Английская Википедия:2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsAZ

Pledged national
convention
delegates
Type Шаблон:Abbr
CD1 5
CD2 6
CD3 5
CD4 3
CD5 5
CD6 5
CD7 4
CD8 5
CD9 6
Шаблон:Abbr 9
At-large 14
Total pledged delegates 67

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three contests on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The closed primary allocated 80 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 67 were pledged delegates allocated according to the results of the primary.

Three major candidates ran in the primary, including former vice president Joe Biden, senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. 12 other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot, along with three minor candidates. Biden won the primary, with almost 44% of the vote and 38 delegates, while Sanders came in second place with almost 33% of the vote and 29 delegates. In a distant third was former mayor Michael Bloomberg, who came close to 10%, even though he had suspended his campaign nearly two weeks before and had issued an official withdrawal with the state, still remaining on the ballot.

Biden won 13 of 15 counties, with the exception of Coconino and Yuma, and 7 of 9 congressional districts.[1] Key to his victory were white voters, whom he won 51-32 per CNN exit polls, and suburban voters, who he won 53–32.[2] In a stark contrast from 2016, Sanders' strength was reliant primarily on non-white and Hispanic voters, whom Biden won by only 47-45 and 45–44, respectively. Biden would ultimately win the state of Arizona in the general election by 10,457 votes, making him the first Democrat to win it since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman did so in 1948.

Procedure

Файл:Bernie Sanders with supporters (49624944848).jpg
Sanders at a rally in Phoenix on March 5, 2020

Arizona was one of three states holding primaries on March 17, 2020, alongside Florida and Illinois, while only one day before Ohio had been the first state to postpone its primary due to the COVID-19 pandemic and cancel in-person voting, accepting ballots until April 28 instead.

Voters had to have registered as Democrats by February 18 to be eligible for voting in the primary. Arizona mailed ballots to voters on the permanent early voting list. Ballots had to be received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered early voting sites, where any voter could walk in and vote in person, Monday to Friday, from February 19 through March 13, 2020.[3][4] Voting took place from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m MST. In the closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 3 and 6 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 9 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large delegates.[5] As a March primary on Stage I of the primary timetable Arizona received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date.[6]

District caucuses were held on April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates. The state convention and state committee meeting were subsequently held on May 16, 2020, to vote on the 14 at-large and 9 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 13 unpledged PLEO delegates: 7 members of the Democratic National Committee and 6 members of Congress (one senator and 5 representatives).[5]

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona. Candidates that had filed a formal withdrawal with the office remained on the ballot because it had already been printed but their votes were not individually published in the final canvass, making them effectively ineligible.[7]

Running Шаблон:Div col

Шаблон:Div col end Withdrawn Шаблон:Div col

Шаблон:Div col end Formal withdrawal (ineligible) Шаблон:Div col

Шаблон:Div col end

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
UndecidedШаблон:Efn
270 to Win Mar 17, 2020 Mar 3–16, 2020 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50.6% 29.4% 1.0% 19.0%
RealClear Politics Mar 17, 2020 Mar 6–15, 2020 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51.7% 33.7% 1.0% 13.6%
FiveThirtyEight Mar 17, 2020 until Mar 16, 2020Шаблон:Efn Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51.6% 26.9% 1.1% 20.4%
Average Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51.3% 30.0% 1.0% 17.7%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn
Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
Swayable Шаблон:Webarchive Mar 16, 2020 1,167 (LV) ± 5.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 53% 29% 19%Шаблон:Efn
Marist/NBC News Mar 10–15, 2020 523 (LV) ± 6.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 53% 36% 8%Шаблон:Efn 3%
913 (RV) ± 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 50% 37% 9%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 373 (LV) ± 5.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 5% 3% 31% 3% 2%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/
Arizona State University
Mar 6–11, 2020 541 (LV) ± 4.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 57%Шаблон:Efn 38%Шаблон:Efn 5%Шаблон:Efn
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 51% 34% 6%Шаблон:Efn 8%
March 4–5, 2020 Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 398 (LV) ± 4.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 45% 12% 17% 13% 4%Шаблон:Efn 9%
March 1–2, 2020 Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
February 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019 260 (LV) ± 6.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 29% 9% 5% 16% 18% 4% 19%Шаблон:Efn
Emerson Polling Oct 25–28, 2019 339 ± 5.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 28% 12% 4% 21% 21% 5% 7%Шаблон:Efn
Siena Research/New York Times Oct 13–26, 2019 209 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 24% 5% 3% 16% 15% 1% 1%Шаблон:Efn 31%
Change Research Sep 27–28, 2019 396 (LV) 15% 13% 4% 19% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 35% 8% 7%Шаблон:Efn
Bendixen&Amandi Sep 9–12, 2019 250 ± 4.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 29% 5% 4% 18% 24% 2% 8%Шаблон:Efn 10%
Zogby Analytics May 23–29, 2019 197 ± 7.0% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic | 35% 6% 4% 16% 10% 0% 11%Шаблон:Efn

Results

<section begin="AZresults" />

Файл:2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results map by county (vote share).svg
Popular vote share by county Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.70 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.70 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)Шаблон:Efn 35,537 5.79 rowspan=11 Шаблон:N/A
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)Шаблон:Efn 24,868 4.05
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.49
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.31
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.11
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04
Henry Hewes 208 0.03
Other candidates 812 0.13
Other votes 4,942 0.81
Ineligible candidatesШаблон:Efn

Шаблон:0Michael Bloomberg
Шаблон:0Amy Klobuchar
Шаблон:0Tom Steyer
Шаблон:0John Delaney
Шаблон:0Cory Booker
Шаблон:0Michael Bennet

71,904

58,797
10,333
1,381
505
494
394

11.72

9.59
1.68
0.23
0.08
0.08
0.06

Total 613,355 100% 67

By county

County[8] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger OthersШаблон:EfnШаблон:Efn Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Apache Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3,092 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.0% 2,523 35.9% 252 3.6% 143 2.0% 48 0.7% 36 0.5% 20 0.3% 25 0.4% 26 0.4% 22 0.3% 13 0.2% 10 0.1% 818 11.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |569 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |8.1% 7,028 28,734 24.5%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Cochise Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |4,123 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |41.7% 2,694 27.3% 678 6.9% 466 4.7% 93 0.9% 34 0.3% 22 0.2% 20 0.2% 26 0.3% 10 0.1% 8 0.1% 4 0.0% 1,710 17.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,429 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |14.4% 9,888 20,356 48.6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Coconino 6,578 37.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7,650 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |43.5% 1,255 7.1% 527 3.0% 94 0.5% 64 0.4% 16 0.1% 23 0.1% 17 0.1% 13 0.1% 9 0.1% 5 0.0% 1,354 7.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |–1,072 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |–6.1% 17,605 35,901 49.0%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Gila Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |2,041 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.8% 928 21.7% 192 4.5% 181 4.2% 37 0.9% 25 0.6% 10 0.2% 24 0.6% 8 0.2% 3 0.0% 11 0.3% 2 0.1% 807 18.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,113 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |26.1% 4,269 8,845 48.3%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Graham Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |774 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |46.2% 420 25.0% 70 4.2% 44 2.6% 17 1.0% 14 0.8% 8 0.5% 5 0.3% 10 0.6% 0 0.0% 2 0.1% 0 0.0% 313 18.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |354 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |21.1% 1,677 5,082 33.0%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Greenlee Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |316 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.0% 138 19.6% 25 3.6% 30 4.3% 14 2.0% 6 0.9% 4 0.6% 1 0.1% 4 0.6% 0 0.0% 3 0.4% 1 0.1% 161 22.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |178 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |25.3% 703 1,756 40.0%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |La Paz Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |323 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.8% 193 26.8% 29 4.0% 21 2.9% 6 0.8% 6 0.8% 5 0.7% 3 0.4% 2 0.3% 1 0.1% 1 0.1% 2 0.3% 129 17.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |130 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |18.0% 721 2,282 31.6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Maricopa Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |153,707 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |42.9% 120,379 33.6% 20,584 5.7% 15,346 4.3% 1,620 0.4% 1,109 0.3% 345 0.1% 307 0.1% 297 0.1% 121 0.0% 99 0.0% 92 0.0% 44,384 12.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |33,328 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |9.3% 358,390 732,376 48.9%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Mohave Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |4,450 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.4% 2,142 22.8% 432 4.6% 493 5.3% 64 0.7% 38 0.4% 7 0.1% 18 0.2% 16 0.2% 7 0.1% 7 0.1% 5 0.4% 1,701 18.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |2,308 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |24.6% 9,380 20,872 44.9%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Navajo Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3,585 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.3% 2,617 32.8% 316 3.9% 193 2.4% 54 0.7% 59 0.7% 14 0.2% 25 0.3% 18 0.2% 11 0.1% 14 0.2% 10 0.1% 1,169 14.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |968 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |12.0% 8,085 25,215 32.1%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Pima Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |60,622 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.3% 42,954 32.1% 8,602 6.4% 4,907 3.7% 613 0.5% 306 0.2% 149 0.1% 105 0.1% 88 0.1% 32 0.0% 20 0.0% 33 0.0% 15,378 11.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17,668 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |13.2% 133,809 237,568 56.3%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Pinal Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |12,450 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |48.4% 6,658 25.9% 1,165 4.5% 1,030 4.0% 148 0.6% 106 0.4% 39 0.2% 33 0.1% 45 0.2% 6 0.0% 12 0.1% 3 0.0% 4,032 15.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |5,792 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |22.5% 25,727 60,034 42.9%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Santa Cruz Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,876 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.6% 1,547 33.5% 194 4.2% 131 2.8% 15 0.3% 18 0.4% 22 0.5% 12 0.3% 25 0.5% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 0.1% 775 16.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |329 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7.1% 4,623 13,552 34.1%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Yavapai Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |10,317 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.9% 5,717 26.5% 1,355 6.3% 1,015 4.7% 129 0.6% 56 0.3% 5 0.0% 42 0.2% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 2,891 13.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |4,600 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |21.4% 21,543 31,856 67.6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Yuma 3,775 38.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3,896 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |39.3% 388 3.9% 341 3.4% 62 0.6% 44 0.4% 88 0.9% 25 0.3% 41 0.4% 11 0.1% 4 0.0% 8 0.1% 1,224 12.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |–121 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |–1.2% 9,907 31,914 31.0%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

By congressional district

Congressional district[8] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger OthersШаблон:EfnШаблон:Efn Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1st Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |32,749 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.8% 22,336 31.2% 3,776 5.3% 2,472 3.5% 432 0.6% 302 0.4% 107 0.2% 119 0.2% 117 0.2% 53 0.1% 55 0.1% 33 0.1% 8,954 12.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |10,413 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |14.6% 71,505 167,908 42.6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |2nd Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |43,970 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |45.9% 28,927 30.2% 6,741 7.0% 3,814 4.0% 479 0.5% 240 0.3% 82 0.1% 88 0.1% 72 0.1% 30 0.0% 19 0.0% 18 0.0% 11,238 11.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |15,043 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |15.7% 95,718 160,428 59.7%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |3rd 23,744 38.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |24,766 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.4% 2,724 4.4% 1,595 2.6% 292 0.5% 180 0.3% 222 0.4% 72 0.1% 115 0.2% 34 0.1% 17 0.0% 31 0.1% 7,505 12.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |−1,022 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |−1.7% 61,297 158,635 38.6%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |4th Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |22,338 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.4% 11,925 25.3% 2,550 5.4% 2,298 4.9% 293 0.6% 164 0.4% 42 0.1% 100 0.2% 61 0.1% 20 0.0% 31 0.1% 15 0.0% 7,291 15.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |10,413 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |22.1% 47,128 90,296 52.2%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |5th Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |27,851 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.3% 19,636 31.3% 3,721 5.9% 3,020 4.8% 302 0.5% 210 0.3% 36 0.1% 58 0.1% 35 0.1% 8 0.0% 13 0.0% 13 0.0% 7,920 12.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |8,215 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |13.1% 62,823 121,006 51.9%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |6th Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |34,295 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |47.4% 19,878 27.5% 4,240 5.9% 3,570 4.9% 347 0.5% 156 0.2% 33 0.1% 57 0.1% 34 0.1% 20 0.0% 15 0.0% 10 0.0% 9,676 13.4% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |14,417 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |19.9% 72,331 129,893 55.7%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |7th 19,789 35.6% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |24,701 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44.4% 2,676 4.8% 1,572 2.8% 182 0.3% 191 0.3% 124 0.2% 42 0.1% 77 0.1% 27 0.1% 11 0.0% 23 0.0% 6,202 11.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |−4,912 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |−8.8% 55,617 148,509 37.5%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |8th Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |30,594 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |46.8% 17,537 26.8% 3,420 5.2% 3,098 4.7% 334 0.5% 206 0.3% 59 0.1% 74 0.1% 59 0.1% 22 0.0% 28 0.0% 21 0.0% 9,985 15.3% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |13,057 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |20.0% 65,437 123,996 52.8%
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |9th Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |32,699 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |40.1% 30,750 37.7% 5,689 7.0% 3,429 4.2% 353 0.4% 272 0.3% 49 0.1% 58 0.1% 58 0.1% 28 0.0% 19 0.0% 20 0.0% 8,075 9.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |1,949 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |2.4% 81,499 155,672 52.4%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

Analysis

Arizona was a hotly contested state throughout both the primary and general election seasons due to its rapidly diversifying electorate. A high concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters as well as an intense swing to the left in suburban areas and the Republican Party having moved to the right, strengthened Democratic support while drawing new divides in the Democratic Party.[10] In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a 14.9% margin;[11] despite Sanders being trailing Biden significantly nationwide, he actually improved on his performance in Arizona in 2020, losing it by an 11.0% margin.[8] This improvement was mostly attributable to improvements among Hispanic and Latino voters: Sanders performed well among that demographic throughout the primary as opposed to 2016, when Clinton handily carried regions with high densities of Hispanic voters.[12] Per CNN exit polls,[2] Biden won Hispanic voters 45-44 compared to white voters, who he won 51–32. Sanders won Yuma County, where 64.6% of the population are Hispanic or Latino, as well as Arizona's 3rd and 7th congressional districts; the former, home to Tucson, Yuma, and most of the southern border, is 65.1% Hispanic,[13] while the latter, composing much of inner Phoenix, is 64.0% Hispanic.[14] Nonetheless, Biden's performance represented a significant improvement among voters of these demographics from earlier in the primary,[12] which was compounded by a strong performance in the state's suburbs. He won Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population, by 33,328 votes,[8] largely due to the Phoenix suburbs, which have been reliably Republican since the 1950s but have recently shifted to the left.[10] He also won Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by 17,668 votes.[8]

The results of the primary would be reflected in the general election: Biden would end up winning Arizona by 10,457 votes, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He would also become the first to win crucial Maricopa County since Truman. His performance in predominantly-Hispanic areas in urban areas and along the southern border would also decline compared to 2016, though would be supplemented by a raw increase in voter turnout.[15]

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:2020 Democratic primaries