Английская Википедия:2020 Eden-Monaro by-election

Содержание

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

Текст

The 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election was held on 4 July 2020 to elect the next Member of the Australian Parliament for the division of Eden-Monaro in the House of Representatives. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Mike Kelly. Kelly resigned on 30 April 2020, citing ill health.

The poll occurred amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and was the first by-election of the 46th Parliament of Australia. On the morning after the by-election, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor candidate Kristy McBain.

Background

Шаблон:See also The electorate of Eden-Monaro has long been regarded as a bellwether seat. From the 1972 federal election to the 2013 federal election, the seat was won by a member of the same political party that also formed government following the election. At the 2016 election, the seat was won by Mike Kelly, who defeated incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy. Kelly, a veteran of the Australian Army, had previously represented the electorate in the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013, and retained his seat at the 2019 election despite a 2% swing against him. At the time, Eden-Monaro was Labor's fourth-most marginal seat, held by a margin of only 0.85%.

Two-party-preferred vote in Eden-Monaro, 1996–2019

Election		1996	1998	2001	2004	2007	2010	2013	2016	2019
width=1pt Шаблон:Australian party style|	Labor	45.24%	49.82%	48.31%	47.86%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|53.40%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|54.24%	49.39%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|52.93%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|50.85%
width=1pt Шаблон:Australian party style|	Liberal	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|54.76%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|50.18%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|51.69%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|52.14%	46.60%	45.76%	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|50.61%	47.07%	49.15%
Government		Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|ALP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Labor|ALP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP	Шаблон:Australian party shading/Liberal|LNP

Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party Scott Morrison confirmed that the party would contest a by-election in Eden-Monaro were it to occur. Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party Michael McCormack also declared his party would contest the by-election.

After speculation that he would retire from politics, Kelly announced his resignation on 30 April, citing personal health issues relating to his time in the Australian Army.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:

• Thursday, 28 May 2020 – Issue of writ
• Thursday, 4 June 2020 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
• Tuesday, 9 June 2020 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
• Wednesday, 10 June 2020 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
• Monday, 15 June 2020 – Start of early voting
• Saturday, 4 July 2020 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
• Friday, 17 July 2020 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
• Monday, 20 July 2020 – Declaration of result
• Saturday, 5 September 2020 – Last day for return of writs

Preselection

Labor

Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, nominated for Labor preselection on 1 May 2020. Anthony Albanese, the federal Labor leader, endorsed McBain as his preferred candidate later that day. On 4 May, McBain was preselected as Labor's candidate, against Yass Valley branch president Michael Pilbrow.

Liberal

On 5 May, Andrew Constance, New South Wales Minister for Transport and Roads and state MP for Bega confirmed that he would seek Liberal Party preselection, before announcing the following day he would not run for the seat. Jerry Nockles, a former Navy seaman, and Pru Gordon, the general manager for economics and trade at the National Farmers' Federation, were also named as potential candidates.

Preselection for the Liberal Party was held on 22–23 May, and was contested by two candidates:

• Fiona Kotvojs, the Liberal Party candidate for Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election, and
• Mark Schweikert, a Queanbeyan–Palerang councillor and director in the Department of Defence.

Following the preselection, Kotvojs was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate.

Nationals

John Barilaro, the Deputy Premier of New South Wales and state MP for Monaro, had publicly expressed interest in running for Nationals preselection, though on 4 May he announced that he would not stand for the seat.

Preselection for the National Party was held on 6 June, and was contested by four candidates:

• Fleur Flanery, organiser of the Australian Landscape Conference,
• Michael Green, farmer and chair of the NSW Farmers Association (Cooma branch),
• Mareeta Grundy, former candidate for Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council, and
• Trevor Hicks, former Deputy Mayor of Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council.

Following the preselection, Hicks was endorsed as the National Party candidate.

Candidates

Candidates (14) in ballot paper order
Party		Candidate	Background
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Шаблон:Nowrap	Matthew Stadtmiller	Hilltops councillor. Contested Cootamundra at 2017 state by-election and 2019 state election.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Science	James Jansson	Software developer, epidemiologist and party founder. Contested Kingsford Smith at the 2019 federal election.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	HEMP	Michael Balderstone	Party leader and perennial candidate. Cannabis legalisation activist and president of the Nimbin Hemp Embassy.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Independent	James Holgate	Recruitment consultant.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	National	Trevor Hicks	Former Queanbeyan–Palerang deputy mayor.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Liberal Democrats	Dean McCrae	Chef and party branch coordinator. Contested Goulburn and Lyne at the 2019 state and federal elections, respectively.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Sustainable Australia	Joy Angel	Office manager. Contested ACT Senate seat at the 2019 federal election.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Labor	Kristy McBain	Mayor of Bega Valley Shire.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Independent	Riccardo Bosi	Businessman, veteran and founder of unregistered Australia One party.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Independent	Karen Porter	Small business owner, member of unregistered New Liberals party.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Greens	Cathy Griff	Bega Valley Shire councillor.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Christian Democrats	Narelle Storey	Carer, founder of not-for-profit platform ReStore Australia. Contested Werriwa at the 2019 federal election.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Australian Federation	Jason Potter	Business consultant.
width="3pt" Шаблон:Australian party style|	Liberal	Fiona Kotvojs	Former teacher, scientist and small business operator. Contested Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election.

Opinion polling

Eden-Monaro by-election polling

Date	Firm	Commissioned by	Sample	Primary vote							TPP vote
				ALP	LIB	GRN	NAT	SFF	OTH		ALP	LIB	NAT
30 June 2020	uComms	Australia Institute	643	38.1%	37.5%	7.3%	5.0%	4.2%	7.9%		52%	48%	–
16 June 2020	uComms	Australian Forest Products Association	816	–	–	6.3%	6.7%	3.6%	–		52%	48%	–
15 June 2020	uComms	Australia Institute	643	36.5%	29.9%	8.1%	6.1%	6.5%	12.9%		53%	47%	–
Шаблон:Circa 12 June 2020	Internal polling	Unconfirmed	600	31%	38%	6%	6%	5%	14%Шаблон:Ref		–	–	–
12 May 2020	uComms	Australia Institute	978	39.8%	34.3%	6.7%	7.3%	–	11.9%Шаблон:Ref		51.1%	48.9%	–
1 May 2020	Internal polling	National Party	1296	35%	21%	8%	30%	–	6%		48%	–	52%
30 April 2020				Mike Kelly announces retirement
18 May 2019 election				39.2%	37.0%	8.8%	7.0%	–	8.1%		50.8%	49.2%	–

Notes

1. Шаблон:Note3% One Nation, 11% others/undecided

2. Шаблон:Note6.5% One Nation, 5.4% others/undecided

Results

|- | Шаблон:Australian party style |   | style="text-align:left;"| Independent New Liberals | style="text-align:left;"| Karen Porter | style="text-align:right;"| 1,218 | style="text-align:right;"| 1.28 | style="text-align:right;"| +1.28 |-

Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party |- | Шаблон:Australian party style |   | style="text-align:left;"| Independent Australia One | style="text-align:left;"| Riccardo Bosi | style="text-align:right;"| 513 | style="text-align:right;"| 0.54 | style="text-align:right;"| +0.54 |- Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box formal Шаблон:Election box informal Шаблон:Election box turnout Шаблон:Election box 2pp Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box candidate AU party Шаблон:Election box hold AU party Шаблон:Election box end

Файл:Eden-Monaro by-election 2020 preference flows.png

Diagram of preference flows at the Eden-Monaro by-election

See also

• List of Australian federal by-elections

External links

• Eden-Monaro by-election – ABC Elections
• Eden-Monaro by-election – Australian Electoral Commission
• Eden-Monaro by-election – The Tally Room