Английская Википедия:2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Distinguish Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in New Mexico
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1][2][3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ben Ray Luján, incumbent U.S. representative for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district[4]
Withdrew
- Giovanni Haqani, businessman, television host, and candidate for state representative in 2016[5]
- Andrew Perkins, accountant and former Española finance director[6]
- Maggie Toulouse Oliver, incumbent secretary of state of New Mexico[7] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)
Declined
- Jeff Apodaca, businessman and candidate for governor in 2018[8]
- Hector Balderas, Attorney General of New Mexico[4][9]
- Terry Brunner, former United States Department of Agriculture regional director[10]
- Pete Campos, state senator[10]
- Jacob Candelaria, state senator[10]
- Joe Cervantes, state senator and candidate for governor in 2018[10]
- Brian Egolf, speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives[10]
- Deb Haaland, U.S. representative[11] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján); (running for re-election)[12][13]
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque[14]
- Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of New Mexico[15] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)[16]
- Howie Morales, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico[10]
- Valerie Plame, former CIA operations officer[17]
- Jeff Steinborn, state senator[10]
- Xochitl Torres Small, U.S. representative[18]
- Raúl Torrez, Bernalillo County district attorney[19] (running for re-election)
- Tom Udall, incumbent U.S. senator[2][20][21] (endorsed Ben Ray Luján)[22]
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe[23]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján |
Maggie Toulouse Oliver |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO Strategies (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua[24] | April 15–18, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 64% | 25% | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Gavin Clarkson, former professor at New Mexico State University and nominee for New Mexico Secretary of State in 2018[26]
- Elisa Martinez, member of the Navajo Nation and executive director of the New Mexico Alliance for Life[27]
Withdrawn
- Rick Montoya, businessman[28][29]
- Mick Rich, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[30][31]
- Louie Sanchez, indoor shooting range owner [32][31]
Declined
- Rod Adair, former state senator[33]
- Richard J. Berry, former mayor of Albuquerque[2]
- Kevin DuPriest, businessman, data scientist[2]
- Kelly Fajardo, state representative[15]
- Nate Gentry, minority leader of the New Mexico House of Representatives[10]
- Michael Hendricks, attorney and nominee for Attorney General in 2018[15]
- Yvette Herrell, former state representative and nominee for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district in 2018 (Herrell is running for U.S. House of Representatives CD2)[34]
- David Hyder, Valencia County CommissionerШаблон:Citation needed
- Sarah Maestas Barnes, former state representative[10]
- Steve Maestas, real estate developer[10]
- Susana Martinez, former governor of New Mexico[2]
- Mark Moores, state senator[35]
- Judith Nakamura, New Mexico Supreme Court justice[33]
- Steve Pearce, chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008, and nominee for governor in 2018[36]
- John Sanchez, former lieutenant governor of New Mexico[37]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Gavin Clarkson |
Elisa Martinez |
Mark Ronchetti |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 18–22, 2020 | 400 (V) | ± 4.9% | 11% | 11% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | – |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Bob Walsh, nuclear safety scientist[38]
Declined
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[15]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
Debate
| Host | Date & Time | Link(s) | Participants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján (D) | Mark Ronchetti (R) | Bob Walsh (L) | |||
| KOB4 and the Santa Fe New Mexican | October 5, 2020 | [39] | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[46] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[47] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[48] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Bob Walsh (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | October 23–29, 2020 | 1,180 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | 44% | 3% | 1% |
| GBAO Strategies (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52%Шаблон:Efn | 41% | 5% | – |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54%Шаблон:Efn | 43% | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | August 26 – September 2, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2020 | 740 (V) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 34% | – | 18% |
- Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Gavin Clarkson (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | January 3–6, 2020 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 54% | 35% | 12% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO Strategies (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 14–17, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% | 42% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Colfax (largest municipality: Raton)
- Harding (largest municipality: Roy)
- Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
- Luna (largest municipality: Deming)
- Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Voter samples
References
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
- Official campaign websites
- Ben Ray Luján (D) for Senate
- Mark Ronchetti (R) for Senate Шаблон:Webarchive
- Bob Walsh (L) for Senate
Шаблон:2020 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ 10,0 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,4 10,5 10,6 10,7 10,8 10,9 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
<ref>; для сносок1stEndorsementsне указан текст - ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ 15,0 15,1 15,2 15,3 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite tweet
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 31,0 31,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 33,0 33,1 Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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