Английская Википедия:2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Infobox election The 2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 14 March 2021 to elect the 18th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate.[1] The outgoing government was a "traffic light coalition" of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and The Greens led by Minister-President Malu Dreyer.

The SPD won an unexpectedly clear plurality of 35.7% of votes cast, less than one percentage point lower than their 2016 result.[2] The opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finished on 27.7%, a decline of four percentage points, its worst result in the state to date. The Greens moved from fifth to third place with 9.3%. Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw the worst losses of any party, falling to 8.3%. The Free Democratic Party recorded a small decline to 5.5% but retained their seats. The Free Voters (FW) entered the Landtag for the first time with 5.4%, marking their third appearance in a state parliament overall, following Bavaria and Brandenburg.[3]

Overall, the incumbent government was returned with an increased majority. After the election, Minister-President Dreyer expressed her desire to renew the outgoing coalition.[4] On 30 April, the SPD, Greens, and FDP came to a coalition agreement.[5] Dreyer was re-elected as Minister-President on 18 May.[6]

Election date

The period of the 17th Landtag began on 18 April 2016. Landtag elections may take place between 57 and 60 months after the commencement of the term of the previous Landtag; thus, the election may take place between February and May 2021.[7] On 11 February 2020, the state government announced the date of the election as 14 March 2021.[1] A state election was held on the same day in neighbouring state of Baden-Württemberg.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 52 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 49 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in four multi-member districts.[8] Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 101 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded.[9]

Background

Шаблон:Mainarticle In the previous election held on 13 March 2016, the SPD retained its position as the largest party ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Rhineland-Palatinate, placing third with 12.6%. The FDP returned to the Landtag after falling out in 2011, winning 6.2% and 7 seats. The Greens narrowly retained their representation with 5.3%, a loss of 10.1 percentage points.

The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2011 but lost its majority in the election. The SPD subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP and Greens.

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the 17th Landtag.

Шаблон:Abbr Name Ideology Lead
candidate
2016 result
Votes (%) Seats
1 bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Social democracy Malu Dreyer 36.2% Шаблон:Composition bar
2 bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Шаблон:Small
Christian democracy Christian Baldauf 31.8% Шаблон:Composition bar
3 bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | AfD Alternative for Germany
Шаблон:Small
Right-wing populism Michael Frisch 12.6% Шаблон:Composition bar
4 bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | FDP Free Democratic Party
Шаблон:Small
Classical liberalism Daniela Schmitt 6.2% Шаблон:Composition bar
5 bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Шаблон:Small
Green politics Anne Spiegel 5.3% Шаблон:Composition bar

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, eight other parties contested the election:[10]

Шаблон:Abbr Name
6 The Left (LINKE)
7 FREE VOTERS Rhineland-Palatinate (FREIE WÄHLER)
8 Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN)
9 Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)
10 Climate List RLP (Klimaliste RLP e. V.)
11 Die PARTEI (PARTEI)
12 Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei)
13 Volt Deutschland (Volt)

Campaign

Lead candidates

On 18 October 2019, the state executive of The Greens nominated Anne Spiegel, Minister for Family, Women, Youth, Integration and Consumer Protection, as the party's lead candidate for the election.[11]

On 16 November 2019, leader of the CDU parliamentary group Christian Baldauf was selected as his party's lead candidate for the election.[12] He won 80.25% of votes against challenger Marlon Bröhr, administrator of the Rhein-Hunsrück district.[13]

On 2 December 2019, Minister-President Malu Dreyer announced her withdrawal from the federal executive of the SPD in order to focus on state politics and the upcoming state election. She had served as co-deputy leader of the federal party since 2017, and was joint acting leader from June to December 2019 after the resignation of leader Andrea Nahles. The announcement came after the 2019 leadership election which saw Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans chosen as Nahles' successors. Rhineland-Palatinate state party leader Roger Lewentz stated: "[Dreyer] is the best Minister-President for Rhineland-Palatinate. In the coming year we will do everything we can to ensure that she can continue to hold her post even after the state election in 2021."[14] She was formally confirmed as lead candidate on 7 December 2020.[15]

On 19 August 2020, the state FDP executive chose State Secretary for Economic Affairs Daniela Schmitt as their lead candidate for the election.[16]

On 5 September, AfD announced their list of candidates for the election. State leader Michael Frisch was the lead candidate.[17]

Joachim Streit was the lead candidate for the Free Voters.[18]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Шаблон:Wide image

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD CDU AfD FDP Grüne Linke FW Others Lead
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
2021 state election 14 Mar 2021 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 35.7 27.7 8.3 5.5 9.3 2.5 5.4 5.7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8.0
INSA 11–12 Mar 2021 1,354 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 32 29 10 7 10 3 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 8–11 Mar 2021 1,735 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 33 29 9 6.5 10 3 5 4.5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
INSA 1–8 Mar 2021 1,501 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 10 6 12 3 4 5 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 2021 998 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 33 29 9 7 11 3 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
Infratest dimap 1–3 Mar 2021 1,186 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 30 28 9 9 12 3 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Infratest dimap 19–23 Feb 2021 1,000 30 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 9 7 12 3 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
INSA 15–22 Feb 2021 1,304 31 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 9 6 12 3 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Feb 2021 1,022 31 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 7 5 13 4 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
INSA 13–19 Jan 2021 1,006 30 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 9 6 14 3 3 2 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jan 2021 1,001 28 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 8 6 15 3 7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Infratest dimap 4–8 Dec 2020 1,002 28 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 9 5 15 3 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
INSA 13–20 Oct 2020 1,013 27 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 10 5 14 5 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
Infratest dimap 4–8 Sep 2020 1,005 26 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 9 6 17 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
Infratest dimap 20–21 Apr 2020 1,003 27 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 38 8 6 13 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11
INSA 16–30 Mar 2020 1,045 24 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 12 5 19 5 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
Infratest dimap 27 Feb–3 Mar 2020 1,001 26 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 27 11 7 18 6 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Infratest dimap 5–10 Dec 2019 1,002 26 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 30 13 7 16 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
INSA 9–16 Sep 2019 1,012 22 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 12 8 20 4 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
Infratest dimap 5–9 Sep 2019 1,001 23 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 11 8 21 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Infratest dimap 14–18 Mar 2019 1,000 24 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 11 10 14 6 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
Forsa 1–8 Feb 2019 1,005 26 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 10 8 14 5 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Infratest dimap 10–11 Dec 2018 1,001 24 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 13 7 16 4 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
Infratest dimap 11–15 Oct 2018 1,003 24 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 28 13 8 18 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
Infratest dimap 14–18 Jun 2018 1,004 29 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 31 13 7 11 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Infratest dimap 5–7 Mar 2018 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 37 33 8 7 8 3 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
INSA 2–8 Jan 2018 1,517 33 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 34 10 7 7 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2017 1,003 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 38 37 6 7 6 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1
Infratest dimap 7–11 Sep 2017 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 36 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 36 8 6 6 4 4 Tie
GESS Phone & Field 6–17 Jul 2017 1,002 33 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 37 8 7 6 3 2 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2017 1,000 32 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 37 8 7 7 5 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
Infratest dimap 2–6 Mar 2017 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 40 35 7 6 6 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
GESS Phone & Field 9–19 Dec 2016 1,002 34 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 36 11 5 5 3 2 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2016 1,000 32 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 36 10 9 5 4 4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jul 2016 1,004 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 33 Шаблон:Party shading/CDU| 33 10 7 8 4 5 Tie
GESS Phone & Field 13–20 Jun 2016 1,004 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 36 31 12 6 6 3 3 3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 36.2 31.8 12.6 6.2 5.3 2.8 2.2 2.8 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.4

Minister-President polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Файл:WLP RLP 9648 Malu Dreyer.jpg Файл:2017-10-17 Grundsteinlegung Landtag Rheinland-Pfalz by Olaf Kosinsky-79 cropped.jpg Файл:2016-12-06 Christian Baldauf CDU Parteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-8.jpg Файл:2016-11-17 - Anne Spiegel - 0545.jpg None/Unsure Lead
Шаблон:Nowrap
SPD
Шаблон:Nowrap
CDU
Шаблон:Nowrap
CDU
Шаблон:Nowrap
Grüne
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 2021 998 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 59 28 13 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 31
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive 1–3 Mar 2021 1,186 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 53 29 18 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 24
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive 19–23 Feb 2021 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 56 28 16 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 28
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Feb 2021 1,022 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 59 23 18 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 36
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive 4–8 Dec 2020 1,002 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 54 18 5 9 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 36
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive 4–8 Sep 2020 1,005 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 55 15 3 11 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 40
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive 27 Feb–3 Mar 2020 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 57 17 4 11 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 40
Infratest dimap Шаблон:Webarchive [19] 5–7 Mar 2018 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 56 31 5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 25
Infratest dimap 8–12 Dec 2017 1,003 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 56 30 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 26
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2017 1,000 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 50 31 9 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 19
Infratest dimap 2–6 Mar 2017 1,001 Шаблон:Party shading/SPD| 52 34 6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 18

Preferred coalition

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Assessment SPD
Grüne
CDU
Grüne
SPD
Grüne
FDP
CDU
Grüne
FDP
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Mar 2021 998 Positive Шаблон:Party shading/SPD colspan="2"| 40 31 30 21
Negative Шаблон:Party shading/SPD colspan="2"| 39 47 45 53
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Шаблон:Webarchive 1–4 Feb 2021 1,022 Positive Шаблон:Party shading/SPD colspan="2"| 40 37 30 26
Negative Шаблон:Party shading/SPD colspan="2"| 35 37 45 46

Results

Файл:Landtagswahl 2021 Rheinland-Pfalz Erststimmenergebnis.svg
Map of results by constituency (Wahlkreis)
Файл:2021 Rhineland-Palatinate state election - composition chart.svg
Party Constituency Party list Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Swing Seats
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 618,176 32.2 28 690,962 35.7 Шаблон:Decrease 0.5 11 39 Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 604,088 31.4 23 535,318 27.7 Шаблон:Decrease 4.1 8 31 Шаблон:Decrease 4
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 210,022 10.9 1 179,860 9.3 Шаблон:Increase 4.0 9 10 Шаблон:Increase 4
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Alternative for Germany (AfD) 145,383 7.6 0 160,293 8.3 Шаблон:Decrease 4.3 9 9 Шаблон:Decrease 5
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Free Democratic Party (FDP) 115,530 6.0 0 106,809 5.5 Шаблон:Decrease 0.7 6 6 Шаблон:Decrease 1
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Free Voters (FW) 143,940 7.5 0 103,619 5.4 Шаблон:Increase 3.2 6 6 Шаблон:Increase 6
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| The Left (LINKE) 54,139 2.8 0 48,206 2.5 Шаблон:Decrease 0.3 0 0 Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Human Environment Animal Protection 32,527 1.7 New 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Die PARTEI 8,402 0.4 0 20,519 1.1 New 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Volt Germany 1,497 0.1 0 19,286 1.0 New 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Climate List RLP 9,477 0.5 0 13,681 0.7 New 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Ecological Democratic Party 8,198 0.4 0 13,406 0.7 Шаблон:Increase 0.3 0 0 Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Pirate Party Germany 1,820 0.1 0 10,393 0.5 Шаблон:Decrease 0.3 0 0 Шаблон:Steady 0
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany 229 0.0 0 0 New
bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color| Independents 1,678 0.1 0 0 Шаблон:Steady 0
Total 1,922,579 100.0 52 1,934,879 100.0 49 101 Шаблон:Steady 0
Invalid/blank votes 34,770 1.8 22,470 1.1
Registered voters/turnout 3,042,414 64.3 3,042,414 64.3 Шаблон:Decrease 6.1
Source: State Returning Officer Шаблон:Webarchive

Шаблон:Bar box Шаблон:Bar box

Aftermath

The result was considered a victory for the SPD, contrasting a long string of losses in other state, federal, and local elections since 2018.[4] Their success was attributed to the popularity of incumbent Minister-President Dreyer during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.[20][21] After the election, the SPD's federal Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz voiced his support for a "traffic light" coalition on the federal level.[2]

The CDU's poorer-than-expected result was attributed in part to local factors, such as Dreyer's popularity and the difficulty faced by the opposition when campaigning during pandemic conditions.[21][22] Commentators also pointed to federal factors, such as the unpopularity of newly-elected federal CDU chairman Armin Laschet, poor management of the pandemic by federal government, and particularly the "mask scandal" which broke a few days before the election.[20][4] The result was perceived as harming the CDU/CSU's standing ahead of the September federal election, and damaging Laschet's chances of being selected as the Union's candidate for Chancellor.[20]

Government formation

Minister-President Malu Dreyer quickly voiced her desire to continue the coalition between the SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats. State FDP chairman Volker Wissing made similar comments.[4] The three parties began exploratory talks on 18 March.[23] On 30 April, they announced they had agreed to renew the coalition.[5]

On 18 May, Dreyer was elected as Minister-President for a third term by the Landtag. She won 55 votes, more than the 51 needed for an absolute majority. The new ministry was sworn in the same day, comprising six SPD, two Green, and two FDP ministers.[6]

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Шаблон:2021 elections in Germany Шаблон:Rhineland-Palatinate state elections