Английская Википедия:2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont

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Шаблон:Elections in Vermont The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as various other state and local elections.

Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in 2020. After eight-term U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate. On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont since Bernie Sanders ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Democratic nominee Becca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of the United States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election, Liam Madden, won the Republican nomination but identifies as an independent who opposes the two-party system. Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; the Vermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign. Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of the Libertarian Party.

Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to the United States Congress after Mississippi elected its first woman in 2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point.

Democratic primary

Файл:MollyGrayCrop.jpg

Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

• Becca Balint, state senator (2015–2023) and Vermont Senate president pro tempore (2021–2023)

Eliminated in primary

• Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2021–2023)
• Louis Meyers, physician at Rutland Regional Medical Center

Withdrew

• Sianay Chase Clifford, former aide to U.S. Representative Ayanna Pressley
• Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016 (endorsed Balint; running for re-election)

Declined

• T. J. Donovan, Vermont Attorney General (2017–2022)
• Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (2021–present)
• Deborah Markowitz, former Vermont Secretary of State (1999-2011)
• Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–present)Шаблон:Efn (running for state senate)
• Peter Welch, incumbent U.S. Representative (2007–present) (running for U.S. Senate)

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Becca Balint	Шаблон:Nowrap Clifford	Molly Gray	Louis Meyers	Kesha Ram	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	July 27 – August 1, 2022	383 (LV)	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|59%	1%	27%	1%	–	–	12%
University of New Hampshire	July 21–25, 2022	352 (LV)	± 5.2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|63%	–	21%	2%	–	0%	13%
	July 19, 2022	Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race
	May 27, 2022	Kesha Ram drops out of the race
University of New Hampshire	April 14–18, 2022	278 (LV)	± 5.9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|28%	0%	21%	–	19%	1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|31%
VPR/Vermont PBS	January 3–9, 2022	418 (LV)	± 4.8%	11%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|31%	–	0%	12%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|47%

Results

Файл:2022 United States House of Representatives Democratic primary election in Vermont results map by municipality.svg

Democratic primary results by municipality Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Legend

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Liam Madden, former leader of About Face: Veterans Against the War

Eliminated in primary

• Ericka Redic, businesswoman and community activist
• Anya Tynio, sales representative, nominee for this district in 2018 and candidate in 2020

Declined

• Felisha Leffler, state representative (2019–present)
• Heidi Scheuermann, state representative (2007–present)
• Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (2017–present) (running for re-election)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Liam Madden	Ericka Redic	Anya Tynio	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	July 21–25, 2022	196 (LV)	± 7.0%	14%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|15%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|61%

Results

Liam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner. The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election. Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of the Libertarian Party of Vermont. Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

• Barbara Nolfi, clinic co-founder

Declined

• Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–present) (running for state senate)

Independents and other parties

Файл:Ericka and Benjamin Redic on Generally Irritable (closer crop).jpg

Businesswoman Ericka Redic, the runner-up in the Republican primary, was the Libertarian nominee.

Candidates

Declared

• Matt Druzba (independent)
• Adam Ortiz
• Ericka Redic (Libertarian), businesswoman and community activist (previously Republican)
• Luke Talbot

Withdrawn

• Bryan Braga (Communist)

General election

Debate

2022 Vermont U.S. House of Representatives debate

Шаблон:Abbr	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Democratic	Republican
Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Not invited  Шаблон:Colors Invited Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn					scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|	scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|
					Becca Balint	Liam Madden
1	Oct. 11, 2022	Vermont Public	Connor Cyrus	YouTube	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 5, 2021
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 5, 2021
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 5, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	June 9, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 11, 2022
DDHQ	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 20, 2022
538	Шаблон:USRaceRating	June 30, 2022

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Becca Balint (D)	Liam Madden (R)	Ericka Redic (L)	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	October 21–26, 2022	1,039 (LV)	± 3.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54%	29%	5%	3%Шаблон:Efn	9%
University of New Hampshire	September 29 – October 3, 2022	765 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|57%	19%	9%	11%Шаблон:Efn	12%

Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Becca Balint (D)	Marcia Horne (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	April 14–18, 2022	583 (LV)	± 4.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48%	25%	0%	26%

Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Шаблон:Nowrap Clifford (D)	Marcia Horne (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	April 14–18, 2022	583 (LV)	± 4.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42%	25%	0%	33%

Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Molly Gray (D)	Marcia Horne (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	April 14–18, 2022	583 (LV)	± 4.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49%	27%	1%	23%

Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Kesha Ram (D)	Marcia Horne (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	April 14–18, 2022	583 (LV)	± 4.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47%	26%	0%	27%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Essex (largest city: Lunenburg)

External links

Campaign websites

• Becca Balint (D) for Congress
• Matt Druzba (I) for Congress
• Liam Madden (R) for Congress
• Ericka Redic (L) for Congress