Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in New Mexico sidebar The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.^[3] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.^[4]^[5]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).^[6] He also won over Native Americans, garnering 60–90% of the vote.^[7]^[8] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.^[9]^[10] This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.^[11] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. President after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[12]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary
Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Шаблон:Sortname	Шаблон:Nts	Шаблон:Nts	22
Uncommitted	Шаблон:Nts	Шаблон:Nts	0
Total	157,876	100%	22

Democratic primary

Шаблон:Excerpt

Libertarian primary

Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Infobox election

New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020^[13]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee)Шаблон:Efn	520	33.12%
Uncommitted	330	21.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)	158	10.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost)Шаблон:Efn	154	9.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost)Шаблон:Efn	124	7.90%
Sam Robb (lost)Шаблон:Efn	90	5.73%
John Monds (lost)Шаблон:Efn	63	4.01%
Dan Behrman (lost)Шаблон:Efn	58	3.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost)Шаблон:Efn	39	2.48%
James Ogle (lost)Шаблон:Efn	34	2.17%
Total	1,557	100%

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report^[14]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
Inside Elections^[15]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[16]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
Politico^[17]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
RCP^[18]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
Niskanen^[19]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
CNN^[20]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
The Economist^[21]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
CBS News^[22]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
270towin^[23]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
ABC News^[24]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
NPR^[25]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
NBC News^[26]	Шаблон:USRaceRating
538^[27]	Шаблон:USRaceRating

Polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Aggregate polls


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold	Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold	Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn	Margin
270 to Win	October 6 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53.5%	40.5%	6.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|Шаблон:HsBiden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53.8%	42.3%	3.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:HsBiden +11.5
Average			Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53.7%	41.4%	4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Biden +12.3

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin Шаблон:Nowrap	Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold	Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold	Jo Jorgensen Шаблон:Nobold	Howie Hawkins Шаблон:Nobold	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,481 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|56%	–	–	–	–
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal	Oct 23–29, 2020	1,180 (LV)	± 2.9%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|54%	–	–	3%Шаблон:Efn	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,719 (LV)	–	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|52%	–	–	–	–
GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	Oct 14–17, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|54%	–	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report	Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020	886 (LV)	± 3.3%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53%	2%	–	2%Шаблон:Efn	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	1,015 (LV)	–	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|54%	–	–	–	1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal	Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020	1,123 (LV)	± 2.9%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|54%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,087 (LV)	–	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|56%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	904 (LV)	–	48%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	506 (LV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|50%	49%	–	–	–	1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report	Jun 12–13, 2020	740 (V)	± 3.6%	39%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|53%	–	–	–	8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute Шаблон:Webarchive Шаблон:Efn-ua	Apr 20–21, 2020	1,091 (RV)	± 3.1%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 52%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College	Jan 3–6, 2020	967 (RV)	± 3.1%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 54%	–	–	–	–

Шаблон:Collapse top Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin Шаблон:Nowrap	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)
Emerson College	Jan 3–6, 2020	967 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 55%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin Шаблон:Nowrap	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)
Emerson College	Jan 3–6, 2020	967 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 59%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin Шаблон:Nowrap	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)
Emerson College	Jan 3–6, 2020	967 (RV)	± 3.1%	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\| 54%

Шаблон:Collapse bottom

Results

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box win Шаблон:Election box end

By county

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county^[28]
County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
County	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	#
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Bernalillo	61.01%	193,757	36.57%	116,135	2.42%	7,698	24.44%	77,622	317,590
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Catron	25.58%	595	73.00%	1,698	1.42%	33	-47.42%	-1,103	2,326
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Chaves	28.43%	6,381	69.76%	15,656	1.81%	406	-41.33%	-9,275	22,443
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Cibola	53.30%	4,745	44.65%	3,975	2.05%	183	8.65%	770	8,903
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Colfax	43.40%	2,611	54.37%	3,271	2.23%	134	-10.97%	-660	6,016
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Curry	28.52%	4,307	69.16%	10,444	2.32%	350	-40.64%	-6,137	15,101
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|De Baca	25.64%	231	72.81%	656	1.55%	14	-47.17%	-425	901
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Doña Ana	58.03%	47,957	39.69%	32,802	2.28%	1,882	18.34%	15,155	82,641
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Eddy	23.36%	5,424	75.16%	17,454	1.48%	344	-51.80%	-12,030	23,222
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Grant	52.58%	7,590	45.4%	6,553	2.02%	292	7.18%	1,037	14,435
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Guadalupe	56.37%	1,234	41.89%	917	1.74%	38	14.48%	317	2,189
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Harding	35.45%	179	63.17%	319	1.38%	7	-27.72%	-140	505
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Hidalgo	41.69%	823	56.74%	1,120	1.57%	31	-15.05%	-297	1,974
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Lea	19.41%	4,061	79.03%	16,531	1.56%	326	-59.62%	-12,470	20,918
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Lincoln	30.99%	3,194	67.36%	6,942	1.65%	170	-36.37%	-3,748	10,306
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Los Alamos	61.45%	7,554	34.80%	4,278	3.75%	461	26.65%	3,276	12,293
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Luna	43.97%	3,563	54.40%	4,408	1.63%	132	-10.43%	-845	8,103
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|McKinley	68.07%	18,029	29.45%	7,801	2.48%	656	38.62%	10,228	26,486
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Mora	64.97%	1,745	33.62%	903	1.41%	38	31.35%	842	2,686
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Otero	36.00%	8,485	61.60%	14,521	2.40%	565	-25.60%	-6,036	23,571
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Quay	29.60%	1,170	68.00%	2,634	1.78%	69	-38.40%	-1,464	3,873
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Rio Arriba	66.09%	10,990	32.52%	5,408	1.38%	230	33.57%	5,582	16,628
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Roosevelt	27.27%	1,802	70.13%	4,634	2.60%	172	-42.86%	-2,832	6,608
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Sandoval	53.01%	40,588	44.64%	34,174	2.35%	1,800	8.37%	6,414	76,562
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|San Juan	34.58%	18,083	62.86%	32,874	2.56%	1,337	-28.28%	-14,791	52,294
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|San Miguel	68.41%	7,888	29.66%	3,421	1.93%	222	38.75%	4,467	11,531
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Santa Fe	76.05%	62,530	22.29%	18,329	1.66%	1,368	53.76%	44,201	82,227
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Sierra	38.10%	2,265	59.58%	3,542	2.32%	138	-21.48%	-1,277	5,945
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Socorro	51.98%	3,722	45.46%	3,255	1.86%	183	6.52%	467	7,160
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Taos	76.37%	13,121	21.63%	3,715	2.00%	345	54.74%	9,406	17,181
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Torrance	32.19%	2,344	65.54%	4,772	2.27%	165	-33.35%	-2,428	7,281
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Union	21.41%	383	77.59%	1,388	1.00%	18	-56.18%	-1,005	1,789
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Valencia	44.19%	14,263	53.8%	17,364	2.01%	650	-9.61%	-3,101	32,277
Totals	54.29%	501,614	43.50%	401,894	2.21%	20,457	10.79%	99,720	923,965

Шаблон:Align

By congressional district

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	37.4%	60.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Deb Haaland
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Шаблон:Ushr	54.9%	43.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Xochitl Torres Small
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Yvette Herrell	54.9%	43.1%
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Шаблон:Ushr	40.1%	57.7%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Ben Ray Luján
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Teresa Leger Fernandez	40.1%	57.7%

Analysis

The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, the Land of Enchantment has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.^[29]

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.^[30]^[31] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith^[32] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.^[33]

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Citation
Шаблон:Citation
Шаблон:Cite web (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Шаблон:Ballotpedia

Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election

[1] Шаблон:Cite news

[2] Шаблон:Cite web

[3] Шаблон:Cite news

[4] Шаблон:Cite web

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[6] Шаблон:Cite news

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[16] Шаблон:Cite web

[17] Шаблон:Cite web

[18] Шаблон:Cite web

[19] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.

[20] Шаблон:Cite news

[21] Шаблон:Cite news

[22] Шаблон:Cite web

[23] Шаблон:Cite web

[24] Шаблон:Cite web

[25] Шаблон:Cite news

[26] Шаблон:Cite web

[27] Шаблон:Cite web

[28] Шаблон:Cite web

[29] Шаблон:Cite web

[30] Шаблон:Cite web

[31] Шаблон:Cite web

[32] Шаблон:Cite web

[33] Шаблон:Cite web

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