Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in New Hampshire sidebar
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominees, incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominees, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
New Hampshire is by far the most fiscally conservative state in New England, and its population has a strong disdain for taxes, historically giving Republicans an edge in its state office elections. However, like the rest of the region, it is very liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, and thus the Democratic Party has dominated in its federal elections in recent years. Although the state came extremely close to voting for Trump in 2016, polls throughout the 2020 campaign showed a clear Biden lead, and prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was heavily favored to win.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering 58% of white women, and 69% of unmarried women.[3] Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions,[3] a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.
Biden flipped the counties of Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Sullivan, of which Hillsborough (which houses the state's largest city of Manchester) and Sullivan had voted for Barack Obama twice before switching to Trump in 2016, then flipping back into the Democratic column in 2020. Biden also significantly expanded Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead of 2,736 votes (0.37%) to 59,267 votes (7.35%). Biden became the first Democrat to win a majority of the vote in Rockingham County since 1964.
Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Contrary to earlier projections however, New Hampshire Republicans took control of both the executive and legislative branches of the New Hampshire government. Republicans flipped the previously Democrat-held New Hampshire state Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans also gained control of the state’s Executive Council, and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu was reelected for a third term with 65% of the vote.[4] Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.
Primary elections
The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[5]
Republican primary
Шаблон:Transcluded section The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6] Шаблон:Trim
Democratic primary
Шаблон:Main Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[7] Шаблон:Excerpt
Libertarian primary
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Excerpt
General election
Final predictions
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold |
Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold |
Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | October 14–29, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53.4% | 42.4% | 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +11.0 |
FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53.9% | 42.8% | 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:HsBiden +11.1 |
Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |53.7% | 42.6% | 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Biden +11.1 |
Polls
Шаблон:Collapse top Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | Feb 19–25, 2020 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 46% | 6% | 1% |
AtlasIntel | Feb 8–10, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 44% | 9% | – |
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal[2] | Feb 4–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48%Шаблон:Efn | 45% | –Шаблон:Efn | –Шаблон:Efn |
Marist College/NBC News | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 2,223 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 2% | 4% |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | – | – |
547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | – | 9% | ||
Saint Anselm College | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | – | 6% |
Emerson College | Sep 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 53% | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51% | – | 8% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 55% | – | – |
Praecones Analytica | Jan 16–21, 2019 | 593 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 54% | – | 5% |
American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 49% | 45% | – | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | Feb 8-10, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46.8% | 40.5% | – | 12.7% |
Marist College/NBC News | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 2,223 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 2% | 5% |
Inside Sources | Jan 16–21, 2020 | 593 (RV) | – | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 49% | – | – |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | – | 10% |
Saint Anselm College | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% | – | 7% |
Emerson College | Sep 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 51% | 49% | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | – | 7% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% | – | – |
Praecones Analytica | Jan 16–21, 2019 | 593 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 54% | – | 5% |
American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% | 42% | – | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Michael Bloomberg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | Feb 19–25, 2020 | 561 (LV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 33% | 16% | 5% |
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Pete Buttegieg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | Feb 19–25, 2020 | 569 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 7% | 3% |
AtlasIntel | Feb 8–10, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3% | 45.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46.1% | – | 8.6% |
Marist College/NBC News | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 2,223 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 1% | 6% |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | – | – |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | – | 11% |
Saint Anselm College | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | – | 9% |
Gravis Marketing | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | – | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Andrew Yang (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | November 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 49% | – |
Emerson College | November 23–26, 2019 | 547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 46% | 12% |
Emerson College | September 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 54% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Cory Booker (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 | ± 3.2% | 49% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Kamala Harris (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | September 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 51% | – |
Gravis Marketing | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 47% | 9% |
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 52% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Praecones Analytica | Jan 16–21, 2019 | 593 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 41% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | 12% |
Шаблон:Collapse top with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Howard Schultz (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 48% | 10% | – |
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Howard Schultz (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Шаблон:Webarchive | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 45% | 44% | 12% | – |
with John Kasich and Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
John Kasich (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 46% | 8% |
with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
John Kasich (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 52% | 37% | 11% |
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10[3] | Jan 29-Feb 1, 2020 | 892 (V) | – | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
Praecones Analytica | Aug 13–15, 2018 | 626 (RV) | ± 5.4% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 49% | – | 13% |
with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Generic third party |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | Apr 25–28, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic| 43% | 6% | 11% |
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire/CNN | Jan 15–23, 2020 | 1,169 (A) | ± 2.9% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Other|49%Шаблон:Efn | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
Results
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By county
County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other votes | Margin | Total votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | ||
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Belknap | 43.90% | 16,894 | 54.31% | 20,899 | 1.55% | 598 | 0.23% | 88 | -10.41% | -4,005 | 38,479 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Carroll | 50.00% | 16,649 | 48.50% | 16,150 | 1.27% | 422 | 0.23% | 76 | 1.50% | 499 | 33,279 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Cheshire | 57.52% | 25,522 | 40.34% | 17,898 | 1.80% | 800 | 0.34% | 150 | 17.18% | 7,624 | 44,370 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Coös | 46.18% | 7,640 | 52.09% | 8,617 | 1.56% | 258 | 0.18% | 29 | -5.91% | -977 | 16,544 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Grafton | 61.29% | 33,180 | 36.77% | 19,905 | 1.63% | 881 | 0.30% | 166 | 24.52% | 13,275 | 54,132 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Hillsborough | 52.81% | 122,344 | 45.16% | 104,625 | 1.71% | 3,972 | 0.31% | 718 | 7.65% | 17,719 | 231,659 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Merrimack | 53.85% | 48,533 | 44.06% | 39,711 | 1.73% | 1,561 | 0.37% | 328 | 9.79% | 8,822 | 90,133 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Rockingham | 50.20% | 100,064 | 48.09% | 95,858 | 1.44% | 2,876 | 0.27% | 544 | 2.11% | 4,206 | 199,342 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Strafford | 56.53% | 41,721 | 41.31% | 30,489 | 1.88% | 1,386 | 0.28% | 209 | 15.22% | 11,232 | 73,805 |
align="center" Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Sullivan | 50.69% | 12,390 | 47.08% | 11,508 | 1.97% | 482 | 0.26% | 64 | 3.61% | 882 | 24,444 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Carroll (largest municipality: Conway)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
- Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont)
By congressional district
District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 52.2% | 46.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Chris Pappas |
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 53.5% | 44.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Annie Kuster |
See also
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 New Hampshire elections
- United States presidential elections in New Hampshire
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Further reading
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election Шаблон:Elections in New Hampshire footer
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 3,0 3,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web