 | $4,200,530 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Patrick Morrisey (R) | $4,943,056 | $3,315,300 | $1,627,756 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[36] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Rusty Hollen (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 42% | 3% | – | 8% |
| Research America Inc. | October 19–30, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 40% | 11% | – | 5% |
| Strategic Research Associates Шаблон:Webarchive | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 36% | 4% | – | 8% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) Шаблон:Webarchive | October 16–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 3% | – | 12% |
| 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | – | – | 8% | ||||
| Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 789 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 47% | – | – | – |
| The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) | October 11–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 3% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) | October 7–9, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 40% | 8% | – | – |
| Strategic Research AssociatesШаблон:Dead link | September 17–26, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 38% | 3% | – | 13% |
| 1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) | September 24–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) | September 23–25, 2018 | 612 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 43% | 5% | – | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) | September 19–23, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 36% | 4% | – | – |
| Emerson College | September 13–15, 2018 | 825 | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 33% | – | 6% | 16% |
| Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) | August 23–26, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 41% | – | – | 12% |
| Research America Inc. | August 16–26, 2018 | 404 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 38% | – | – | 16% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | July 13–16, 2018 | 1,158 | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 40% | 2% | – | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 892 | ± 5.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 40% | – | – | 6% |
| Monmouth University | June 14–19, 2018 | 653 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | – | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2018 | 633 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 42% | – | – | 9% |
| Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) | May 15–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 40% | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) | May 13–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 40% | 4% | – | – | ||||
| WPA Intelligence (R) | May 10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | – | – | 11% |
| Zogby Analytics | September 27–30, 2017 | 320 | ± 5.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 38% | – | – | 17% |
| Research America Inc. | August 11–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 37% | – | – | 12% |
| Harper Polling Шаблон:Webarchive | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 57% | 35% | – | – | 8% |
- with Don Blankenship
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Don Шаблон:Nowrap |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc. | August 16–26, 2018 | 404 | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 34% | 8% | – | 13% |
| Monmouth University | June 14–19, 2018 | 653 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 39% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2018 | 633 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 35% | 11% | – | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing | May 22, 2018 | 543 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 39% | 5% | – | – |
- with generic Republican
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite magazine
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite webШаблон:Dead link
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Tom Willis with 4 percent, Bo Copley with 2 percent, and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
- ↑ Tom Willis with 3 percent, Bo Copley and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
- ↑ Bo Copley with 2.5 percent, Tom Willis with 1.4 percent, and Jack Newbrough with "an unregistered amount"
- ↑ Tom Willis and Jack Newbrough with 4 percent; Bo Copley with 2 percent
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
Шаблон:Cite web - ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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