Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in Maryland
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Maryland sidebar The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, much improved from Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations handicapping the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried Black-majority Prince George's County and Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics.[3]
Biden flipped Frederick County in the Washington, D.C., exurbs and Talbot County on the Eastern Shore Democratic for the first time since 1964.[4] He also flipped Kent County on the Eastern Shore, home of Washington College, Democratic for the first time since 2008. In another college county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico (home of Salisbury University), Trump won but was held below 50% of the vote for the first time for a Republican nominee since 1996.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[5]
Republican primary
Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]
Democratic primary
Green primary
| 2020 Maryland Green Party primary[7][8] | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | |||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||||||
| Howie Hawkins | 34 | 53.1% | 34 | 61.8% | 34 | 64.15% | 34 | 68% | |||||||
| Dario Hunter | 16 | 25% | 16 | 29.1% | 16 | 30.18% | 16 | 32% | |||||||
| Kent Mesplay | 2 | 3.1% | 3 | 5.5% | 3 | 5.66% | Eliminated | ||||||||
| Write-ins | 2 | 3.1% | 2 | 3.6% | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry | 1 | 1.6% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Empty ballot | 9 | 14.1% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Total votes | 64 | 100.0% | |||||||||||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[12] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[16] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold |
Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold |
Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 7–26 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|60.0% | 31.7% | 8.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Шаблон:HsBiden +28.3 |
| Real Clear Politics | September 4 – October 24, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|60.3% | 31.0% | 8.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +29.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|63.1% | 31.6% | 5.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Шаблон:HsBiden +31.4 |
| Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|61.1% | 31.4% | 7.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Biden +29.7 | ||
Polls
Шаблон:Collapse top with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Michael Bloomberg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 59% | – |
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Pete Buttigieg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 58% | – |
with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Tulsi Gabbard (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% | – |
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 59% | – |
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 61% | – |
with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Tom Steyer (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 54% | – |
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 59% | – |
Шаблон:Collapse top with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College | Sep 13–18, 2019 | 548 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 65% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| DFM Research | Jan 19–22, 2019 | 500 (A) | ± 4.4% | 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 53% | – | 16% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
- Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
- Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)
Results by congressional district
Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. [23]
Analysis
Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.[24]
With the exception of racially polarized Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits.[25] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such current run for the party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.
See also
- United States presidential elections in Maryland
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election Шаблон:Elections in Maryland footer
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
