Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Nevada
Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsNV
The 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election to a second term, narrowly defeating Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.[1] Nevada's election results were slowed due to state law that allowed voters to submit mail-in ballots until November 12, and allowed voters to fix clerical problems in their mail-in ballots until November 14, 2022.[2]
According to exit polls, Cortez Masto won 62% of Latinos, 64% of young voters, and 52% of women.[3]
Cortez Masto made protecting abortion rights a central issue of her campaign.[4] Many experts and forecasters saw Nevada as Republicans' best chance to pickup a seat in the Senate. Despite Laxalt leading in most polls, Cortez Masto narrowly won re-election by a little less than 8,000 votes.
Cortez Masto flipped Washoe County, improving her 2016 voteshare by 1.7%, although Laxalt improved on Joe Heck's margin in rural counties, and performed slightly better in Clark County. The incumbent Democrat's improvements in Washoe compared to 2016 proved to be decisive, as her victory margin there was slightly larger than in Nevada as a whole. With a margin of 0.77%, this was the closest Senate race of the 2022 election cycle and the closest Senate election in Nevada since 1998.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Catherine Cortez Masto, incumbent U.S. Senator (2017–present) and former attorney general of Nevada (2007–2015)[5]
Eliminated in primary
- Stephanie Kasheta[6]
- Corey Reid[6]
- Allen Rheinhart, Black Lives Matter activist and candidate for governor in 2014, U.S. Senate in 2016, and Nevada's 1st congressional district in 2020[7]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box None of These Candidates with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Adam Laxalt, former attorney general of Nevada (2015–2019), nominee for governor in 2018, and son of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici and grandson of former U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Sam Brown, U.S. Army veteran, Purple Heart recipient, candidate for of the Texas's 102nd House of Representatives district in 2014, and great-grandson of Paul Brown[9][10]
- William "Bill" Conrad, retired combat veteran [6]
- Bill Hockstedler, vice president of Ambient Clinical Analytics, sheriff's office volunteer, and U.S. Air Force veteran[11]
- Sharelle Mendenhall, pageant queen[9][10]
- Tyler Perkins[6]
- Carlo Poliak, retired sanitation worker and perennial candidate[6]
- Paul Rodriguez[6]
Declined
- Mark Amodei, U.S. Representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2011–present) (ran for re-election)[12]
- Heidi Gansert, state senator for the 15th district (2016–present)[13]
- Dean Heller, former U.S. Senator (2011–2019) and former U.S. Representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2007–2011) (ran for governor)[14]
- Ben Kieckhefer, state senator for the 16th district (2010–2021)[13]
- Brian Sandoval, president of the University of Nevada, Reno (2020–present) and former governor of Nevada (2011–2019)[13]
Debates
| 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Nevada debatesШаблон:Efn-lr | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Organizer | Location | Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Colors Withdrawn |
Source | ||||||
| Sam Brown | Bill Conrad | Bill Hockstedler | Adam Laxalt | Sharellen Mendenhall | |||||||
| 1 | April 7, 2022 | Redmove Nevada | Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, Reno | A | P | P | A | P | [15][16] | ||
| 2 | May 9, 2022 | Nevada Newsmakers | Nevada Newsmakers Studio, Reno | P | N | N | P | N | [17][18] | ||
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Sam Brown |
Bill Hockstedler |
Adam Laxalt |
Sharelle Mendenhall |
Other Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | April 25 – June 7, 2022 | June 10, 2022 | 30.3% | 1.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican;"|51.3% | 3.0% | 24.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican;"|Laxalt +21.0 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Sam Brown |
Bill Hockstedler |
Adam Laxalt |
Sharelle Mendenhall |
Шаблон:Nowrap Candidates |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | June 6–7, 2022 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 3% | 2% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| University of Nevada Reno | May 17–27, 2022 | 368 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 31% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|57% | 7% | – | – | – |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 10–12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 3% | 8% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 11% |
| Emerson College | April 30 – May 2, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 4% | – | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 15% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 26% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 3% | – | 5% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | April 24–26, 2022 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 20% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|57% | 1% | 9% | – | 12% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 13–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|57% | 1% | – | 3% | 15% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 19–26, 2022 | 230 (RV) | ± 6.5% | 14% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|37% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|49% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller |
Adam Laxalt |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | December 9–11, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 25% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 6% | 25% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box None of These Candidates with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Neil Scott, accountant[6]
Independent American primary
Candidates
Declared
- Barry Rubinson, nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020[6]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Barry Lindemann, asset manager[19]
Not on ballot
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[21] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[22] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | February 24, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico[24] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[25] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[26] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[27] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 22, 2022 |
| 538[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | September 22, 2022 |
| The Economist[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 6, 2022 |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Catherine Шаблон:Nowrap |
Adam Laxalt (R) |
Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 24 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.8% | 5.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Laxalt +3.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight | October 5 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47.3% | 6.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Laxalt +1.4 |
| 270towin | October 27 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 45.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.8% | 6.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Laxalt +3.8 |
| Average | 45.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.3% | 6.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Laxalt +2.9 | ||
- Graphical summary
- Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Sam Brown
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Catherine Шаблон:Nowrap |
Sam Brown (R) |
Шаблон:Nowrap Candidates |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Nevada, Reno | May 17–27, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47% | 24% | – | 13% | 16% |
| OH Predictive Insights Шаблон:Webarchive | April 1–9, 2022 | 748 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|42% | 34% | – | – | 24% |
| Suffolk University | April 2–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 5% | – | 17% |
Results
Cortez Masto won urban Clark County and Washoe County, home to Las Vegas and Reno respectively. Combined, these two counties contain more than 80% of the state's total population. While her margin in Clark County fell from 11% in 2016 to 8% in this election, she flipped Washoe County, which she lost by less than 1% in 2016, with a 4% margin of victory. Laxalt won by landslide margins in Nevada's rural counties, but they are lightly populated and cast less than 16% of the total vote. In the end, Cortez Masto's victories in the state's two largest counties gave her too large a lead for Laxalt to overcome in rural Nevada. As of 2023, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box None of These Candidates with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box endШаблон:AlignШаблон:Collapse top
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Cortez Masto won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[30]
| District | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 52% | 44.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Dina Titus |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Шаблон:Ushr | 42.7% | 53.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Mark Amodei |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 51.7% | 45.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Susie Lee |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Шаблон:Ushr | 50.8% | 45.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Steven Horsford |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2022 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 9,0 9,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ 10,0 10,1 Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 13,0 13,1 13,2 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 20,0 20,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
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