Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.^[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.^[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate Majority Leader^[3]^[4]

Eliminated in primary

Nicholas Alsager^[5]
Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor^[5] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)^[6]
Louis Grider, truck driver^[5]
Neren James^[5]
Kenneth Lowndes^[5]
Wesley Morgan, former state representative^[7]

Withdrawn

Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur^[5]^[8] (remained on ballot)
Karl Das^[9]^[8]

Results

Файл:Kentucky U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018^[10]^[11]

Eliminated in primary

Файл:Charles solar panels (cropped).jpg

Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary.

Charles Booker, state representative^[12]^[13]
Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine^[14]
Maggie Joe Hilliard^[5]
Andrew Maynard^[5]
Eric Rothmuller, small business owner^[15]
John R. Sharpensteen^[5]
Bennie J. Smith, local business owner^[16]
Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky^[17]

Withdrawn

Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor^[18] (endorsed Mike Broihier)^[19] (remained on ballot)
Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician^[20] (endorsed Charles Booker)^[21]
Joshua Paul Edwards^[22]^[8]
Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University^[9]^[8]
Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble^[23]^[8]

Declined

Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019^[24]
Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear^[25]^[26]^[27]
Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996^[25]
Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015^[25]
Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019^[25]
Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville^[28]
Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[29]
Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[25] (endorsed Booker)
Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)^[30]^[31]

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020^[32]^[33] and June 1, 2020.^[34]^[35]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Charles Booker	Amy McGrath	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 10–22, 2020	556 (LV)	–	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|46%	–	10%
Garin-Hart-Yang Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 16–18, 2020	–	–	32%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|42%	–	–
Civiqs/Data for Progress	June 13–15, 2020	421 (LV)	± 5.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|44%	36%	9%Шаблон:Efn	11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 8–12, 2020	313 (RV)	± 7.0%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	6%Шаблон:Efn	3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 2020	–Шаблон:Efn	–	13%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|62%	–	–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 2020	–Шаблон:Efn	–	11%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|62%	–	–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 2020	–Шаблон:Efn	–	7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|65%	–	–

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Results

Файл:Kentucky U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend Шаблон:Legend

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.^[36]^[37] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.^[38]

Nominee

Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur^[39]

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Derek Leonard Petteys^[40]^[8]

Independents

Declared

Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)^[6]
Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)^[6]

Withdrawn

Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65^[41]^[8]

General election

Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks.^[42]

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[43]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections^[44]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[45]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[46]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 30, 2020
Politico^[47]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2020
RCP^[48]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[49]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 3, 2020
538^[50]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2020
Economist^[51]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Amy McGrath (D)	Brad Barron (L)	Other / Undecided
Swayable Шаблон:Webarchive	October 23 – November 1, 2020	365 (LV)	± 7.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|49%	46%	5%	–
Morning Consult	October 22–31, 2020	911 (LV)	± 3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|51%	40%	–	–
Bluegrass Community & Technical College Шаблон:Webarchive	October 12–28, 2020	250 (RV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|50%	40%	–	10%Шаблон:Efn
Cygnal	October 19–20, 2020	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|50%	40%	5%	5%Шаблон:Efn
Mason-Dixon	October 12–15, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|51%	42%	4%	3%Шаблон:Efn
Morning Consult	September 11–20, 2020	746 (LV)	± (2% – 7%)	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|52%	37%	–	–
Data for Progress (D)	September 14–19, 2020	807 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|46%Шаблон:Efn	39%	3%	12%Шаблон:Efn
Data for Progress (D)	September 14–19, 2020	807 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|48%Шаблон:Efn	41%	–	11%Шаблон:Efn
Quinnipiac University	September 10–14, 2020	1,164 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|53%	41%	–	5%Шаблон:Efn
Quinnipiac University	July 30 – August 3, 2020	909 (RV)	± 3.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|49%	44%	–	7%Шаблон:Efn
Bluegrass Data (D) Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 25–29, 2020	3,020 (RV)	± 2.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|49%	46%	4%	–
Morning Consult	July 24 – August 2, 2020	793 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|53%	36%	–	12%Шаблон:Efn
Spry Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 11–16, 2020	600 (LV)	± 3.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|55%	33%	–	12%Шаблон:Efn
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 7–12, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|45%	41%	7%	7%Шаблон:Efn
Civiqs/Data for Progress	June 13–15, 2020	898 (RV)	± 3.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|53%	33%	4%	11%Шаблон:Efn
RMG Research Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 21–24, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|41%	–	19%Шаблон:Efn
Bluegrass Data (D) Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 7–12, 2020Шаблон:Efn	4,000 (RV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|40%	38%	7%	–
Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 17–21, 2020	1,281 (LV)	± 2.8%	41%	41%	–	18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 8–13, 2020	802 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\| 43%	40%	–	17%
Fabrizio Ward Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\| 47%	46%	–	6%
Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 15–16, 2019	1,629 (LV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|47%	45%	–	8%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

with Charles Booker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Charles Booker (D)	Other / Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress	June 13–15, 2020	898 (RV)	± 3.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|52%	38%	9%Шаблон:Efn

with Jim Gray

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Jim Gray (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	June 11–12, 2019	741 (LV)	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\| 49%	41%	10%

with Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Generic Democrat	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 14–15, 2020	1,104 (V)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|47%	44%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D) Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	Feb 11–12, 2019	748 (RV)	± 3.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\| 45%	42%	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	Aug 15–16, 2017	645 (V)	–	37%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 44%	19%

on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Yes	No	Other / Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other\|62%	8%Шаблон:Efn
Public Policy Polling (D) Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	Feb 11–12, 2019	748 (RV)	± 3.6%	32%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other\|61%	8%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Other / Undecided
Cygnal	October 19–20, 2020	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|55%	39%	6%Шаблон:Efn
Quinnipiac University	September 10–14, 2020	1,164 (LV)	± 2.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|54%	38%	8%Шаблон:Efn
Fabrizio Ward/AARP	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\| 48%	42%	13%Шаблон:Efn

Шаблон:Hidden end

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.^[52] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea since,—"at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."^[53]^[54]

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville)
Elliott (largest municipality: Sandy Hook)
Marion (largest municipality: Lebanon)
Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg)
Nicholas (largest municipality: Carlisle)
Rowan (largest municipality: Morehead)
Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton)

Notes

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

Voter samples

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Citation
Шаблон:Citation
Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Шаблон:Ballotpedia

campaign websites

Шаблон:2020 United States elections

[1] Шаблон:Cite web

[2] Шаблон:Cite web

[3] Шаблон:Cite news

[4] Шаблон:Cite news

[wdrb-5] 5,0 ^5,1 ^5,2 ^5,3 ^5,4 ^5,5 ^5,6 ^5,7 ^5,8 Шаблон:Cite web

[generalelectionlist-6] 6,0 ^6,1 ^6,2 ^6,3 ^6,4 ^6,5 Шаблон:Cite web

[Morgan-7] Шаблон:Cite news

[secofstate-8] 8,0 ^8,1 ^8,2 ^8,3 ^8,4 ^8,5 ^8,6 Шаблон:Cite web

[daselliott-9] 9,0 ^9,1 Шаблон:Cite news

[10] Шаблон:Cite news

[11] Шаблон:Cite web

[12] Шаблон:Cite news

[13] Шаблон:Cite web

[14] Шаблон:Cite web

[15] Шаблон:Cite web

[16] Шаблон:Cite web

[17] Шаблон:Cite web

[18] Шаблон:Cite web

[19] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[20] Шаблон:Cite web

[21] Шаблон:Cite tweet

[22] Шаблон:Cite web

[23] Шаблон:Cite web

[24] Шаблон:Cite web

[tds-25] 25,0 ^25,1 ^25,2 ^25,3 ^25,4 Шаблон:Cite news

[26] Шаблон:Cite web

[27] Шаблон:Cite news

[28] Шаблон:Cite news

[Wishlist-29] Шаблон:Cite web

[30] Шаблон:Cite web

[31] Шаблон:Cite news

[cj-deb-32] Шаблон:Cite news

[wfpi-33] Шаблон:Cite news

[wsun-34] Шаблон:Cite news

[ket-deb-35] Шаблон:Cite news

[36] Шаблон:Cite web

[37] Шаблон:Cite web

[38] Шаблон:Cite web

[39] Шаблон:Cite web

[40] Шаблон:Cite web

[opensecrets-41] Шаблон:Cite news

[42] Шаблон:Citation

[Cook_PR-43] Шаблон:Cite web

[Inside_Elections-44] Шаблон:Cite web

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-45] Шаблон:Cite web

[Daily_Kos-46] Шаблон:Cite web

[Politico-47] Шаблон:Cite web

[RCP-48] Шаблон:Cite web

[DDHQ-49] Шаблон:Cite web

[50] Шаблон:Cite web

[51] Шаблон:Cite web

[52] Шаблон:Cite news

[53] Шаблон:Cite news

[54] Шаблон:Cite news

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Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

Polling

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

Nominee

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

References

External links

Навигация

Поиск