Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Colorado
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Distinguish Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Colorado The 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent senator Cory Gardner lost re-election to former governor John Hickenlooper.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.[4]
This race was one of two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump lost in 2020; the other was in Maine. Many pollsters and pundits[5][6] considered Gardner to be the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election in 2020 due to his narrow victory in 2014, the state's leftward shift, and Trump's unpopularity in the state. As predicted, Hickenlooper easily defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin. However, Gardner did manage to outperform Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by roughly four points.[7] This became the first election Gardner had lost in his political career.[8] This is also the second consecutive election in which the incumbent senator lost re-election to a second term for this particular seat. At the age of 68, Hickenlooper is the oldest first term senator from Colorado.
Background
Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump.[9] Polling showed that more voters had a negative view of Gardner compared to a positive one.[10] Gardner also faced a four year grassroots campaign across the state by progressive political activists to hold him accountable for his votes, featured a cardboard cutout dubbed "Cardboard Cory".[11] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a consistent double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[12][13]
Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[14]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Cory Gardner, incumbent U.S. senator[15]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Hickenlooper, former governor of Colorado and former candidate for President of the United States in 2020[20]
Eliminated in primary
- Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, and nominee for Colorado's 6th congressional district in 2014[21][22]
Withdrawn
- Dan Baer, former executive director of the Colorado Department of Higher Education and former United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe[23] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Derrick Blanton[24]
- Marcos Boyington, software engineer[25]
- Diana Bray, psychologist and climate activist[26](endorsed Andrew Romanoff)[27]
- Denise Burgess, businesswoman and Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce board member[28]
- Ellen Burnes, Colorado State University professor and former chair of the Boulder County Democratic Party[29]
- Lorena Garcia, community organizerШаблон:Efn[30]
- David Goldfischer, associate professor at the Korbel School for International Studies at the University of Denver and national security advisor[31]
- Mike Johnston, former state senator and candidate for Governor of Colorado in 2018[32]
- Danielle Kombo, medical recruiter and businesswoman[33](endorsed Stephany Rose Spaulding)
- Dustin Leitzel, pharmacist[34][35]
- Alice Madden, former majority leader of the Colorado House of Representatives[36]
- Christopher Hawkins Critter Milton, 2020 Unity Party nominee for Colorado's 3rd congressional district[37]
- Keith Pottratz, technician and veteran[38](endorsed Lorena Garcia)
- Stephany Rose Spaulding, professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs and nominee for Colorado's 5th congressional district in 2018[39] (endorsed Lorena Garcia)[40]
- Erik Underwood, entrepreneur and candidate for Governor of Colorado in 2018[41]
- John F. Walsh, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Colorado[42](endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Michelle Ferrigno Warren, nonprofit leader, immigration advocate, first time candidateШаблон:Efn[43]
- Angela Williams, state senator (ran for re-election)[44]
- Trish Zornio, biomedical scientist[21][45] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
Declined
- Diana DeGette, incumbent U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)[46]
- Crisanta Duran, former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for Colorado's 1st congressional district,[47] then withdrew)
- Jena Griswold, Colorado Secretary of State[48]
- Cary Kennedy, former Colorado State Treasurer[49]
- Joe Neguse, incumbent U.S. representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district (ran for re-election)[21][50][51][52]
- Ed Perlmutter, incumbent U.S. representative for Colorado's 7th congressional district[25] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Joe Salazar, former state representative[49]
- Kerry Donovan, state senator[53] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jena Griswold |
John Hickenlooper |
Mike Johnston |
Andrew Romanoff |
Other / Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | June 19–24, 2020 | 575 (LV) | ± 6.0% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58% | – | 28% | 15%Шаблон:Efn | |
| Myers Research and Strategic ServicesШаблон:Efn-ua | June 16–17, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | – | 39% | – | |
| Unspecified polling firmШаблон:Efn-ua | October 2019 | – (LV)Шаблон:Efn | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|68% | – | 19% | – | |
| Johnston withdraws from the race | |||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 60%Шаблон:Efn | 3% | 9% | 27%Шаблон:Efn | |
| –Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|66% | – | 17% | 17%Шаблон:Efn | |||||
| Hickenlooper announces his candidacy | |||||||||
| Griswold announces that she will not run | |||||||||
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | July 25–28, 2019 | 600 (LV) | – | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 61% | 10% | 8% | 15%Шаблон:Efn | |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 12–14, 2019 | 561 (LV) | – | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 44% | 3% | 12% | 38%Шаблон:Efn | |
- with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Dan Baer |
John Hickenlooper |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|72% | 17% |
- with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
John Hickenlooper |
Mike Johnston |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|69% | 14% | 18% |
- with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
John Hickenlooper |
Alice Madden |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|69% | 14% | 17% |
- with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
John Hickenlooper |
Angela Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|70% | 11% | 18% |
Caucus
On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[54][55]
Caucus results
Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[56]
The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[57]
| Candidate | Total Raw Votes | Percentage of Vote Won (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Romanoff | 8,629 | 54.98 |
| John Hickenlooper | 4,761 | 30.34 |
| Trish Zornio | 976 | 6.21 |
| Stephany Rose Spaulding | 771 | 4.91 |
| Uncommitted | 520 | 3.31 |
| Erik Underwood | 35 | 0.22 |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Other candidates
Libertarian primary
Nominee
- Raymon Doane, Libertarian nominee for Colorado's 1st congressional district in 2018[58]
Eliminated in primary
- Gaylon Kent, author and perennial candidate[59]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Unity Party
Nominee
- Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[60]
Eliminated at Unity Party convention
- Joshua Rodriguez[61]
Withdrawn
Write-in candidates
Declared
- Dan Doyle (Approval Voting Party)[63]
- Michael Sanchez (independent)[63]
- Danny Skelly, small business owner (independent)[63]
- Bruce Lohmiller (Green Party)[63]
- Theodore Rockwell, Steamboat Springs (independent)[63]
Withdrawn
- Veronique Bellamy, former candidate for RTD board (Socialist Party)[60][64][65]
- Joseph "Joey" Camp, performance artist (independent)[66][60][63]
- Lisa Garcia (independent)[67][63]
- Christopher K. Springer (independent)[68][63]
- Donald George Willoughby (independent)[68][63]
- Marti Wolf (independent)[68][63]
General election
Debate
| Host | Date & Time | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John
Hickenlooper |
Cory Gardner | |||
| Colorado State University | October 13, 2020 6:00pm MDT |
[69] | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[70] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[71] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[73] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[74] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[75] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[76] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[77] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[78] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
Graphical Summary
Poll Results
- with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Cory Gardner (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | 14% |
| Global Strategy Group | January 31 – February 4, 2019 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 9% |
| DFM Research Шаблон:Webarchive | January 2–5, 2019 | 550 (A) | ± 4.2% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 46% | 16% |
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | December 2–4, 2018 | 540 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | August 2–3, 2017 | 628 (V) | ± 3.8% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 46% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 870 (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 53% | 8% |
- on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Other|50% | 19%Шаблон:Efn |
- with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/University of Colorado | October 5–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.64% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% | 14%Шаблон:Efn |
| Climate Nexus | February 15–19, 2020 | 485 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 12%Шаблон:Efn |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 14%Шаблон:Efn |
- with Mike Johnston
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Cory Gardner (R) |
Mike Johnston (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 50% | – | 11% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 45% | 39% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
Results
The election was not particularly close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson, the latter of which had been pivotal to Gardner's victory in 2014.Шаблон:Cn Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%.
Hickenlooper is the first senator from Colorado who was also the Governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936. Hickenlooper was sworn in as Senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box gain with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chaffee (largest municipality: Salida)
- Larimer (largest municipality: Fort Collins)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Alamosa (largest municipality: Alamosa)
- Huerfano (largest municipality: Walsenburg)
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Voter samples
References
Further reading
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Raymon Doane (L) for Senate
- Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans (U) for Senate
- Cory Gardner (R) for Senate
- John Hickenlooper (D) for Senate
- Danny Skelly (I write-in) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:Colorado elections
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