Английская Википедия:2020 United States presidential election in Utah
Шаблон:Short descriptionШаблон:Main Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Utah sidebar The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Utah as leaning towards Trump, or a safe red state. Throughout the campaign, Trump did not exceed 60% in a single poll conducted. Some polls even showed the president leading by single digits against Biden, likely indicating a closer than normal contest in this traditionally Republican stronghold. In past elections, Utah has often given the GOP nominee one of their largest victories in the nation, having awarded George W. Bush and Mitt Romney over 70% of the vote in 2004 and 2012, respectively. However, Trump only won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to past Republican nominees. He performed strongly in rural areas, as well as in some larger counties like Utah (Provo), Davis (Farmington), and Weber (Ogden). Trump improved over his 45.5% plurality win in 2016, due in part to the lack of a strong third party presence, as Evan McMullin, who endorsed Biden,[3][4] earned 21.5% of the vote that year. The election was far more of a two-party contest in 2020, with third parties receiving 4.2% of the vote, compared to 27% in 2016. Despite this, the Associated Press reported a less partisan and more cooperative cultural environment in Utah compared to other states during the election.[5]
With no major third-party challenges, Trump improved his vote share by 13% while Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 results by 10.3 percentage points. Biden's improvement garnered him the highest percentage by a Democratic presidential nominee in Utah since Lyndon Johnson won with 54.9% of the vote in 1964, as Biden overtook the vote shares of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama in 2008, and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the only other Democratic nominees to surpass a third of the state's vote since 1964). Biden's greatest support came from Salt Lake County, the state's most populous county, where he won 53.7%, the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson in 1964. Biden also won Summit County (Park City), which, along with Salt Lake, was one of two counties in the state Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016 (and the only one where she had won a majority); and he flipped Grand County (Moab), which had voted Democratic in 1992 and 2008.[6]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Utah came from Mormons. 53% of voters identified as Mormons, and Trump received 72% of their votes.[7] Trump also won the suburban areas, which make up 57% of the state, with 54% of the vote.[8]
Utah is also one of the 7 states (along with Arkansas, Nevada, California, Illinois, Florida, and Hawaii) as well as the District of Columbia in which Trump’s margin increased from 2016.
Primary elections
Republican primary
Шаблон:See The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Utah politicians Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney both declined to run against Trump.
Democratic primary
Шаблон:See The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[9][10]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[11] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
Inside Elections[12] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
Politico[14] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
RCP[15] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[16] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
CNN[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
The Economist[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
CBS News[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
270towin[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
ABC News[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
NPR[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
NBC News[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
538[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Шаблон:Nobold |
Donald Trump Шаблон:Nobold |
Other/ Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | October 23–31, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 41.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.5% | 8.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +9.5 |
FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 42.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51.9% | 6.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Шаблон:HsTrump +9.8 |
Average | 41.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51.2% | 7.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +9.6 |
Polls
Шаблон:Collapse top with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Michael Bloomberg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 32% | 11%Шаблон:Efn | 13% |
with Donald Trump and Cory Booker
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Cory Booker (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 153 (RV) | – | 31% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |43% | 23%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Pete Buttigieg (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 25% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 144 (RV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% | 28% | 15%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Kamala Harris (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 144 (RV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% | 33% | 15%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Amy Klobuchar (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 23% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 140 (RV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41% | 27% | 25%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Bernie Sanders (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 33% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 31% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 153 (RV) | – | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |44% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Elizabeth Warren (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 28% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 28% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 144 (RV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | 36% | 19%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
Шаблон:Collapse top with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News | Jan 16–30, 2020 | 2,174 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 31% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News | Sep 25 – Oct 8, 2019 | 944 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% | 33% | 16%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 News | Jun 27 – Jul 17, 2019 | 2,464 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38% | 30% | 18%Шаблон:Efn | 14% |
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Donald Trump (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce | Feb 28 – Mar 11, 2020 | 798 (LV) | ± 3.47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 45%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce | Oct 3–10, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 46%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce | Jun 11 – Jul 1, 2019 | 801 (LV) | – | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Other|52%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box end
Results by county
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Trump won all four congressional districts.[26]
District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 64.2% | 31.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Rob Bishop |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Blake Moore | |||
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 56.1% | 40.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Chris Stewart |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 60.3% | 35.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|John Curtis |
rowspan=2 Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 52.4% | 43.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Ben McAdams |
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Burgess Owens |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Utah
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
References
External links
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Citation
- Шаблон:Cite web (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Шаблон:Ballotpedia
Шаблон:2020 United States elections Шаблон:State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Шаблон:Webarchive, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег
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; для сносокerfinal
не указан текст - ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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