Английская Википедия:2022 Texas gubernatorial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use American English Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Texas sidebar
The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee and former Congressman, Beto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]
The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.
Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott, but a failed run for President of the United States in 2020 prompted criticisms of opportunism, via Republican attempts to brand him as anti-law enforcement and his former comments on guns.
Abbott won re-election by 10.9%, which is a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.
Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties in his re-election victory, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.
Republican primary
On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas Attorney General[10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- Paul G. Belew, criminal defense attorney[12]
- Danny Harrison, businessman[13]
- Kandy Kaye Horn, philanthropist[14][15]
- Don Huffines, former member of the Texas Senate[16]
- Ricky Lynn Perry, staffing agency employee[17]
- Chad Prather, BlazeTV talk show host, activist, and stand-up comedian[18]
- Allen West, former chair of the Texas Republican Party and former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr[7][19]
Withdrawn
- Martin Holsome, former Rusk city councillor[20]
- Kurt Schwab, military veteran[18]Шаблон:Failed verification
Declined
- George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and member of the Bush family (ran for Attorney General)[21][22][23]
- Christi Craddick, Texas Railroad Commissioner[21]
- Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts (running for re-election)[24]
- Sid Miller, Texas Agriculture Commissioner (running for re-election)[22]
- Rick Perry, former governor and former U.S. Secretary of Energy[17]
- Joe Straus, former Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives[25]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Шаблон:Nowrap Perry |
Chad Prather |
Allen West |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 25–28, 2022 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|62% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|61% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|60% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 15% |
| YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|60% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | January 31, 2022 | 1,542 (LV) | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|34% | 5% | 6% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 514 (LV) | ± 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|59% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 20% |
| YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 17% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | January 9, 2022 | 1,486 (LV) | ± 2.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | 5% | 12% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | December 16, 2021 | 447 (LV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | 2% | 15% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|35% | – | 14% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 3% | – | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36% | – | 17% |
| UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|65% | 3% | – | 6% | 6% | 3% | 18% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 11, 2021 | – (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 3% | – | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | – | 19% |
| YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|56% | 7% | – | 4% | 13% | 4% | 16% |
| YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|61% | 4% | – | 3% | 13% | – | 19% |
| UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 427 (LV) | ± 6.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|70% | 15% | – | – | – | 15% | – |
| 431 (LV) | ± 6.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|65% | – | – | – | 20% | 15% | – | ||
| Victory Insights (R) | July 22–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|80% | – | – | – | 20% | – | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|73% | – | – | – | 17% | – | 10% |
| UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 440 (LV) | ± 5.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|77% | 12% | – | – | – | 11% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Sid Miller |
Allen West |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 14–17, 2021 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|69% | 3% | 3% | 13% | – |
Results
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[26]
Eliminated in primary
- Inocencio Barrientez, fitness trainer[14]
- Michael Cooper, pastor, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2018, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[27]
- Joy Diaz, reporter[28]
- Rich Wakeland, former advisor to Public Utility Commissioner Ken Anderson[29][30]
Disqualified
Declined
- Steve Adler, Mayor of Austin[31]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr[32] (endorsed O’Rourke)[33]
- Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former mayor of San Antonio, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[34]
- Wendy Davis, former state senator, nominee for governor in 2014, and nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020[35]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr, former El Paso commissioner, and former El Paso county judge (running for re-election)[36]
- Lina Hidalgo, Harris County judge[37][38]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Inocencio Barrientez |
Michael Cooper |
Joy Diaz |
Jack Шаблон:Nowrap |
Deirdre Gilbert |
Star Locke |
Beto O'Rourke |
Rich Wakeland |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 388 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|78% | 2% | – | 11% |
| UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 479 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|68% | 2% | – | 14% |
| YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 348 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|93% | 1% | 1% | – |
| UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 459 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58% | 0% | – | 27% |
| YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | 616 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|73% | 1% | – | 16% |
| YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 436 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|70% | – | 5% | 25% |
Results
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Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Delilah Barrios, environmental activist[39]
Libertarian convention
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018[40]
Withdrew/disqualified
- Dan Behrman, software engineer, internet personality, candidate for Texas House of Representatives in 2014, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[41][42]
- Andrew Jewell, industrial maintenance technician, Secretary of Libertarian Party of Dallas County, Chair of Texas Libertarian Party Radical Caucus, and candidate for Dallas County Commissioner District 3 in 2020.[42]
Independents and other parties
Candidates
Declared
- Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert, public educator (previously ran for Democratic nomination)[43][14][44]
- Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired educator and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[45]Шаблон:Better source needed
Disqualified
- Patrick Wynne, software engineer, data scientist and U.S. Navy veteran (Reform Party)[46]Шаблон:Better source needed
Declined
- Matthew McConaughey, Academy Award-winning actor[47][48] (no declared party affiliation)[49]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[50] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[51] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | June 29, 2022 |
| Politico[53] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[54] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[55] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[56] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 21, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[57] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key:
Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color" | | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color" | | ||||
| Greg Abbott | Beto O'Rourke | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 30, 2022 | KXAN-TV | Sally Hernandez Gromer Jeffers Steve Spriester |
KXAN-TV | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 3–19, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 52.8% | 43.5% | 3.7% | Abbott +9.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 51.4% | 42.9% | 5.7% | Abbott +8.5 |
| Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Abbott +8.9 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 2–5, 2022 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 42% | 2% | 3% |
| UT Tyler | October 17–24, 2022 | 1,330 (RV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 44% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| 973 (LV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 44% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | ||
| Emerson College | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 42% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 44% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | – | ||||
| Siena College | October 16–19, 2022 | 649 (LV) | ± 5.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 43% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| Beacon Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 15–19, 2022 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 45% | – | – |
| BSP Research/UTШаблон:Efn-ua | October 11–18, 2022 | 1,400 (RV) | ± 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 42% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| YouGov/UT | October 7–17, 2022 | 833 (LV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 43% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Civiqs | October 8–11, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 44% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 0% |
| Marist College | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 45% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| 898 (LV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 44% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 4% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 2.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 46% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Emerson College | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 42% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| ActiVote | June 23 – September 21, 2022 | 323 (LV) | ± 6.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 40% | 12%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Siena College | September 14–18, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 43% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | September 6–15, 2022 | 1,172 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 44% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| UT Tyler | September 7–13, 2022 | 1,268 (RV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 38% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 2–9, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 45% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| YouGov/UT | August 26 – September 6, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 40% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 11% |
| YouGov/UH/TSU | August 11–29, 2022 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 2.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 42% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 7% |
| UT Tyler | August 1–7, 2022 | 1,384 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 39% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| 1,215 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 42% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | ||
| YouGov/UH | June 27 – July 7, 2022 | 1,169 (RV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 42% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 44% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 5% | ||
| YouGov/CBS News | June 22–27, 2022 | 548 (LV) | ± 6.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| YouGov/UT | June 16–24, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 39% | 6%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| YouGov/PerryUndem | June 15–24, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 43% | 3% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 9–13, 2022 | 1,257 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|56% | 37% | – | 7% |
| UT Tyler | May 2–10, 2022 | 1,232 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 39% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| YouGov/UT | April 14–22, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 37% | 7% | 9% |
| YouGov/TXHPF | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 42% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| Texas Lyceum | March 11–20, 2022 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 40% | 7% | 11% |
| Emerson College | February 21–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| UT Tyler | February 8–15, 2022 | 1,188 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 38% | 16% | 1% |
| Climate Nexus | February 1–9, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| YouGov/UT | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 37% | 6% | 11% |
| UT Tyler | January 18–25, 2022 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 36% | 16% | 1% |
| YouGov/UH | January 14–24, 2022 | – (LV)Шаблон:Efn | –Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 43% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University | December 2–6, 2021 | 1,224 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 37% | 4% | 6% |
| UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 39% | 16% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 39% | 5% | 7% |
| 854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 5% | 6% | ||
| YouGov/UT/TT | October 22–31, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 37% | 7% | 10% |
| YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 42% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 37% | 21% | – |
| UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 33% | 22% | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 14–17, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 42% | – | 6% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Julián Castro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 35% | 4% | 9% |
| 854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 39% | 4% | 8% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Matthew McConaughey (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 39% | 13% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|37% | 26% | 27% | 10% | – |
| YouGov/TXHPF | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 37% | 9% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Don Huffines |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 22% | 32% |
- Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Matthew McConaughey |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|43% | 22% |
| UT Tyler | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|44% | 21% |
| UT Tyler | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% | 38% | 23% |
| UT Tyler | April 6–13, 2021 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|45% | 22% |
- Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 34% | 20% |
- Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | September 24–27, 2021 | 863 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|51% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 15–21, 2021 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|48% | 6% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box totalШаблон:Election box turnoutШаблон:Election box registered electors Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Fort Bend (Largest city: Sugar Land)
By congressional district
Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[58]
Analysis
While Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, one did not materialize. Abbott won by about 10.9 points, a margin slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties, mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. 34 counties, in particular, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote, the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.
Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, and San Antonio–New Braunfels. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin. In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength has declined some in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.
O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6% - 25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4% - 35%; Dallas (62.8% - 35.9%); Bexar (57.5% - 41.1%); and Harris (54% - 44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5% - 43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.
Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley along the U.S. border with Mexico, but his performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but did slightly outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).
Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58% - 41%) and female voters (51% - 48%), whites (66% - 33%), voters over 45 (60% - 39%), college graduates (52% - 47%) and non-college graduates (56% - 43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94% - 5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84% - 15%), Latinos (57% - 40%), Asians (52% - 48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54% - 44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60% - 38%).[59][60][61]
Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%) and other minorities (53%-42%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) and Latina women (61%-37%). O'Rourke also won Latino men (55%-45%). Fox News Voter Analysis
See also
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas
- 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2022 Texas State Senate election
- 2022 Texas House of Representatives election
- 2022 Texas elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Greg Abbott (R) for Governor
- Delilah Barrios (G) for Governor
- Deirdre Gilbert (I) for Governor
- Beto O'Rourke (D) for Governor
- Mark Tippetts (L) for Governor
Шаблон:2022 United States elections Шаблон:Elections in Texas footer
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