Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Colorado
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Colorado
The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third full term, defeating Republican businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009,[1] Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016.[2][3]
Bennet won by a wide margin of nearly 15 points, significantly outperforming his polling. His margin is the highest for a Democrat in a Senate election in Colorado since 1974. This was the first time in Bennet's Senate career where he received a majority of the vote.
Democratic convention
Candidates
Bennet was appointed in 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter following the resignation of Ken Salazar to become the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama. Bennet was then narrowly elected in 2010 for his first full term. In the 2016 election, he was re-elected to a second term with 49.97% of the vote over Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn.
Due to some of his centrist positions, such as his opposition to Medicare for All and support for fracking, Bennet faced a potential challenge from the left, particularly from Joe Salazar, a former state representative. Salazar ultimately opted to run for Colorado's State Senate, and thus Bennet was easily renominated at the Democratic convention.[4]
Nominee
- Michael Bennet, incumbent U.S. Senator[5]
Eliminated at convention
- Karen Breslin, lawyer and university instructor[6]
Declined
- Joe Salazar, former state representative and candidate for Colorado Attorney General in 2018[7][8] (ran for state senate)[9]
Endorsements
Results
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Republican primary
Candidates
Originally, a wide field of candidates declared their intention to run for the Republican nomination, with former Olympian Eli Bremer being thought as the best candidate to take on Bennet. However, instead of gathering the required number of signatures to be placed on the primary ballot, Bremer and most of the other candidates sought to get 30% of the delegate vote at the Colorado GOP convention in April 2022. Due to the wide field of candidates, delegate support was split, with the only candidate to achieve the threshold being State Representative Ron Hanks, while Debora Flora, a radio show host, missed the ballot by a single percentage point, getting 29% of the vote, and Bremer getting third place with 15% of the vote.[10]
With the other candidates eliminated, Ron Hanks and construction CEO Joe O'Dea were the only two candidates on the primary ballot. The contrast between the two Republicans was stark, with Hanks, who supported a complete ban on abortion and echoed former president Donald Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 Presidential election, getting pitted against O'Dea, a moderate who supports LGBT rights, some abortion rights, and did not believe in widespread voter fraud.
Hanks was considered the underdog due to O'Dea consistently outraising him, however he received a boost when Democrats began spending over $4 million to influence the Republican primary, launching ads attempting to drag down O'Dea due to his prior support of Democratic candidates, and prop up Hanks as "too conservative". This was done in the hopes that Hanks would be an easier opponent for Bennet to beat than O'Dea, who can appeal to moderates.[11] This attempt to interfere in the GOP primary was denounced by numerous former Colorado Democratic officials, including former governor Roy Romer, and former Senators Mark Udall, Tim Wirth, and Gary Hart, who previously mounted unsuccessful attempts to win the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988. [12] Ultimately, despite the boost from the Democrats and his attempts to receive the endorsement of Donald Trump, Hanks would lose the nomination to O'Dea by 9 points. He performed best in the rural parts of Colorado, which are typically the most conservative counties that typically vote Republican in landslide margins in general elections, while O'Dea performed best in urban counties, such as Denver.[13]
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Ron Hanks, member of the Colorado House of Representatives for the 60th district (2021–2023)[20][14]
Eliminated at convention
- Eli Bremer, Olympic athlete, U.S. Air Force major and former chair of the El Paso Republican Party[21]
- Gino Campana, former Fort Collins council member, city developer[21]
- Deborah Flora, former radio host[21]
- Juli Henry, nonprofit founder[21]
- Gregory J. Moore, Colorado Christian University professor[21]
- Peter Yu, businessman and nominee for Colorado's 2nd congressional district in 2018[21]
- Daniel Hendricks, small business owner[22]
Withdrew
- Erik Aadland, army veteran[23][24] (became Republican nominee for Colorado's 7th congressional district)
Declined
- Ken Buck, U.S. Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district, chair of the Colorado Republican Party, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010[25]
- Heidi Ganahl, University Regent (ran for Governor)[26]
- Cory Gardner, former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2015–2021)
- Darryl Glenn, former Colorado Springs city councilman (2005–2011), former El Paso County commissioner (2011–2019), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[27] (ran for Mayor of Colorado Springs)
- Bill Owens, former governor of Colorado (1999–2007)[28]
- Steven Reams, Weld County sheriff (ran for re-election)[29]
- Clarice Navarro, former state Representative [30]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ron Hanks |
Joe O'Dea |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 15–20, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 14% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|47% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box total no change Шаблон:Election box end
General election
In recent years, Colorado has started voting more Democratic in the federal level, transitioning from a purple state to a moderately (and increasingly strongly) blue state, and the shift was largely contributed to the left-wing shift in the growing Denver metropolitan area, with President Joe Biden winning the state by 13.5% in the 2020 election, almost nine points to the left of the national result of around 4.9%. Prevailing in 2010, a year where Colorado was considered a swing state and Democrats performed very poorly, Bennet had a generally strong electoral history. He also outperformed Hillary Clinton on the same ballot in 2016. Ahead of 2022, Bennet was generally favored to win, though polling showed him as potentially vulnerable, largely due to the state of the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings.[31] Colorado had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Cory Gardner in 2014, another very strong year for Republicans nationwide and while Colorado was still considered a swing state, even then Gardner only won narrowly. Bennet ultimately won reelection by a comfortable 14.6 point margin, outperforming Biden's victory two years prior and his own polling averages. Bennet also flipped three counties he had lost in his 2016 re-election bid, flipping Grand County by a narrow 1.1% and Chaffee County, and Garfield County by wide margins. However, O'Dea did narrowly flip Conejos County by a slim 1%.[32]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[33] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 18, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[34] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | June 29, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[36] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP[37] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2022 |
| Fox News[38] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 18, 2022 |
| The Economist[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Joe O'Dea (R) |
Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 26 – November 5, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50.0% | 44.3% | 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bennet +5.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | July 26 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.3% | 42.9% | 5.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bennet +8.4 |
| 270towin | November 1–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51.0% | 43.4% | 6.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bennet +6.6 |
| Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50.8% | 43.5% | 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Bennet +7.3 | ||
- Graphical summary
- Michael Bennet vs. Ron Hanks
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Ron Hanks (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Dead linkШаблон:Efn-ua | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% | 37% | 13% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 19–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | 34% | 13% |
- Michael Bennet vs. Eli Bremer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Eli Bremer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 19–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 35% | 17% |
| co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 9–12, 2021 | 742 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|40% | 32% | 22% |
- Michael Bennet vs. Gino Campana
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Gino Campana (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling (D) | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 40% | 14% |
- Michael Bennet vs. Lauren Boebert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Lauren Boebert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 38% | 11% |
- Michael Bennet vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) Шаблон:WebarchiveШаблон:Efn-ua | June 2–8, 2022 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 37% | 14% |
| Cygnal (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | January 12–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 9% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 40% | 12% |
- Michael Bennet vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Michael Bennet (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | July 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 42% | 14% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 9–12, 2021 | 742 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 42% | 14% |
Debates
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||
| Michael Bennet | Joe O'Dea | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 28, 2022 | Colorado State University | Youtube | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes | |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party linkШаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box totalШаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Bennet won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[42]
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:Colorado elections Шаблон:2022 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 14,0 14,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Joe O’Dea beats Ron Hanks in Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, Colorado Sun, 28 June 2022.
- ↑ In debate between Senate hopefuls Ron Hanks and Joe O’Dea, it’s hardcore vs. softcore, Colorado Sun, 22 June 2022.
- ↑ U.S. Senate candidate Joe O’Dea believes abortions should be legal through 20 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions after, Colorado Sun, 19 August 2022.
- ↑ $5 million in TV ads attacking Joe O’Dea in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race are hitting the airwaves, Colorado Sun, 23 September 2022.
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ 21,0 21,1 21,2 21,3 21,4 21,5 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
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