Английская Википедия:2019 Brandenburg state election
Шаблон:Infobox election The 2019 Brandenburg state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Brandenburg.[1][2] It took place on the same day as the 2019 Saxony state election. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Left, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke.
The SPD, Left, and opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered substantial losses. The SPD remained the largest party with 26% of votes, followed by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which doubled its result to 23.5% and moved into second place. The CDU fell to third with 16%. The Greens improved to 11%, though they underperformed compared to prior opinion polling. The Left also recorded a result below expectations, falling from third to fifth place with 11%. The Brandenburg Free Voters (BVB/FW) narrowly passed the 5% electoral threshold and won five seats, up from three.
The incumbent government lost its majority. All parties ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and two possible coalitions were considered: a "Kenya coalition" of the SPD, CDU, and Greens which would hold 50 seats, and a "red-red-green" coalition of the SPD, Greens, and Left, which would hold 45 (a one-seat majority).[3] On 16 November, both the SPD and CDU voted in favour of a Kenya coalition, followed by the Greens on 18 November.[4] Woidke was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 20 November.[5]
Background
Since German reunification, the SPD has been the strongest party in Brandenburg on a state level, and has held the office of Minister-President continuously.
The SPD and Left formed a coalition government after the 2009 state election, which was renewed after the 2014 state election. In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg on 19.9%, ahead of the CDU (18.0%) and SPD (17.2%).
Electoral system
In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 members. 44 are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies (direct mandates), and the remainder are filled by party-list proportional representation. The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method (Hare-Niemeyer method). Only parties whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% electoral threshold or which have won a direct mandate (the "basic mandate clause") are allocated seats.[6] Overhang and leveling seats can expand the Landtag to a maximum size of 110 seats. This is detailed in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.[7]
According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. In 2019, the date was set for 1 September 2019.[6]
The minimum voting age is 16 years.
Parties
The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Brandenburg.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2014 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Шаблон:Small |
Social democracy | Dietmar Woidke | 31.9% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Шаблон:Small |
Christian democracy | Ingo Senftleben | 23.0% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | Linke | The Left Шаблон:Small |
Democratic socialism | Kathrin Dannenberg | 18.6% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | AfD | Alternative for Germany Шаблон:Small |
German nationalism Right-wing populism |
Andreas Kalbitz | 12.2% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Шаблон:Small |
Green politics | Ursula Nonnemacher | 6.2% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | BVB/FW | Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters Шаблон:Small |
Regionalism | Péter Vida | 2.7% | Шаблон:Composition bar |
Opinion polls
Файл:Opinion polling for the 2019 Brandenburg state election.svg
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | CDU | Linke | AfD | Grüne | FDP | BVB/FW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| | ||||||
| 2019 state election | 1 Sep 2019 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 26.2 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 23.5 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26–29 Aug 2019 | 1,653 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 22 | 16.5 | 14 | 21 | 14.5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| Civey | 31 Jul–28 Aug 2019 | 2,460 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 20.3 | 17.9 | 15.5 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 20.3 | 14.8 | 4.9 | – | 6.3 | Tie |
| INSA | 19–26 Aug 2019 | 1,019 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 21 | 17 | 15 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 21 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | Tie |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 19–22 Aug 2019 | 1,112 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 21 | 18 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 4 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–21 Aug 2019 | 1,002 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 22 | 18 | 15 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 22 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | Tie |
| Civey | 16 Jul–13 Aug 2019 | 2,981 | 18.2 | 17.1 | 14.7 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 21.0 | 17.2 | 5.5 | – | 6.3 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3.2"| 3.2 |
| Forsa | 25 Jul–5 Aug 2019 | 1,009 | 17 | 18 | 14 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 21 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3"| 3 |
| Civey | 19 Jun–17 Jul 2019 | 2,895 | 17.2 | 16.3 | 16.9 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 21.3 | 15.1 | 5.2 | – | 8.0 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-4.1"| 4.1 |
| INSA | 24 Jun–1 Jul 2019 | 1,001 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 19 | 18 | 16 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 19 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | Tie |
| Civey | 15 May–12 Jun 2019 | 3,007 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 21.4 | 16.3 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 12.0 | 4.3 | – | 6.9 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1.8 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–6 Jun 2019 | 1,000 | 18 | 17 | 14 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 21 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 4 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-3"| 3 |
| INSA | 13–28 May 2019 | 1,011 | 19 | Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 20 | 18 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 3 | Tie |
| 2019 European election | 26 May 2019 | – | 17.2 | 18.0 | 12.3 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 19.9 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.2Шаблон:Efn | 13.7 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1.9 |
| Civey | 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 | 1,380 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23.0 | 19.9 | 16.8 | 20.9 | 9.2 | 4.4 | – | 5.8 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.1 |
| Infratest dimap | 2–6 Apr 2019 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 22 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 5 | – | 6 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2 |
| Civey | End Jan–22 Feb 2019 | 5,955 | 21.8 | Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 22.1 | 20.0 | 18.8 | 7.0 | 4.4 | – | 5.9 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-0.3"| 0.3 |
| INSA | 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 | 1,006 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 21 | Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 21 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Tie |
| Forsa | 17–20 Dec 2018 | 1,005 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 20 | 19 | 17 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 20 | 12 | 5 | – | 7 | Tie |
| pmg | 19 Nov–6 Dec 2018 | 1,006 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 10 | 3 | – | 4 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–17 Sep 2018 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23 | 21 | 17 | Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 23 | 7 | 5 | – | 4 | Tie |
| INSA | 10–17 Aug 2018 | 1,048 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 11–16 Apr 2018 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23 | Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 23 | 17 | 22 | 7 | 4 | – | 4 | Tie |
| Infratest dimap | 7–11 Nov 2017 | 1,005 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 23 | 22 | 17 | 20 | 6 | 7 | – | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1 |
| Forsa | 7–9 Nov 2017 | 1,002 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 25 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 6 | 5 | – | 6 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 Sep 2017 | – | 17.6 | Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 26.7 | 17.2 | 20.2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 1.2Шаблон:Efn | 5.1 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-6.5"| 6.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 15–19 Jun 2017 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 28 | 25 | 18 | 15 | 6 | 3 | – | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3 |
| Forsa | 9–13 Jan 2017 | 1,003 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 7 | 4 | – | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–28 Nov 2016 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 | 25 | 17 | 16 | 6 | – | – | 6 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5 |
| Forsa | 20–26 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–23 May 2016 | 1,002 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 29 | 23 | 17 | 20 | 6 | – | – | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6 |
| Forsa | 14–17 Mar 2016 | 1,003 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 31 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 7 | 3 | – | 5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12 |
| Forsa | 9–17 Dec 2015 | 1,002 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 36 | 21 | 18 | 11 | 6 | – | – | 8 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 15 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–16 Nov 2015 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 33 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 6 | – | – | 6 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10 |
| Forsa | Sep 2015 | 1,002 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 35 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 7 | – | – | 7 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–8 Feb 2015 | 1,000 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 34 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 5 | – | – | 7 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9 |
| Forsa | Dec 2014 | 1,001 | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 34 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 8 | – | – | 9 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12 |
| 2014 state election | 14 Sep 2014 | – | Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 31.9 | 23.0 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 5.5 | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8.9 |
Results
By early afternoon, significantly more people had voted than at the same time in the 2014 election. According to the state election director, 31.3% of voters cast their ballots by 2:00 PM. At the time in 2014, the figure was only 22.4%.[8]
Government formation
The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke (SPD) invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats.[3] Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.[9]
On November 16, both the CDU and SPD voted in favor of a "Kenya coalition."[4] The Greens approved the coalition on the 18th; Woidke was duly voted in for his second term as Minister-President two days later by a count of 47 to 37 with 3 abstentions. The coalition commands 50 seats.[10][5]
Notes
References
External links
Шаблон:2019 elections in Germany Шаблон:Brandenburg state elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 5,0 5,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 6,0 6,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Brandenburgisches Landeswahlgesetz Fassung: 28. Januar 2004, Änderung: 11. Februar 2014
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
