Английская Википедия:2020 VV
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox planet 2020 VV is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly Шаблон:Convert in diameter. On 20 November 2020, the asteroid had a 4.4% chance of impacting Earth on 12 October 2033 11:43 UT.[1] As of mid-December 2020, the asteroid has a modest 61 day observation arc. The nominal Earth approach is on 17 October 2033 at a distance of Шаблон:Convert, but the line of variations (LOV) is only known with an accuracy of ±22 hours.[2] The line of variations allows the asteroid to come as close as Шаблон:Convert or pass as far away as Шаблон:Convert.[2] With a diameter range of 10–22 meters the asteroid could be as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor.
2020 VV was discovered on 5 November 2020 when it was about Шаблон:Convert from Earth and had a solar elongation of 150 degrees. It has a very low 0.35° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 14,800 km.[2] The asteroid passed Earth on 21 October 2020 at a distance of Шаблон:Convert.[2]
Where Earth will be on a given date is known, but given the short observation arc where precisely the asteroid will be on its orbit in 2033 is not. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause the asteroid to be early, right on time (impact solution), or late.Шаблон:Efn
Impact probabilities are calculated independently by Sentry, NEODyS-2 and ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme. Different models result in slightly different orbit solutions, nominal close approach distances, and impact probabilities.[3] With a long enough observation arc these solutions will converge. In general when the nominal approach is closer to the impact scenario, the odds of impact are greater.
Date and time | Nominal closest approach | Position uncertaintyШаблон:Efn | Impact probability on 12 Oct 2033Шаблон:Efn |
Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 October 2033 11:43 | expired impact scenario | ±2.5 hours | Sentry[4]Шаблон:Efn | |
17 October 2033 08:57 | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | none | ESA[5][6] |
17 October 2033 09:30 | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | none | JPL SBDB[2][4] |
17 October 2033 13:26 | Шаблон:Convert | Шаблон:Convert | none | NEODyS-2[7] |
The line of variation (risk corridor) for 2033 passed over the northeastern USA, Spain, Saudi Arabia, India, and China.[8]
The greatest chances of impact were listed between 17 and 20 November 2020. On 17 November 2020 the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 4.2% chance (1 in 24) of impact,[9] Sentry listed a 2.8% chance (1 in 36),[10] and NEODyS-2 listed a cumulative 5.9% chance of impact.[10] By 20 November 2020 with a 15-day observation arc NEODyS-2 listed a 4.4% chance (1 in 23) of impact.[1]Шаблон:Efn At the same time, Sentry listed a 1.3% chance (1 in 77) of impact, and the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 1.6% chance (1 in 63).
2020 VV is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object, because the estimated size is significantly smaller than the threshold of about 140 meters for potentially hazardous objects.
Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
---|---|---|---|
2056-10-11 00:00 | 1500 | Шаблон:Convert[11] | ±100 million km[11] |
Notes
References
External links
- Шаблон:NeoDys
- Шаблон:ESA-SSA
- Table of Asteroids Next Closest Approaches to the Earth Osservatorio Astronomico Sormano
- Sentry (6 Nov 2020) with impact years ranging from 2027-2118 / 2020 VV entries Шаблон:Webarchive – hohmanntransfer
- Asteroid Hazards, Part 3: Finding the Path – YouTube video by the Minor Planet Center (26 August 2015)
Шаблон:2020 in space Шаблон:Small Solar System bodies Шаблон:Authority control
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