Английская Википедия:2022 New York's 3rd congressional district election

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The 2022 New York's 3rd congressional district election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the United States Representative for New York's 3rd congressional district. Primary elections were held on August 23.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Robert Zimmerman, Democratic National Committee member and communications professional

Eliminated in primary

• Melanie D'Arrigo, health care consultant and candidate for this district in 2020
• Jon Kaiman, former North Hempstead supervisor, former chairman of the Nassau Interim Finance Authority, and candidate for this district in 2016
• Josh Lafazan, Nassau County Legislator for the 18th district
• Reema Rasool, candidate for Oyster Bay Town Council in 2021

Withdrawn

• Alessandra Biaggi, State Senator from the 34th district (2019–present) (ran in the 17th district)

Declined

• Thomas Suozzi, incumbent U.S. representative (ran unsuccessfully for Democratic nomination for governor of New York)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Melanie D'Arrigo	Jon Kaiman	Josh Lafazan	Reema Rasool	Robert Zimmerman	Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 20–24, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	12%	13%	10%	1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|17%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|48%
The Mellman Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	June 12–16, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	4%	20%	20%	4%	10%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|43%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• George Santos, former call center employee, and nominee for this district in 2020

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2022
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2022
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 27, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	June 9, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 11, 2022
DDHQ	Шаблон:USRaceRating	August 10, 2022
FiveThirtyEight	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 30, 2022
The Economist	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 28, 2022

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Robert Zimmerman (D)	George Santos (R)	Other	Undecided
RMG Research	August 27 – September 2, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42%	41%	4%	14%

Josh Lafazan vs. George Santos vs. Melanie D'Arrigo

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Josh Lafazan (D)	George Santos (R)	Melanie D'Arrigo (WFP)	Undecided
co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 11–12, 2022	714 (LV)	± 3.7%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44%	8%	15%

Aftermath

In the wake of the disclosures about Santos after the election, Democratic Party officials and journalists asked whether Santos would have been elected had voters known about his misrepresentations. FiveThirtyEight noted that Santos's margin of victory was lower than Republicans running statewide who had carried the district—7.5 percent compared to Zeldin's 12 percent, for instance; Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joe Pinion carried the district by a 4 percent margin despite being vastly outspent by his victorious opponent, incumbent Senate majority leader Charles Schumer. The site's calculations suggest that scandals usually reduce an incumbent congressional candidate's margins by 9 percent, but there are so many other variables in elections that it cannot be assumed Santos would have lost just on that basis; sometimes candidates have actually done better than expected after a scandal, and scandal may have less effect in a time of hyperpartisan political identification.

Newsday found that Santos had also benefited from higher-than-usual Republican turnout on Long Island resulting from Zeldin's gubernatorial bid (Zeldin received 47 percent of the vote, the best performance in the state by a Republican candidate for governor since George Pataki in 2002), with 64 percent of the party's voters, 12 percent more than usual, showing up at the polls. "This was not about George Santos", Nassau County Republican chairman Joe Cairo told the paper, noting that Republican candidates, flipped seats in the state legislature in both Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as the congressional seats. "This was a Republican year. Any Republican would have won that district."

Had the state legislature's original redistricting plan been in place at the time of the election, Newsday found, it was likely that the Democratic candidate would have won the 3rd district. That plan, ruled unconstitutional by the state's Court of Appeals, its highest, would have combined the core of the old district on the North Shore and in neighboring Queens with heavily Democratic portions of Westchester County along the north coast of Long Island Sound. That potential district had voted for Biden in 2020 by a 57 percent margin, while the eventual 3rd district had done so by 54 percent, one percent less than the 2020 3rd district. Yet Democrats actually gained about 7,000 voters registered to them from the redistricting.

Cairo discounted the effect of the redistricting. His Democratic counterpart, Jay Jacobs (also the state party chair), agreed. Adding Massapequa to the district at the expense of Huntington had cost "maybe a couple of thousand votes" out of the 20,000 Santos won by. "What did this was the overriding message problem we had on crime and bail reform, the fever pitch those were at in the New York suburbs", Jacobs said. "Santos didn't get elected based on his outstanding resume and he didn't get elected because of redistricting. He got elected because the political environment in New York State favored the Republican messaging." His election made him the first LGBT non-incumbent Republican elected to federal office.

Criminal investigation and expulsion

On December 19, 2022, the New York Times found Republican candidate George Santos might have misrepresented his resume. On December 26, in an interview, Santos admitted to lying about his resume but stated he still intends to serve in Congress. The next day, the Republican Jewish Coalition condemned Santos for misrepresenting his heritage. On January 31, 2023, amid outcry from his fabrication of his personal life, and amidst questions about his campaign finances, Santos withdrew from his committee assignments.

On May 10, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York indicted Santos on seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, two counts of making materially false statements to the House and one count of theft of public funds. On October 10, Santos’s previous indictment was replaced with one of 23 various counts, including charging $44,000 of cards from contributors of his campaign without their knowledge.

On November 1, a vote to expel Santos from the house failed 179-213. However, on November 16, the Ethics Committee released a report on Santos that found significant evidence of wrongdoing, finding he exploited his House campaign for his own benefit. On December 1, Santos was expelled in a 311-114 vote. As a result, a special election will be held on February 13, 2024 to fill the vacancy, which could provide a crucial pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Notes

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