Английская Википедия:2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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Шаблон:See alsoШаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in Wisconsin sidebar
The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes.[1]
In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022.[2] The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried the state in the presidential election.[3]
Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than 3% in the polling average. Johnson ultimately won the election by just 26,718 votes, or 1%. This victory was the closest of Johnson's three Senate victories.Шаблон:Cn
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. senator[4]
Eliminated in primary
- David Schroeder, former educator
Disqualified
Withdrawn
- John Berman, electronic hardware designer, test engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020[8]
Declined
- David Beth, Kenosha County sheriff[9]
- Sean Duffy, former U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr[10][11]
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (running for re-election; endorsed Johnson)[12]
- Eric Hovde, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012
- Rebecca Kleefisch, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin (running for governor; endorsed Johnson)[12][13][14]
- Kevin Nicholson, businessman, former member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)[12]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (running for re-election; endorsed Johnson)[12]
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin[15]
Endorsements
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Kou Lee, restaurant owner[17]
- Adam Murphy, business owner[18]
- Steven Olikara, founder and CEO of Millennial Action Project[19][20]
- Peter Peckarsky, attorney and candidate for Chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017[18]
- Darrell Williams, Wisconsin Emergency Management administrator[21]
Did not file
- Chantia Lewis, Milwaukee Common Councillor[22]
Withdrew
- Gillian Battino, radiologist[23] (running for state treasurer)[24]
- Sarah Godlewski, State Treasurer of Wisconsin (endorsed Barnes)[25][26]
- Chris Larson, state senator from the 7th district (endorsed Barnes)[27][28]
- Alex Lasry, senior vice president of the Milwaukee Bucks and former intern in the Obama administration (endorsed Barnes)[29][30]
- Tom Nelson, Outagamie County Executive, former Majority Leader of the Wisconsin Assembly, and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin in 2010 and for Шаблон:Ushr in 2016 (endorsed Barnes)[31]
- Jeff Rumbaugh, disability rights activist and candidate for governor in 2018 (endorsed Nelson)[32]
Declined
- Josh Kaul, Attorney General of Wisconsin (running for re-election)[33]
- Ron Kind, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr[34]
- Mark Pocan, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (running for re-election)[35]
- Tony Evers, Governor of Wisconsin (running for re-election)[36]
Fundraising
| Candidate | Unitemized (<$200) individual contributions | Itemized (>$200) individual contributions | Self funding | Coverage ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandela Barnes | $2,668,973.10 | $3,305,480.72 | $0.00 | Coverage ending: 06/30/2022[37] |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Mandela Barnes |
Sarah Godlewski |
Alex Lasry |
Tom Nelson |
Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
| Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
| Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes | |||||||||||||||
| Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | July 12–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39% | 12% | 25% | 5% | – | 18% | ||||||
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | July 1–7, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|40% | 12% | 16% | 6% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 22% | ||||||
| Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 381 (LV) | ± 6.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|25% | 9% | 21% | 7% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|36% | ||||||
| Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | May 18–22, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|34% | 18% | 31% | 5% | – | 12% | ||||||
| Marquette University | April 19–24, 2022 | 311 (LV) | ± 6.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|19% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|49% | ||||||
| Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 16–23, 2022 | 449 (LV) | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|38% | 9% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 26% | ||||||
| Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 23–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|35% | 7% | 27% | 7% | – | 24% | ||||||
| Marquette University | February 22–27, 2022 | 362 (LV) | ± 5.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|23% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|49% | ||||||
| Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | December 8–16, 2021 | 842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|40% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 29% | ||||||
| Data for Progress (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 11–15, 2021 | 524 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39% | 5% | 16% | 6% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 29% | ||||||
| Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | November 2021 | – (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|37% | 5% | 15% | 7% | – | 36% | ||||||
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 28–30, 2021 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|37% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|38% | ||||||
| Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 2021 | – (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|43% | 5% | 4% | 7% | – | 41% | ||||||
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin no change Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no change Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box candidate with party link no changeШаблон:Election box total no changeШаблон:Election box end
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[38] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[39] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[41] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[42] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[43] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[44] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | August 17, 2022 |
| 538[45] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | October 20, 2022 |
| The Economist[46] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 1, 2022 |
Debates
| Шаблон:Abbr | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Шаблон:Colors Participant Шаблон:Colors Absent Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee Шаблон:Colors Invitee Шаблон:Color box Withdrawn |
scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | scope="col" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||
| Ron Johnson | Mandela Barnes | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 7, 2022 | Wisconsin Broadcasters Association | Jill Geisler | Youtube | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
| 2 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Marquette University | Charles Benson Shannon Sims |
C-SPAN | Шаблон:Yes | Шаблон:Yes |
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Mandela Barnes (D) |
Undecided Шаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | October 24 – November 5, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Johnson +3.6 |
| FiveThirtyEight | August 15 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.4% | 47.0% | 2.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Johnson +3.4 |
| 270toWin | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.2% | 46.6% | 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Johnson +3.6 |
| Average | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50.3% | 46.7% | 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Johnson +3.6 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Mandela Barnes (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 49% | – | 1% |
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Data for Progress (D) | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 2.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 47% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–4, 2022 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| Marquette University | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 45% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| 679 (LV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 48% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | ||
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 27–31, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | – | 6% |
| Siena College | October 27–31, 2022 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 45% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 45% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| Wick Insights | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 46% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 46% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 46% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | – | ||||
| Patriot Polling | October 20–23, 2022 | 801 (RV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 43% | – | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 14–22, 2022 | 1,376 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 46% | – | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 13–17, 2022 | 905 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 1% |
| 714 (LV) | ± 4.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 49% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | – | ||
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | October 7–11, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | – | 5% |
| Marquette University | October 3–9, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | 5%Шаблон:Efn | 2% |
| 652 (LV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 46% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | ||
| YouGov/CBS News | October 3–7, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 49% | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | September 26–27, 2022 | 574 (V) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 44% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 18–25, 2022 | 1399 (LV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 20–23, 2022 | 999 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 48% | – | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 15–19, 2022 | 1087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 47% | – | 5% |
| Emerson College | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.27% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | September 17–18, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 46% | – | – |
| Siena College | September 14–15, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 11–13, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Civiqs | September 10–13, 2022 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 48% | 1% | 2% |
| Marquette University | September 6–11, 2022 | 801 (RV) | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| 632 (LV) | ± 4.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 48% | – | 3% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 22–25, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | – | 4% |
| Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% | 1% | 4% |
| Marquette University | August 10–15, 2022 | 811 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|51% | 1% | 4% |
| 713 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46% | 1% | 8% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
- Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Sarah Godlewski (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 2% | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 41% | – | 15% |
- Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Alex Lasry (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 8–11, 2021 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 41% | – | 14% |
- Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Tom Nelson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University | June 14–20, 2022 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|44% | 2% | 11% |
| Change Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | March 25–27, 2021 | 1,723 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|48% | – | 5% |
Results
Шаблон:Election box begin Шаблон:Election box winning candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box candidate with party link Шаблон:Election box write-in with party link Шаблон:Election box total Шаблон:Election box hold with party link no swing Шаблон:Election box end
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Columbia (largest municipality: Portage)
- Crawford (largest municipality: Prairie du Chien)
- Lafayette (largest municipality: Darlington)
- Richland (largest municipality: Richland Center)
- Vernon (largest municipality: Viroqua)
By congressional district
Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[48]
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2022 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ 12,0 12,1 12,2 12,3 Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ 18,0 18,1 Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
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