Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Kansas
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.[3][4]
Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district[5]
Eliminated in primary
- Kris Kobach, former secretary of state of Kansas and Republican nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2018[6]
- Bob Hamilton, businessman[7]
- Lance Berland[8]
- John L. Berman, engineer[8][9]
- Derek Ellis, quality assurance technician[8][10]
- Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2002[11]
- Brian Matlock, economics graduate student[12]
- John Miller[8]
- Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education[13]
- Gabriel Mark Robles[8]
Withdrawn
- Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2)[14]
- Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator[15]
- Susan Wagle, President of the Kansas Senate[16][17]
Declined
- Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce[18]
- Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas and lieutenant governor of Kansas[19][20][21][22][23] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[24]
- Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer[25] (running for reelection)
- Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2018[19][20][21]
- Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission[26]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district[27][28][29][30]
- Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. senator[1] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[31][32]
- Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs[19][33]
- Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General[34]
- Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State[35][36]
Primary debate
In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[37]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton |
Kris Kobach |
Dave Lindstrom |
Roger Marshall |
Susan Wagle |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 419 (LV) | – | 15% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|35% | 4% | 26% | – | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 16% |
| Wagle withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 6% | 26% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | 7% | – | 24% |
| Hamilton announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 12–16, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 5% | 23% | 8% | – | 21% |
| co/efficient (R) | January 19–20, 2020 | 1,246 LV | ± 3.2% | – | 29% | – | 29% | 6% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 28% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 3% | 24% | 8% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 16% |
- with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% |
- with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton | Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 10–12, 2020 | 600 (V) | ± 4% | 10% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% |
- with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach | Roger Marshall | Mike Pompeo | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRSCШаблон:Efn-ua | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 17% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
- with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach | Mike Pompeo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRSCШаблон:Efn-ua | October 21–23, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 24% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|68% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator[38]
Eliminated in primary
- Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate[39][8]
Withdrawn
- Elliot Adams, database developer[40]
- Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district (endorsed Bollier)[18][41]
- Corbie Crow, certified public accountant[42]
- Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)[43]
- Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan[44][45]
- Adam Smith[39][46][8]
Declined
- Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives, nominee for governor in 2014 and KS-02 in 2018[25]
- Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner[47]
- Sarah Smarsh, author[48]
- Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018[49]
- Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018[50]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran[51]
Independents
Withdrawn
General election
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[52] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[53] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[55] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[56] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[57] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[58] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[59] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[60] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Roger Marshall (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Jason Buckley (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data For Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 45% | 4% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| VCreek/AMG | October 25–27, 2020 | 1,149 (LV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 43% | 2% | – | 8% |
| GBAO Strategies (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:EfnШаблон:Efn-ua | October 25–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 45%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 4% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| 47%Шаблон:Efn | 47% | – | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 19–20, 2020 | 897 (V) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 5% | – | 9% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 18–20, 2020 | 755 (LV) | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 42% | 4% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 6%Шаблон:Efn |
| co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 18–20, 2020 | 2,453 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 39% | 2% | – | 8% |
| VCreek/AMG (R) | September 29–30, 2020 | 3,104 (LV) | ± 1.75% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 2% | – | 11% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | September 26–29, 2020 | 677 (LV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 43% | – | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| GBAO Strategies (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 7% | – | – |
| Data For Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40%Шаблон:Efn | 40% | 5% | – | 15% |
| 42%Шаблон:Efn | 42% | – | – | 15% | ||||
| co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 39% | 2% | – | 16% |
| SurveyUSA | August 8–9, 2020 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 44% | – | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 5–6, 2020 | 864 (V) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 42% | – | – | 15% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 41% | – | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| NMB Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 35% | – | – | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 10–11, 2020 | 1,567 (V) | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 37% | – | – | – |
- Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Bob Hamilton (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|41% | 11%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
- Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Kris Kobach (R) |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 30 – June 1, 2020 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42% | 11%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
| NMB Research/NRSC (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 17–19, 2020 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 43% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 44% | – | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 12–13, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 38% | – | 15% |
| DFM Research Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | 4% | 10% |
- Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Kris Kobach (R) |
Barry Grissom (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 9–11, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | – |
- Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Generic Republican (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PACШаблон:Efn-ua | September 15–16, 2020 | 794 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 39% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | April 13–14, 2020 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% | 40% | 11% |
| DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | January 30 – February 6, 2020 | 600 (A) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% | 31% | 30% |
| Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 9–11, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 36% | – |
Results
On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.[61]
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic
- Douglas (Largest city: Lawrence)
- Shawnee (Largest city: Topeka)
- Wyandotte (Largest city: Kansas City)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Johnson (Largest city: Overland Park)
- Riley (Largest city: Manhattan)
Notes
- Partisan clients
See also
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
- Barbara Bollier (D) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Jason Buckley (L) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Roger Marshall (R) for Senate
Шаблон:2020 United States elections
- ↑ 1,0 1,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,3 8,4 8,5 8,6 8,7 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Steve Roberts files for U.S. Senate to replace Pat Roberts, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 18,0 18,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 19,0 19,1 19,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 20,0 20,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 21,0 21,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ 25,0 25,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 37,0 37,1 37,2 37,3 37,4 37,5 Five GOP candidates for U.S. Senate spar on electability, threat of Democrat victory, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, May 23, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 39,0 39,1 39,2 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносокBoydaBollierне указан текст - ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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