Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in Montana
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Montana sidebar The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Trump won Montana 56.9% to 40.5%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.4% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.
Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Шаблон:Main Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[3]
Democratic primary
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[4] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[7] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[8] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[9] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[10] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[11] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[12] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[16] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold |
Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold |
Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 22–28, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 44.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.2% | 5.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +5.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49.8% | 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +4.4 |
| Average | 45.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.0% | 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +4.9 | ||
Polls
- Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Michael Bloomberg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 55% | 31% | 15% |
- Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Steve Bullock (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% |
- Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Pete Buttigieg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 52% | 35% | 13% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Kamala Harris (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 55% | 45% |
- Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 53% | 31% | 15% |
- Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 56% | 34% | 9% |
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% | 46% | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 57% | 33% | 10% |
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% | 46% | – |
| Zogby Analytics | Aug 17–23, 2017 | 403 (LV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 45% | 39% | 17% |
- Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 44% | 4% |
- with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Joe Biden (D) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Donald Trump (R) |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana | Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019 | 293 (RV) | ± 5.72% | 14.7% | 8.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 36.8%Шаблон:Efn |
Electoral slates
These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[18]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Thelma Baker Becky Stockton Brad Tschida |
Jean Lemire Dahlman Katie Sullivan Cora Neumann |
Francis Wendt Jacob Kitson Cher Kitson |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box win Шаблон:Election box end
By county
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.
Analysis
Montana, a sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988,[20] 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.
Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.
However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's second-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's third-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native American Glacier County; and furthered his margins in the city of Whitefish, located in heavily-Republican Flathead County.[21]
Biden flipped the swing county of Blaine; Trump flipped no counties.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[22]
In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race,[23] Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race,[24] and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race.[25] This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[26] Montana Republicans also won all five state executive branch seats including the State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction. [27]
See also
- United States presidential elections in Montana
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
