Английская Википедия:2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsWI
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with a gubernatorial election and U.S. House elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won a second term, defeating Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no changeШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box write-in with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Barman[4]
- Griffin Jones[5]
- George Lucia[6]
- Kevin Nicholson, businessman and member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs[7]
Declined
- David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff[8][9]
- Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[10][11]
- Scott Fitzgerald, State Senate Majority Leader[10]
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. Representative[10]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative[10]
- Eric Hovde, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[10][12]
- Rebecca Kleefisch, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin[13]
- Dale Kooyenga, state representative[10]
- Nicole Schneider, businesswoman[14][15]
- Duey Stroebel, state senator[16]
- Charlie Sykes, talk radio host[17]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (running for reelection)[18]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Clarke |
Sean Duffy |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 15–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican align=center| 32% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 42% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no changeШаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box write-in with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
General election
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[22]Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Leah Vukmir (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 44% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | October 24–28, 2018 | 1,154 LV | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 43% | – | 1% |
1,400 RV | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Ipsos | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,193 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | October 10–11, 2018 | 816 | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Marquette University | October 3–7, 2018 | 799 LV | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 43% | – | 2% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Marist College | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 571 LV | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
781 RV | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 40% | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,109 | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
Marquette University | September 12–16, 2018 | 614 LV | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 53% | 42% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 52% | 40% | – | 4% | ||
Suffolk University Шаблон:Webarchive | August 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
Marquette University | August 15–19, 2018 | 601 LV | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 47% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 43% | – | 4% | ||
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 36% | 4% | 10% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 38% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 56% | 40% | – | 4% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 40% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
- with Kevin Nicholson
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Kevin Nicholson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 42% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 39% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
- with generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,668 | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 46% | 5% |
- with David Clarke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
David Clarke (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
- with Sean Duffy
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Sean Duffy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 36% | 2% | 13% |
Results
Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[25]
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link
Шаблон:Election box total
Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
- Forest (largest city: Crandon)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
- Pepin (largest city: Durand)
- Price (largest city: Park Falls)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
- Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Despite winning by over 10 percentage points, Baldwin only won 3 out of 8 Congressional districts.
District | Vukmir | Baldwin | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:Ushr | 50.3% | 49.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Bryan Steil |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Шаблон:Ushr | 26.4% | 73.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Mark Pocan |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Шаблон:Ushr | 43.5% | 56.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Ron Kind |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Шаблон:Ushr | 21.3% | 78.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Gwen Moore |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:Ushr | 56.9% | 43.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Jim Sensenbrenner |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:Ushr | 52.4% | 47.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Glenn Grothman |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:Ushr | 52.2% | 47.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Sean Duffy |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:Ushr | 51.5% | 48.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Mike Gallagher |
See also
Notes
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2018 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 10,0 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,4 10,5 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>
; для сносокtwitter1a
не указан текст - ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- Английская Википедия
- Страницы с неработающими файловыми ссылками
- United States Senate elections in Wisconsin
- 2018 United States Senate elections
- 2018 Wisconsin elections
- Страницы, где используется шаблон "Навигационная таблица/Телепорт"
- Страницы с телепортом
- Википедия
- Статья из Википедии
- Статья из Английской Википедии
- Страницы с ошибками в примечаниях