Английская Википедия:2019 Saxony state election

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Шаблон:Infobox election The 2019 Saxony state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Saxony. The outgoing government was a grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Michael Kretschmer.

The CDU, SPD, and The Left suffered heavy losses. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) moved into second place with 27.5% of votes, an increase of almost 18 percentage points. The Left fell from second to third place, underperforming opinion polls with 10%. The Greens recorded an improvement to 8.6%, but also fared more poorly than expected. The SPD fell to fifth place with 8%.[1] The election saw a major increase in voter turnout, rising from less than half in 2014 to 66.5% in 2019.

The incumbent grand coalition lost its majority, necessitating the formation of a new government. The CDU subsequently negotiated a "Kenya coalition" with the Greens and SPD. Michael Kretschmer was re-elected as Minister-President on 20 December.[2]

Background

In the 2014 state election, the CDU entered into coalition with the SPD. Since then, Saxony emerged as a stronghold of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which achieved its best results in Saxony in national elections since. It won narrow pluralities in the state in both the 2017 federal election, winning 27.0%, and the 2019 European elections, winning 25.3%.[3]

In May 2019, the Saxon electoral commission ruled that two-thirds of AfD's candidate list was invalid due to the party's decision to split them across two lists.[4] However, in July, a court partially overturned this decision, ruling half of the party's list eligible.[5]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2014 result
Votes (%) Seats
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Christian democracy Michael Kretschmer 39.4% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | Linke The Left
Шаблон:Small
Democratic socialism Rico Gebhardt 18.9% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Social democracy Martin Dulig 12.4% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | AfD Alternative for Germany
Шаблон:Small
German nationalism
Right-wing populism
Jörg Urban 9.7% Шаблон:Composition bar
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Шаблон:Small
Green politics Katja Meier
Wolfram Günther
5.7% Шаблон:Composition bar

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Файл:Opinion polling for the 2019 Saxony state election.svg

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD AfD Grüne NPD FDP Others Lead
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 32.1 10.4 7.7 27.5 8.6 0.6 4.5 8.6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,657 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 32 14 8.5 24.5 11 5 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7.5
Civey 4–28 Aug 2019 5,015 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29.0 15.0 8.9 24.9 10.9 5.7 5.6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.1
INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,018 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29 15 8 25 11 5 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,068 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 14 9 25 10 5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 16 7 24 11 5 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
Civey 23 Jul–20 Aug 2019 5,016 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28.0 15.0 8.5 25.2 11.4 5.5 6.4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.8
FB Czaplicki 8–15 Aug 2019 700 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28.0 16.0 8.0 26.0 13.0 5.0 4.0 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
INSA 22–31 Jul 2019 1,011 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 16 8 25 12 5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Civey 27 Jun–25 Jul 2019 5,019 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 27.1 15.0 8.7 25.4 10.8 5.6 7.4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1.7
Infratest dimap 24–29 Jun 2019 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 26 15 9 Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 26 12 5 7 Tie
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 5,001 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29.7 16.6 10.3 23.5 10.6 4.6 4.7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6.2
INSA 4–11 Jun 2019 1,057 24 16 7 Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 25 16 6 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1"| 1
FB Czaplicki 29 May–4 Jun 2019 703 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 24 15 8 Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 24 14 6 9 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 23.0 11.7 8.6 Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 25.3 10.3 0.8 4.7 15.6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.3
INSA 17–24 Apr 2019 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 16 10 26 9 6 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 3,852 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29.4 17.4 11.6 20.8 9.9 6.1 4.8 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8.6
INSA 7–18 Mar 2019 1,028 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 17 9 25 9 6 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
FB Czaplicki 4–13 Mar 2019 703 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 27 17 11 18 16 5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29 18 10 25 9 6 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
IM Field 2–14 Nov 2018 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 29 17 11 24 8 6 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
INSA 27–30 Aug 2018 1,040 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 18 11 25 7 7 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
uniQma 20–28 Aug 2018 703 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28.9 18.6 11.4 23.9 6.8 5.6 4.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5.0
Infratest dimap 20–25 Aug 2018 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 18 11 25 6 5 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
INSA 4–11 Jun 2018 1,009 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 32 19 9 24 6 6 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
IM Field 16 Nov–2 Dec 2017 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 18 12 23 4 7 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
IM Field 23–26 Oct 2017 1,005 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 17 14 21 4 7 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 26.9 16.1 10.5 Шаблон:Party shading/AfD| 27.0 4.6 1.1 8.2 5.6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-0.2"| 0.2
Infratest dimap 12–17 Jun 2017 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 41 15 10 21 4 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 20
Infratest dimap 15–19 Nov 2016 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 16 12 25 7 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
INSA 19–23 Sep 2016 1,003 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 37.5 16 13 21.5 6 1.5 2 2.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16
Infratest dimap 9–14 Sep 2015 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 38 17 13 13 7 5 3 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 21
2014 state election 31 Aug 2014 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 39.4 18.9 12.4 9.7 5.7 4.9 3.8 5.1 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 20.5

Election result

Шаблон:Election table | colspan=13 align=center| Файл:LandtagSaxony19.svg |- ! rowspan=2 colspan=2| Party ! colspan=4| Constituency ! colspan=4| Party list ! rowspan=2| Total
seats ! rowspan=2| +/- ! rowspan=2| Seats % |- ! Votes ! % ! +/- ! Seats ! Votes ! % ! +/- ! Seats |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 703,006 | 32.5 | Шаблон:Decrease7.2 | 41 | 695,560 | 32.1 | Шаблон:Decrease7.3 | 4 | 45 | Шаблон:Decrease14 | 37.8 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 613,585 | 28.4 | Шаблон:Increase22.0 | 15 | 595,671 | 27.5 | Шаблон:Increase17.7 | 23 | 38 | Шаблон:Increase24 | 31.9 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| The Left (Die Linke) | 265,871 | 12.3 | Шаблон:Decrease8.7 | 1 | 224,354 | 10.4 | Шаблон:Decrease8.5 | 13 | 14 | Шаблон:Decrease13 | 11.8 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) | 192,489 | 8.9 | Шаблон:Increase2.6 | 3 | 187,015 | 8.6 | Шаблон:Increase2.9 | 9 | 12 | Шаблон:Increase4 | 10.1 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 166,920 | 7.7 | Шаблон:Decrease5.5 | 0 | 167,289 | 7.7 | Шаблон:Decrease4.6 | 10 | 10 | Шаблон:Decrease8 | 8.4 |- ! colspan=13| |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 100,639 | 4.7 | Шаблон:Increase0.6 | 0 | 97,438 | 4.5 | Шаблон:Increase0.7 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Free Voters (FW) | 98,353 | 4.6 | Шаблон:Increase2.6 | 0 | 72,897 | 3.4 | Шаблон:Increase1.8 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Die PARTEI (PARTEI) | 12,557 | 0.6 | Шаблон:Increase0.4 | 0 | 33,618 | 1.6 | Шаблон:Increase0.9 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) | – | – | Шаблон:Steady0.0 | – | 33,476 | 1.5 | Шаблон:Increase0.4 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| National Democratic Party (NPD) | – | – | Шаблон:Steady0.0 | – | 12,947 | 0.6 | Шаблон:Decrease4.3 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=black| | align=left| Partei für Gesundheitsforschung | – | – | New | – | 11,652 | 0.5 | New | 0 | 0 | New | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Blaue #TeamPetry Thüringen | 1,508 | 0.1 | New | 0 | 7,806 | 0.4 | New | 0 | 0 | New | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) | – | – | Шаблон:Decrease1.6 | – | 6,632 | 0.3 | Шаблон:Decrease0.8 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) | – | – | | – | 6,000 | 0.3 | Шаблон:Increase0.3 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=#110077| | align=left| Party of Humanists (Humanisten) | – | – | New | – | 4,305 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New | 0 |- | | align=left| Dawn of German Patriots – Middle Germany (ADPM) | – | – | New | – | 3,948 | 0.2 | New | 0 | 0 | New | 0 |- | bgcolor=#005488| | align=left| Party of Reason (PDV) | – | – | | – | 2,268 | 0.1 | Шаблон:Increase0.1 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=#FF0000| | align=left| Communist Party of Germany (KPD) | – | – | | – | 1,951 | 0.1 | Шаблон:Increase0.1 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | | align=left| Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo) | – | – | Шаблон:Decrease0.4 | – | 1,630 | 0.1 | Шаблон:Decrease0.1 | 0 | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- | bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| | align=left| Other | 2,732 | 0.1 | | 0 | – | – | – | – | 0 | ±0 | 0 |- ! colspan=2| Valid votes ! 2,159,850 ! 98.7 ! ! ! 2,166,457 ! 99.0 ! ! ! ! ! |- ! colspan=2| Blank and invalid votes ! 28,636 ! 1.3 ! ! ! 22,029 ! 1.0 ! ! ! ! ! |- ! colspan=2| Total ! 2,188,486 ! 100.0 ! ! 60 ! 2,188,486 ! 100.0 ! ! 59 ! 119 ! Шаблон:Decrease7 ! |- ! colspan=2| Electorate/voter turnout ! 3,288,643 ! 66.5 ! Шаблон:Increase 17.4 ! ! 3,288,643 ! 66.5 ! Шаблон:Increase 17.4 ! ! ! ! |- | colspan=13| Source: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen |}

AfD received its highest share of the vote in any state or federal election, while the CDU and The Left both fell to record lows in Saxony. Under normal circumstances AfD should have received 39 seats in the Landtag; however, due to positions 31–61 being ruled invalid and removed from AfD's party list, they had no candidates to fill the final seat. Thus, it remains vacant and there are only 119 seats in the Landtag, one fewer than the standard minimum size.

Government formation

Incumbent Minister-President Michael Kretschmer was considered likely to retain his job, as his party remained the largest in the Landtag. Kretschmer ruled out working with AfD or leading a minority government during the campaign. As the CDU also rejects working with The Left, this leaves a so-called "Kenya coalition" as the only viable option: a coalition of the CDU, Greens, and SPD. Such a coalition has governed Saxony-Anhalt since the 2016 state election.[6] Kretschmer and Green leaders Meier and Günther publicly supported exploratory discussions in the week following the election, and the Greens scheduled a party vote on opening negotiations for 12 October.[7]

On 20 December, the coalition between the CDU, Greens, and SPD was approved by the Landtag and sworn into government, with Kretschmer remaining as Minister-President.[2]

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Шаблон:2019 elections in Germany Шаблон:Saxony state elections