Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in Montana
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Distinguish Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox electionШаблон:Elections in Montana
The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.[1]
Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.[2] However, Gov. Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.[3] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.[4] Democrats outspent Republicans, $82 million to $63 million, on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.[5] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10-point margin.[6]
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[7] This election was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator from Montana was re-elected to this seat.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator[8]
Eliminated in primary
- John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979)[9]
- Daniel Larson, hardware store manager[8]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[1]
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for President of the United States in 2020[3][10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[12]
Withdrawn
- Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[13]
- Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[14]
- Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[15] (remained on ballot)
- Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[16] (endorsed Bullock)[17]
- Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[18]
Declined
- Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization[19][20]
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana[21]
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)[22]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[23][24] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[25]
Withdrawn
- Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014[26]
- Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party[27][23][28]
Green Party
Disqualified
- Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services[9][29][30]
Eliminated in primary
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Debate
Host | Date & Time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steve Daines (R) | Steve Bullock (D) | |||
Montana Broadcasters Association | August 8, 2020 9:30pm MDT |
[32] | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Montana Television Network | October 10, 2020 5:47pm MDT |
[33] | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[37] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[38] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
538[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Polling
- Graphical summary
Aggregate polls Шаблон:Use mdy dates
Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Bullock | Steve Daines | Other/UndecidedШаблон:Efn | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | October 5–24, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 46.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.8% | 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:HsDaines + 2.4 |
270 to Win | October 19, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 47.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.0% | 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:HsDaines + 0.8 |
Шаблон:Hidden begin University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
- Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Democratic candidates |
Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53%Шаблон:Efn | 47% |
- Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Democratic candidates |
Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 36%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|64% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Gallatin (largest municipality: Bozeman)
- Lewis and Clark (largest municipality: Helena)
- Roosevelt (largest municipality: Wolf Point)
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2020 United States elections
- ↑ 1,0 1,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 8,0 8,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 9,0 9,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 23,0 23,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 29,0 29,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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