Английская Википедия:2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsKS The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term, facing Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election.

This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly.

Kelly won re-election to a second term. This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present)
  • Running mate: David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present)

Eliminated in primary

• Richard Karnowski, accountant
  • Running mate: Barry Franco

Results

Файл:2022 Kansas gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General (2011–2023)
  • Running mate: Katie Sawyer, political staffer

Eliminated in primary

• Arlyn Briggs, perennial candidate
  • Running mate: Lance Berland, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020

Withdrew

• Jeff Colyer, former governor (2018–2019) and former lieutenant governor (2011–2018) (endorsed Schmidt)
• Chase LaPorte, businessman

Declined

• Wink Hartman, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018
• Kris Kobach, former Kansas Secretary of State (2011–2019), nominee for governor in 2018, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for Kansas Attorney General)
• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator (2011–present) (running for re-election)
• Ron Ryckman Jr., Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives (2017–2023) from the 78th District (2013–2023) (endorsed Schmidt)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jeff Colyer	Ron Шаблон:Nowrap	Derek Schmidt	Undecided
Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	March 3–4, 2021	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	19%	5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |28%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided |49%

Results

Файл:2022 Kansas gubernatorial Republican primary.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Independent

Candidates

Declared

• Dennis Pyle, state senator from the 1st district, former Republican (2005–present)
  • Kathleen Garrison, Clearwater school board member

General election

Campaign

Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement. In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women. When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.

Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education, where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters. Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general. In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals". Other issues include criminal justice and transgender people in sports.

Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority. The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform. Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process. Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general. In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people". Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate. In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 26, 2022
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2022
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	August 12, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	August 3, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 25, 2022
538	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 13, 2022
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Laura Kelly (D)	Derek Schmidt (R)	Other Шаблон:Efn	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	August 10 – October 29, 2022	November 2, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48.6%	43.5%	7.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Kelly +5.1

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Laura Kelly (D)	Derek Schmidt (R)	Dennis Pyle (I)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46%	43%	5%	2%Шаблон:Efn	4%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49%	44%	5%	2%Шаблон:Efn	–
Jayhawk Consulting (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 10–12, 2022	500 (LV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|38%	37%	7%	–	18%
Emerson College	September 15–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	43%	3%	1%Шаблон:Efn	8%
Echelon InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua	August 31 – September 7, 2022	392 (LV)	± 7.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53%	41%	–	–	5%
Battleground Connect (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	August 8–10, 2022	1,074 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48%	2%	–	5%
WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 26–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47%	–	–	10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	September 13–15, 2021	810 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47%	44%	–	–	9%
Remington Research Group (R)	September 7–9, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44%	–	–	16%

Debates and forums

2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums

Шаблон:Abbr	Date	Host	Moderator	Location	Link	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Independent
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee  Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn							scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|	scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|	scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
						Derek Schmidt	Laura Kelly	Seth Cordell	Dennis Pyle
1	September 7, 2022	Kansas Chamber of Commerce	–	Olathe	Шаблон:Efn	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes	N	N
2	September 10, 2022	WIBW-FM	Greg Akagi	Hutchinson	Youtube	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes	N	N
3	October 5, 2022	Kansas City PBS/ Johnson County Bar Association	Nick Haines	Overland Park	Youtube	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes	N	N

Results and analysis

Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box totalШаблон:Election box turnoutШаблон:Election box hold with party link no swingШаблон:Election box end Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas.

Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden. Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas. Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%, receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Crawford (Largest city: Pittsburg)
• Harvey (Largest city: Newton)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Geary (Largest city: Junction City)

Файл:Kelly 2022 vote no radar chart.png

Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance with Vote No in 2022 Kansas abortion referendum

By congressional district

Kelly won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.

District	Kelly	Schmidt	Other	Representative
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr	44%	52%	4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Tracey Mann
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr	49%	48%	3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Jake LaTurner
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr	57%	40%	3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |Sharice Davids
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr	46%	51%	3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Ron Estes

See also

• Elections in Kansas
• Political party strength in Kansas
• Kansas Democratic Party
• Kansas Republican Party
• Government of Kansas
• 2022 United States Senate election in Kansas
• 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas
• 2022 Kansas House of Representatives election
• 2022 Kansas elections
• 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2022 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Seth Cordell (L) for Governor
• Laura Kelly (D) for Governor
• Dennis Pyle (I) for Governor
• Derek Schmidt (R) for Governor