Английская Википедия:2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNM The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the New Mexico gubernatorial election and various state and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0. Шаблон:Horizontal TOC

Redistricting

Process

In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.

On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district.

Targeting of the 2nd district

In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."

The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad. After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8.

Legislature's map

On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas." The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%. Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%.

District 1

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca, and Lincoln, as well as eastern Bernalillo County and most of Albuquerque. Democrat Deb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020, resigned on March 16, 2021, after she was confirmed to become the U.S. Secretary of the Interior. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021 special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Melanie Stansbury, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021–present)

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Michelle Garcia Holmes, retired police detective, nominee for this district in 2020, and candidate in the 2021 special election

Eliminated in primary

• Louie Sanchez, small business owner

Disqualified

• Joshua Neal, city planner
• Jacquelyn Reeve, nurse practitioner

General election

Debates and forums

2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district general election debates and forums

Шаблон:Abbr	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee  Шаблон:Colors InviteeШаблон:Color box Withdrawn
					Garcia Holmes	Stansbury
1	October 14, 2022	KOB 4	Tessa Mentus & Matt Grubs	YouTube	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 27, 2022
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 27, 2022
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 18, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 30, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 11, 2022
DDHQ	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 20, 2022
538	Шаблон:USRaceRating	June 30, 2022
The Economist	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 28, 2022

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Melanie Stansbury (D)	Michelle Garcia Holmes (R)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 25–28, 2022	372 (LV)	± 5.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50%	40%	2%Шаблон:Efn	8%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|54%	43%	3%Шаблон:Efn	–
Research & Polling Inc.	October 20–27, 2022	410 (LV)	± 4.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48%	42%	–	9%

District 2

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities of Las Cruces, Carlsbad, and Alamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs of Albuquerque. The incumbent was Republican Yvette Herrell, who had flipped back the district from Xochitl Torres Small (who had in turn narrowly defeated her for the seat in a race to replace a Republican incumbent in 2018) with 53.7% of the vote in 2020. The new 2022-2032 lines for the district made it more competitive for Democrats, with Vasquez defeating Herrell in a narrow race that was too close to call until the next afternoon.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Yvette Herrell, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Gabe Vasquez, Las Cruces city councilor (2017–2021) and former aide to U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich

Eliminated in primary

• Darshan Patel, physician

Declined

• Joe Cervantes, state senator (2012–present)
• Siah Correa Hemphill, state senator (2020–present) (endorsed Vasquez)
• Howie Morales, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico (2019–present) (running for re-election)
• Xochitl Torres Small, Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development (2021–present) and former U.S. Representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–2021)

General election

Debate

2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district debate

Шаблон:Abbr	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Republican	Democratic
Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Not invited  Шаблон:Colors Invited Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn					scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|	scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"|
					Yvette Herrell	Gabe Vasquez
1	Oct. 21, 2022	KOB (TV)	Matt Grubs Tessa Mentus	YouTube	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 27, 2022
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 26, 2022
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 18, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	June 9, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	August 22, 2022
DDHQ	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2022
538	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2022
The Economist	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 28, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Yvette Herrell (R)	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Undecided Шаблон:Efn	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	July 19 – October 28, 2022	October 31, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49.4%	45.3%	5.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Herrell +4.1

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Yvette Herrell (R)	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 25–28, 2022	302 (LV)	± 5.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54%	41%	1%Шаблон:Efn	4%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54%	44%	2%Шаблон:Efn	–
Research & Polling Inc.	October 20–27, 2022	410 (LV)	± 4.8%	45%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47%	–	8%
Siena College/New York Times	October 20–24, 2022	398 (LV)	± 5.5%	47%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48%	–	5%
Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	September 20–26, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	–	12%
Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 19–25, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	–	11%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Undecided
GBAO (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 9, 2022	–	–	46%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49%	5%

District 3

Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:See also The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities of Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, and Clovis, as well as parts of the Navajo Nation. The incumbent is Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Teresa Leger Fernandez, incumbent U.S. Representative (2021–present)

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Alexis Martinez Johnson, environmental engineer, rancher, and nominee for this district in 2020

Disqualified

• Jerald Steve McFall, farmer

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 27, 2022
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 27, 2022
Politico	Шаблон:USRaceRating	April 18, 2022
RCP	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 1, 2022
Fox News	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 11, 2022
DDHQ	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 20, 2022
538	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 30, 2022
The Economist	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2022

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)	Alexis Martinez Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 25–28, 2022	326 (LV)	± 5.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53%	40%	1%Шаблон:Efn	7%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|58%	40%	1%Шаблон:Efn	–
Research & Polling Inc.	October 20–27, 2022	410 (LV)	± 4.8%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|53%	35%	–	10%

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

• Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) for Congress
• Jacquelyn Reeve (R) for Congress
• Louie Sanchez (R) for Congress
• Melanie Stansbury (D) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

• Yvette Herrell (R) for Congress
• Darshan Patel (D) for Congress
• Gabe Vasquez (D) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

• Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) for Congress
• Alexis Martinez Johnson (R) for Congress