Английская Википедия:2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox electionШаблон:ElectionsCO The 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jared Polis won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl in a landslide. The primary election was held on June 28.[1]
Polis's 2022 victory marked the first time in American history that an openly gay politician was re-elected governor of a state.[2] Polis had the best performance for a re-elected Colorado governor since Bill Owens in 2002, the best for a Democrat since Roy Romer in 1990, and the highest raw vote total ever in a Colorado gubernatorial race.
Democratic convention
Candidates
Nominated at convention
- Jared Polis, incumbent governor[3]
- Running mate: Dianne Primavera, incumbent lieutenant governor[3]
Eliminated at convention
- Dustin Rorex[4]
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Heidi Ganahl, member of the Regents of the University of Colorado[5][6]
- Running mate: Danny Moore, businessman[7]
Eliminated in primary
- Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker and former director of the Small Business Administration for Colorado; candidate for governor in 2018 and for U.S. Senate in 2016[8][9]
Eliminated at convention
- Laurie Clark[8]
- Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran[10]
- Jon Gray-Ginsberg[8]
- Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor[8]
- Jim Rundberg, U.S. Army veteran, independent candidate for governor in 2014, and Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2016[8][11]
Declined
- Guy Benson, political pundit, Fox News contributor, and political editor for Townhall[12]
- Ken Buck, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr, former chair of the Colorado Republican Party, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010[13]
- Bill Owens, former governor of Colorado (endorsed Ganahl)[14]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
American Constitution convention
Candidates
Nominee
- Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor (previously ran for Republican nomination)[15]
- Running mate: Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran (previously ran for Republican nomination)[16]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 29, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 12, 2022 |
| Politico[20] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 20, 2022 |
| Fox News[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 31, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jared Polis (D) |
Heidi Ganahl (R) |
Other Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 26 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53.0% | 42.3% | 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Polis +10.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | June 8 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54.1% | 41.8% | 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Polis +12.3 |
| 270ToWin | November 1–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54.0% | 42.0% | 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Polis +12.0 |
| Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53.7% | 42.0% | 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Polis +11.7 | ||
- Graphical summary
- Jared Polis vs. Greg Lopez
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Greg Lopez (R) |
Danielle Шаблон:Nowrap |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Efn-ua | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | 32% | 6% | 10% |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53% | 39% | – | 8% |
- Jared Polis vs. Danielle Neuschwanger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Danielle Шаблон:Nowrap |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 11–15, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 40% | 9% |
- Jared Polis vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 2–8, 2022 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% | 38% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 11–15, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54% | 38% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | January 12–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 3.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 44% | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 39% | 12% |
Debates
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key:
Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color" | | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color" | | ||||
| Jared Polis | Heidi Ganahl | |||||
| 2 | Oct. 14, 2022 | CBS Colorado | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | ||
Results
Шаблон:AlignШаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box turnoutШаблон:Election box registered electorsШаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Grand (Largest city: Granby)
- Las Animas (Largest city: Trinidad)
By congressional district
Polis won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[25]
Analysis
Incumbent governor Jared Polis easily won re-election by 19.3%, a margin much larger than aggregate polling predicted. Polis piled up massive margins in the heavily populous North Central Colorado Urban Area, which contains the state capital Denver plus its surrounding suburbs Aurora, Thornton, Lakewood, and Broomfield; in addition to other major cities Boulder and Fort Collins, home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Outside the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins region, Polis also won a long row of counties along the Rocky Mountains from Routt in the north to La Plata in the south, which contains a number of liberal leaning ski resort towns like Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs. In Southern Colorado, a region historically known for coal mining, and home to a sizable Hispanic population, Polis managed to halt the decline in support for Democrats that had been taking place here since the mid-2010s in both state and federal races. Polis also won the relatively conservative city of Colorado Springs, the first Democrat to do so in recent history, along with greatly increasing his vote share in conservative-leaning urban counties compared to 2018.[26] Polis's definitive victory likely helped other Democrats down the ballot to win their races or win them by comfortable margins, allowing Democrats to keep control of the state government.[27]
Heidi Ganahl did best in the traditionally rural areas of Colorado bordering Kansas in the east, Utah in the west, and several larger counties including Weld (Greeley), Douglas (Castle Rock and Highlands Ranch), and El Paso (Colorado Springs). In the latter two counties, Ganahl significantly underperformed previous Republican nominees in these traditionally conservative urban counties, winning Douglas by 0.38% and El Paso by 3.97%, the closest either county had come to voting Democratic since 1994 and 1982 respectively. Ganahl failed to appeal to the large unaffiliated bloc of state voters along with political moderates. During her campaign, she highlighted her opposition to abortion (at odds with most Colorado voters), utilized incendiary right-wing rhetoric in regards to several social and cultural issues, and courted figures involved with pushing conspiracy theories about elections.[28][29]
Prior to the election, an article by Daniel Strain from the University of Colorado reported that 71% of Colorado voters said their state's elections will be conducted "fairly and accurately", while 54% said the same for other elections across the United States. 53% of voters also disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization to overturn Roe v. Wade. 63% of voters said Joe Biden won the 2020 election, although Biden had a 52% disapproval among Centennial State voters compared to 39% who approved of him.[30]
Despite Biden's low approval, a Marist poll conducted in October found that amongst 1,221 Colorado adults, Governor Polis had a 50% approval, while Ganahl suffered from low name recognition, with 42% having either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. The same poll also found that 34% of voters were most concerned about inflation, followed by preserving democracy at 29%, abortion at 16%, crime at 7%, followed by healthcare and immigration at 6% each.[31]
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Heidi Ganahl (R) for Governor
- Danielle Neuschwanger (C) for Governor
- Jared Polis (D) for Governor
- Kevin Ruskusky (L) for Governor
Шаблон:2022 United States elections Шаблон:Colorado elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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