Английская Википедия:2021 Baden-Württemberg state election

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Infobox election The 2021 Baden-Württemberg state election was held on 14 March 2021 to elect the 17th Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.^[1] The outgoing government was a coalition of Alliance 90/The Greens and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann.

The Greens remained the largest party with 32.6% of votes, an increase of two percentage points. Their junior coalition partner, the CDU, suffered its worst result in state history, falling to 24%. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) also recorded a decline, but rose from fourth to third place. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) made small gains. Alternative for Germany (AfD) lost more than a third of their vote share and became the smallest party in the Landtag.^[2]

The CDU and SPD each recorded no net change in seats thanks to an increase in the size of the Landtag caused by a number of overhang seats won by the Greens. Overall, the governing coalition was returned with an increased majority, but an alternative coalition between the Greens, SPD, and FDP also won a majority; the Greens and SPD together fell one seat short of a majority.^[3] On 2 April, the Greens voted to enter negotiations with the CDU.^[4] The two parties finalised a coalition agreement on 1 May.^[5] Kretschmann was re-elected as Minister-President on 12 May.^[6]

Election date

The period of the 16th Landtag formally ends on 30 April 2021. The election of the 17th Landtag must take place before this date. On 24 March 2020, the state government designated 14 March 2021 as the date for the next election, in accordance with Section 19 of the State Parliament Election Act.^[1] A state election was held on the same day in neighbouring state of Rhineland-Palatinate.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 70 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 50 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Baden-Württemberg's four government districts. Unlike other states, Baden-Württemberg does not use party lists to fill proportional seats; instead, they are filled by the best-performing candidates who failed to be elected in the single-member constituencies. Candidates elected in this manner are listed as winning a "second mandate" (Zweitmandat) in the constituency in which they ran. The minimum size of the Landtag is 120 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded.^[1]

Background

Шаблон:Mainarticle In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, The Greens became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 30.3% of votes cast. The CDU lost 12 percentage points, falling to second place on 27.0%. Alternative for Germany contested their first state election in Baden-Württemberg, placing third with 15.1%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost almost half its voteshare and finished with 12.7%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 8.3%.

The Greens had led a coalition with the SPD since 2011, but this government lost its majority in the election. The Greens subsequently formed a coalition with the CDU, which took office as Cabinet Kretschmann II.

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the 16th Landtag.

Шаблон:Abbr	Name			Ideology	Lead candidate	2016 result
Шаблон:Abbr	Name			Ideology	Lead candidate	Votes (%)	Seats
1	bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color \|	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Шаблон:Small	Green politics	Winfried Kretschmann	30.3%	Шаблон:Composition bar
2	bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color \|	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Шаблон:Small	Christian democracy	Susanne Eisenmann	27.0%	Шаблон:Composition bar
3	bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color \|	AfD	Alternative for Germany Шаблон:Small	Right-wing populism	Bernd Gögel	15.1%	Шаблон:Composition bar
4	bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color \|	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Шаблон:Small	Social democracy	Andreas Stoch	12.7%	Шаблон:Composition bar
5	bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color \|	FDP	Free Democratic Party Шаблон:Small	Classical liberalism	Hans-Ulrich Rülke	8.3%	Шаблон:Composition bar

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, sixteen parties contested the election:^[7]

Шаблон:Abbr	Name	Шаблон:Abbr
6	The Left (LINKE)	70
7	Ecological Democratic Party/Family and Environment (ÖDP)	67
8	Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	4
9	Die PARTEI (PARTEI)	52
10	FREE VOTERS (Freie Wähler)	69
11	Humane World (Menschliche Welt)	2
12	Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)	9
13	German Communist Party (DKP)	1
14	dieBasis – Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (DieBasis)	60
15	Democracy in Motion (DiB)	3
16	One for All – Party	1
17	Climate List Baden-Württemberg (KlimalisteBW)	67
18	Party of Humanists (PdH)	3
19	Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung)	2
20	Party WIR2020 (W2020)	68
21	Volt Deutschland (Volt)	44

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 29 May 2019, state Minister for Education, Youth, and Sports Susanne Eisenmann was confirmed as the CDU's lead candidate for the election.^[8]

On 12 September 2019, Winfried Kretschmann stated that he would stand as the lead candidate for The Greens in the 2021 election, seeking a third term as Minister-President.^[9]

On 1 February 2020, state party leader Andreas Stoch was nominated as the SPD's lead candidate for the election.^[10]

On 8 December 2019, the FDP state executive nominated Hans-Ulrich Rülke as their preferred lead candidate for the election. He was formally selected at a party conference in July 2020.^[11] Rülke had served as leader of the FDP Landtag faction since 2009, and was the party's lead candidate in the 2016 election.^[12]

In August 2020, AfD parliamentary group leader Bernd Gögel advocated against the selection of a lead candidate for the election. He stated that due to the party's position and the state's unusual electoral system, the lead candidate might fall short of election to the Landtag. "If the top candidate missed entry, that would be embarrassing."^[13] In January 2021, Gögel defeated deputy parliamentary group leader Emil Sänze to become lead candidate after four rounds of voting in an online member survey.^[14]

On 6 December 2020, The Left nominated state spokeswoman Sahra Mirow as their lead candidate for the election.^[15]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Wide image

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Grüne	CDU	AfD	SPD	FDP	Linke	Others	Lead
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	Others	Lead
2021 state election	14 Mar 2021	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 32.6	24.1	9.7	11.0	10.5	3.6	8.5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 8.6
INSA	11–12 Mar 2021	1,066	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 32	23	13	11	11	4	6	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	8–11 Mar 2021	1,867	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 34	24	11	10	11	3	7	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 10
INSA	1–7 Mar 2021	1,558	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 32	25	12	10	11	3	7Шаблон:Efn	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Mar 2021	1,032	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 35	24	11	10	10	3	7	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 11
Infratest dimap	1–3 Mar 2021	1,185	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 33	25	12	10	10	4	6	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 8
INSA	8–11 Feb 2021	1,009	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 31	28	11	11	10	4	5Шаблон:Efn	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Feb 2021	1,032	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 34	28	11	10	9	3	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 6
Infratest dimap	1–2 Feb 2021	1,000	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 34	27	10	11	9	3	6	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 7
INSA	5–11 Jan 2021	1,010	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 30	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 30	12	12	8	4	4	Tie
Infratest dimap	14–16 Dec 2020	1,001	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 35	30	11	10	7	3	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 5
INSA	10–16 Nov 2020	1,001	29	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 31	12	11	7	5	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 2
Infratest dimap	8–13 Oct 2020	1,001	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 34	29	11	11	6	4	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 5
INSA	2–9 Sep 2020	1,000	28	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 31	12	12	7	5	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 3
Infratest dimap	27–28 Apr 2020	1,003	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 34	30	12	11	6	3	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 4
INSA	15–20 Apr 2020	1,523	29	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 31	11	13	7	4	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 2
Infratest dimap	5–10 Mar 2020	1,001	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 36	23	14	11	7	5	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 13
INSA	23–28 Oct 2019	1,036	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 30	27	13	11	9	4	6	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 3
Infratest dimap	16–17 Sep 2019	1,004	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 38	26	12	8	8	3	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 12
INSA	6–8 May 2019	1,040	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 28	27	12	11	10	6	6Шаблон:Efn	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 1
Infratest dimap	20–26 Mar 2019	1,002	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 32	28	11	12	9	4	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 4
INSA	7–12 Feb 2019	1,006	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 29	27	12	13	9	5	5	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 2
Forsa	29 Jan–1 Feb 2019	1,007	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 33	23	13	9	9	6	7	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 10
Infratest dimap	5–10 Sep 2018	1,003	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 29	28	15	11	7	7	3	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 1
INSA	1–6 Sep 2018	1,046	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 27	25	18	12	9	5	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 2
Forsa	8–22 Feb 2018	1,003	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 32	27	12	12	9	4	4	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 5
Infratest dimap	26–30 Jan 2018	1,003	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 29	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 29	12	12	8	6	4	Tie
Infratest dimap	3–7 Mar 2017	1,004	27	Шаблон:Party shading/CDU\| 28	11	20	7	4	3	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 1
Infratest dimap	9–13 Sep 2016	1,001	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 31	26	17	13	7	3	3	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 5
2016 state election	13 Mar 2016	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 30.3	27.0	15.1	12.7	8.3	2.9	3.7	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 3.3

Minister-President polling

Шаблон:Graph:Chart

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Файл:Winfried Kretschmann 2012 (cropped).jpg	Файл:Thomas Strobl Portrait 2013.jpg	Шаблон:Css Image Crop	None/Unsure	Lead
			Шаблон:Nowrap Grüne	Шаблон:Nowrap CDU	Шаблон:Nowrap CDU
			style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Mar 2021	1,032	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 70	–	11	19	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 59
Infratest dimap	1–3 Mar 2021	1,185	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 65	–	17	18	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 48
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Feb 2021	1,032	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 70	–	13	17	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 57
Infratest dimap	1–2 Feb 2021	1,000	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 65	–	16	13	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 49
INSA	5–11 Jan 2021	1,010	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 52	–	12	23	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 40
Infratest dimap	8–13 Oct 2020	1,001	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 66	–	13	12	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 53
Infratest dimap	16–17 Sep 2019	1,004	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 69	–	13	9	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 56
Infratest dimap	20–26 Mar 2019	1,002	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 63	17	–	12	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 46
Forsa	29 Jan–1 Feb 2019	1,007	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 59	5	–	–	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 54
Infratest dimap	5–10 Sep 2018	1,003	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne\| 67	14	–	10	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"\| 53

Preferred coalition

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Assessment	Grüne CDU		CDU Grüne		CDU SPD FDP			Grüne SPD FDP
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Assessment	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|	style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"\|
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Mar 2021	1,032	Positive	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne colspan="2"\| 49	34		25			28
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Mar 2021	1,032	Negative	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne colspan="2"\| 27	40		51			46
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Шаблон:Webarchive	1–4 Feb 2021	1,032	Positive	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne colspan="2"\| 44	39		30			26
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Шаблон:Webarchive	1–4 Feb 2021	1,032	Negative	Шаблон:Party shading/Grüne colspan="2"\| 32	37		48			51

Results

Файл:Landtagswahl 2021 Baden-Württemberg Wahlkreismehrheiten.svg

First mandates by constituency (Wahlkreis)

Party		Votes	%	Swing	Seats			+/–
Файл:2021 Baden-Württemberg state election - composition chart.svg
Party		Votes	%	Swing	Constituency	Party-list	Total	+/–
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	1,586,192	32.6	Шаблон:Increase 2.3	58	0	58	Шаблон:Increase 11
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)	1,168,975	24.1	Шаблон:Decrease 2.9	12	30	42	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)	535,489	11.0	Шаблон:Decrease 1.7	0	19	19	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	508,429	10.5	Шаблон:Increase 2.2	0	18	18	Шаблон:Increase 6
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	473,485	9.7	Шаблон:Decrease 5.4	0	17	17	Шаблон:Decrease 6

bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	The Left (LINKE)	173,317	3.6	Шаблон:Increase 0.7	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Free Voters (FW)	146,259	3.0	Шаблон:Increase 2.9	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Die PARTEI	59,463	1.2	Шаблон:Increase 0.9	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany	48,497	1.0	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Climate List Baden-Württemberg	42,685	0.9	New	0	0	0	New
	Party WIR2020	41,128	0.8	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Ecological Democratic Party	37,819	0.8	Шаблон:Increase 0.1	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Volt Germany	22,782	0.5	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Alliance C – Christians for Germany	4,081	0.1	Шаблон:Increase 0.1	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Pirate Party Germany	2,878	0.1	Шаблон:Decrease 0.3	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Democracy in Motion	1,005	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Party of Humanists	976	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Humane World	975	0.0	Шаблон:Increase 0.0	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Party for Health Research	468	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
	One for All – Party	178	0.0	New	0	0	0	New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	German Communist Party	107	0.0	Шаблон:Decrease 0.0	0	0	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color\|	Independents	4,463	0.1	Шаблон:Increase 0.1	0	–	0	Шаблон:Steady 0
Total		4,859,651	100.0	–	70	84	154	Шаблон:Increase 11
Invalid/blank votes		34,849	0.7
Registered voters/turnout		7,671,039	63.8	Шаблон:Decrease 6.6
Source: State Returning Officer

Шаблон:Bar box Шаблон:Bar box

Aftermath

The CDU suffered its worst ever result in the state, falling to 24%. Lead candidate Susanne Eisenmann, whose approval ratings as a minister were described by the Tagesschau as "moderate to bad", claimed responsibility for the poor result. However, factors such as disputes about the state government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the "mask scandal" which broke a few days before the election, were cited as contributing factors.^[16]

Both the incumbent Green–CDU coalition and an alternative centre-left "traffic light coalition" of the Greens, SPD, and FDP garnered a majority, leading to speculation about a possible change in the governing arrangement.^[16] Combined with the successful re-election of a traffic light government in neighbouring Rhineland-Palatinate the same day, this sparked discussion about the arrangement nationally, including its viability on the federal level.^[17] However, the Greens of Baden-Württemberg are considered to be more conservative by the national party standards, with Kretschmann himself identifying as a green conservative and has been associated with economically liberal viewpoints, in addition to being a practicing Catholic.^[18]^[19]^[20]

Government formation

After the election, Minister-President Kretschmann invited all parties except the AfD to exploratory talks, beginning with the CDU. This somewhat dampened speculation about a possible realignment of the governing coalition, though Kretschmann stated there was no special significance behind the decision to meet with the CDU first.^[21] On 2 April, the state Greens voted to enter negotiations with the CDU.^[4] The two parties finalised a coalition agreement on 1 May.^[5]

On 12 May, Kretschmann was elected as Minister-President for a third term by the Landtag. He won 95 votes with 55 against. The new ministry was sworn in the same day, comprising six Green and five CDU ministers.^[6]

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist Шаблон:2021 elections in Germany Шаблон:Baden-Württemberg state elections

[Landtagswahl2021-1] 1,0 ^1,1 ^1,2 Шаблон:Cite web

[2] Шаблон:Cite web

[3] Шаблон:Cite news

[GreenBlack-4] 4,0 ^4,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[Set-5] 5,0 ^5,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[Invest-6] 6,0 ^6,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[7] Шаблон:Cite web

[8] Шаблон:Cite web

[9] Шаблон:Cite web

[10] Шаблон:Cite web

[11] Шаблон:Cite web

[12] Шаблон:Cite web

[13] Шаблон:Cite web

[14] Шаблон:Cite web

[15] Шаблон:Cite web

[Options-16] 16,0 ^16,1 Шаблон:Cite web

[17] Шаблон:Cite web

[18] Шаблон:Cite news

[19] Шаблон:Cite web

[20] Шаблон:Cite web

[21] Шаблон:Cite web

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